TrendForce强调，降低配置规格或推迟硬件升级已成为智能手机和笔记本电脑制造商控制成本的必要手段，对于在存储成本中占比最大的DRAM来说，这 一点尤为明显。在中高端机型中，DRAM容量预计将分别向该市场的最低标准集中，放缓提升速度。其中，高端机型或将放缓往16GB推进的速度，而 12GB内存或将逐渐消失于中端机型，回落至8GB。 受影响最大的将是低端智能手机市场，2026年其入门机型可能会回退至4GB内存。相反，对于入门级笔记本电脑而言，受限于处理器搭配需求和操作系统 的限制，DRAM容量无法迅速缩减。 "等等党真的亏麻了，如果在618换手机就没这么多事了..."有网友说道。 12月11日，TrendForce集邦咨询的最新调查认为，由于内存价格预计在2026年第一季度继续大幅上涨，全球终端产品面临艰巨的成本考验，因此智能手机 和笔记本电脑厂商提高产品价格、降低配置规格，并进一步下调出货量预测目前看来已不可避免，资源优势将向少数龙头品牌高度集中。 TrendForce表示，对于智能手机和个人电脑等消费电子设备，，内存在物料清单（BOM）成本中的占比正日益增加。即使对于盈利能力表现相对优异的苹 果公司而言 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to fully recover by 2025, driven by the growth in terminal device shipments [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Future Asset anticipates that the shipment growth of terminal devices will lead to a comprehensive recovery in the semiconductor industry by 2025 [1] - According to TrendForce, global DRAM industry revenue is projected to reach $31.63 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 17.1% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - The growth in DRAM revenue is attributed to rising contract prices, strong shipment growth, and expanded HBM capacity [1] Group 2: Key Drivers - The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) devices, which have a higher semiconductor content, is expected to be a key driver for the next semiconductor industry upcycle [1] - The growing penetration of AI in data centers and edge devices will further contribute to the demand for semiconductors [1] - Enhanced procurement momentum from PC OEMs, smartphone manufacturers, and chip suppliers is accelerating inventory digestion among DRAM suppliers, leading to a recovery in contract prices [1]

Core Insights - The SW Electronics Index fell by 4.57% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.76 percentage points, with all six sub-sectors showing declines [1] - Innoscience reported significant growth in revenue and profitability for H1 2025, with sales reaching RMB 553 million, a 43.4% increase year-on-year, and a turnaround in gross margin from -21.6% to 6.8% [1] - The company's sales in AI and data center sectors grew by 180% year-on-year, marking it as one of the fastest-growing segments [1] Market Review - The global DRAM industry revenue increased by 17.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reaching USD 31.63 billion, driven by rising contract prices and increased shipment volumes [2] - SK Hynix maintained the top market share at 38.7%, with Q2 revenue of USD 12.229 billion, a 25.8% increase [2] - Samsung's revenue grew by 13.7% to USD 10.35 billion, while Micron's revenue increased by 5.7% to USD 6.95 billion, with market shares of 32.7% and 22% respectively [2] Investment Recommendations - The electronic semiconductor sector is expected to experience a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with potential for profit recovery among related companies [3] - Focus on semiconductor design stocks with low PE/PEG ratios and real performance, including Zhongke Lanyun and Juxin Technology in AIOT SoC chips [3] - Recommendations also include attention to analog chips like Meixin Sheng and Nanchip Technology, as well as key materials companies such as Tongcheng New Materials and Dinglong Co. [3]