大盘月线仍处在"慢牛蓄势"的主框架中，虽然到了月线黄金目标位需要洗盘55天，但洗盘之后还要向上 挑战慢牛上轨1558（19930216）-2245（20010614）-3067所在4260附近 涨满89周之后洗盘五个星期得到21周均线3848的支撑而再次冲顶，总体还是箱体震荡，冲顶途中以"顺 势持有"为主，等到了箱顶4018再考虑做差价。 日线结构非常清晰，A浪下跌7天，C浪下跌到12月17日刚好也是7天，时间对称后展开反弹，站稳均线 和趋势线密集区3888之后"反弹升级"，确认第三次冲顶4018 。目前从低位反弹了8个交易日，小阳碎步 抬升配合温和放量，说明资金并未撤退，而是典型的"边走边换手"。在日线macd与KDJ保持双金叉之前 持有，5日均线之上持股，8日均线是强弱分水岭，回踩不破并继续冲顶4018，就更符合《天赢居炒股规 律总结》里"关键位多次试探后更容易突破"的节奏。 需要强调的是：重要关口往往要四到五次反复尝试，第三次直接一口气成功的概率通常不高，因此1月5 日前后在4018附近还需要考虑做一次差价。 小时级别因为kdj高位，所以呈现"趋势强、但短线容易震荡"的典型状态：上行通道仍在，但上冲到 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after reaching the monthly target of 4018, the market is not expected to accelerate quickly but rather enter a consolidation phase to digest overheating and rebuild order through time and turnover [1] - The monthly strategy focuses on avoiding emotional trading and prioritizing discipline, with the goal of managing overheating rather than seeking continuous upward movement [1] Group 2 - The weekly analysis indicates that different indices are in varying stages of consolidation, with the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext leading the recovery after completing their respective digestion phases, while the Shanghai Composite is in a typical topping structure [2] - The strategy for the week highlights that effective risk control is based on following structural trends rather than making predictions, allowing for fluctuations as long as key support levels are maintained [2] Group 3 - The daily analysis identifies 3918 as a critical resistance level and 3888 as a significant support level, with the market transitioning from a repair phase to a topping phase after stabilizing above 3888 [3][4] - The analysis suggests that the optimal strategy is to monitor the market's behavior around these key levels rather than chasing breakouts, focusing on maintaining strength above 3888 [4] Group 4 - The hourly analysis describes a typical healthy pullback pattern during the upward trend, confirming support levels while digesting short-term profit-taking [5] - It is noted that during strong market conditions, the focus should be on confirmation points rather than emotional trading [5] Group 5 - The rotation of market hotspots is centered around two main lines of attack, particularly in technology hardware and metals, indicating a clear trend in sector performance [6] - The strategy emphasizes understanding the rhythm of sector rotation and selectively investing in strong directions while being patient with underperforming sectors [6] Group 6 - The operational strategy advises focusing on sector trends before individual stock trends, with specific guidelines for managing positions based on moving averages [6] - The mindset should prioritize discipline and adherence to rules, emphasizing that the essence of a slow bull market is not daily gains but consistent adherence to a repeatable strategy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing controlled fluctuations around the 3900-point level, indicating a balance maintained by key financial sectors, particularly insurance and brokerage firms, amidst mixed trading signals and external economic factors [1][5][32]. Market Performance - As of Wednesday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) was at 3900.50 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points, and the ChiNext Index fell slightly by 0.02% to 3209.00 points [1]. - The SSE showed a narrow trading range of approximately 60 points, with a high of 3936 and a low of 3876, reflecting a typical "doji" candlestick pattern indicating indecision in the market [2][4]. Trading Dynamics - The market's movements are not purely natural but are characterized by a rhythmic push and pull, with selling pressure emerging near the 3930-3950 range and buying support appearing around the 3900 level [3][8]. - The trading behavior suggests that the 3900-point level is a target for market control, with financial heavyweights acting as proxies for index futures to maintain this level [8][12]. Sector Analysis - The insurance and brokerage sectors played a crucial role in the market's performance, with significant movements in stocks like China Ping An and China Life contributing to the index's fluctuations [6][7]. - The real estate sector received a boost from news regarding Vanke's bond extension and rumors of mortgage interest subsidies, which alleviated liquidity concerns and encouraged capital inflow into real estate stocks [9][11]. Investment Sentiment - The market's recovery from the 3876 low to the 3900 level was driven by a chain of events linking news, sector performance, and index movements, rather than a natural emotional recovery [12][13]. - The overall sentiment indicates a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal, with the market remaining in a state of oscillation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend [15][28]. Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to influence market sentiment, with various scenarios projected based on the nature of the rate cut and accompanying guidance [17][19]. - The market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with key support and resistance levels identified around 3870-3880 and 3930-3950, respectively [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the valuation advantages of heavyweight stocks, which can stabilize the market, while also indicating that multiple factors may lead to fluctuations, suggesting a potential return to a range-bound market in October [1]. Group 1 - Chief Investment Advisor Xia Lijun states that heavyweight stocks possess valuation advantages that can help stabilize the market [1]. - Investment Director Jin Jun from Shenzhen Qianhai Bourbon Fund Co., Ltd. mentions that the interplay of multiple factors is likely to cause volatility, predicting a return to a range-bound market in October [1].

Market Review - The market showed a downward trend this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to maintain the psychological level of 3400 points, indicating potential difficulty in sustaining this level without significant trading volume [2] - The micro-cap stock index formed a high-level doji, suggesting caution towards small micro-cap stocks [2] - The Hong Kong stock market formed a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, with the A/H premium reaching a new low, indicating a higher probability of a pullback in Hong Kong stocks or an increase in A-shares to return to a normal range [2] - A short-term head has formed, necessitating vigilance and partial position control, with the 20-week moving average serving as a key support level [2] Sector Analysis - There has been a noticeable acceleration in sector rotation, with over half of the sectors showing movement recently, including anti-tariff, military, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, gaming media, CPO, oil and gas, and precious metals [3] - The trend is weak when sectors retreat, emphasizing the need for quick entry and exit strategies and active sector switching when trends reverse [3] Future Focus - Among various broad indices, the STAR Market has performed the weakest, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, computing power, and robotics, which have been in a weak adjustment trend since March [4] - Financial policies, such as the introduction of growth tiers in the STAR Market and the upcoming listing of new stocks with STAR attributes, may boost interest in semiconductor and technology stocks, although this may take time and requires accompanying trading volume [4] - A defensive approach is recommended before taking offensive positions [4]