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天赢居:不破3888就还是第三次冲顶
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-23 14:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after reaching the monthly target of 4018, the market is not expected to accelerate quickly but rather enter a consolidation phase to digest overheating and rebuild order through time and turnover [1] - The monthly strategy focuses on avoiding emotional trading and prioritizing discipline, with the goal of managing overheating rather than seeking continuous upward movement [1] Group 2 - The weekly analysis indicates that different indices are in varying stages of consolidation, with the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext leading the recovery after completing their respective digestion phases, while the Shanghai Composite is in a typical topping structure [2] - The strategy for the week highlights that effective risk control is based on following structural trends rather than making predictions, allowing for fluctuations as long as key support levels are maintained [2] Group 3 - The daily analysis identifies 3918 as a critical resistance level and 3888 as a significant support level, with the market transitioning from a repair phase to a topping phase after stabilizing above 3888 [3][4] - The analysis suggests that the optimal strategy is to monitor the market's behavior around these key levels rather than chasing breakouts, focusing on maintaining strength above 3888 [4] Group 4 - The hourly analysis describes a typical healthy pullback pattern during the upward trend, confirming support levels while digesting short-term profit-taking [5] - It is noted that during strong market conditions, the focus should be on confirmation points rather than emotional trading [5] Group 5 - The rotation of market hotspots is centered around two main lines of attack, particularly in technology hardware and metals, indicating a clear trend in sector performance [6] - The strategy emphasizes understanding the rhythm of sector rotation and selectively investing in strong directions while being patient with underperforming sectors [6] Group 6 - The operational strategy advises focusing on sector trends before individual stock trends, with specific guidelines for managing positions based on moving averages [6] - The mindset should prioritize discipline and adherence to rules, emphasizing that the essence of a slow bull market is not daily gains but consistent adherence to a repeatable strategy [6]
天赢居:21天节点的第三次冲顶4018
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-22 16:29
Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with indices moving upward in a restrained manner, indicating a continuation of the recovery trend after reaching the target level of 4018 [1] Monthly Analysis - After hitting the monthly target of 4018 on October 30 and November 14, the market is undergoing a digestion period, which typically lasts 34 to 55 days, characterized by turnover and fluctuations to cool down overheating [1] - The current market remains within a "slow bull framework" and the focus is on digestion and turnover rather than seeking immediate upward acceleration [1] Weekly Analysis - The market is in a washout cycle after reaching a peak, with support from the 21-week moving average, but more time is needed for a stable upward movement [1] - The strategy indicates that while fluctuations are allowed, maintaining key support structures is crucial for future upward movement [1] Daily Analysis - The 3918 level is identified as a critical "gate area," where the convergence of moving averages and trend lines creates significant resistance [1][3] - A strong support structure below 3918 suggests that once the market stabilizes above this level, it can transition from "repair" to "large box oscillation," targeting the 4018 level [3] Hourly Analysis - The market has been consolidating between the 233-hour moving average of 3915 and the 144-hour moving average of 3920, indicating potential for an upward breakout [4] - The current hourly indicators suggest that the market may prefer a period of consolidation or slight pullbacks rather than a continuous upward push [4] Time Cycle Insights - The market has fulfilled the third peak at the 21-day node, and attention should now shift to the 34-day node, which may require preparation for a technical pullback [6] - The actual market movement aligns with the anticipated timing, indicating a delayed but expected upward action [6] Sector and Rotation Analysis - The main offensive sectors include technology hardware and non-ferrous resources, with a focus on communication equipment, semiconductors, and precious metals [8][9] - Defensive stocks are expected to perform well during market resistance phases, indicating a short-term rotation strategy [9] Actionable Strategy - On the index level, support is at 3888, and resistance at 3918, with a focus on strong sectors for potential investment [9] - Individual stock discipline should follow specific moving average guidelines to manage risk effectively [9]