This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Happy Wednesday. The restaurant reservation platform wars are heating up, and I'm wondering whether my fascination with this story is a sign that I eat out too often.Stock futures are higher this morning after a positive session yesterday.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:1. Trump's talkUS President Donald Trump, right, and US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from ...

Analysts expect Cava Group (NYSE:CAVA) to report an EPS of $0.03 and revenue of approximately $268.4 million.Despite a projected 17.9% increase in revenue, CAVA's EPS is expected to decline by 40% year-over-year, indicating pressure on profitability.The company's financial metrics such as a P/E ratio of 58.06 and a current ratio of 2.69 highlight its market valuation and liquidity.Cava Group (NYSE:CAVA) is gearing up to announce its quarterly earnings on February 24, 2026. Analysts are forecasting the compa ...

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be divided into two distinct segments, influenced by varying consumer spending behaviors based on income levels [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income individuals are likely to have a decent holiday season, with average salaries rising between 4.5% and 6.7% depending on job stability [2] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumer spending, while the remaining 90% are expected to spend less due to high credit card debt and economic uncertainty [5][6] - Retail sales growth is projected at 4% for the holiday season, but much of this increase will be due to inflation rather than volume, leading to relatively flat real spending [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales growth between 2.9% and 3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% and the 10-year average of 5.2% [8] - The economic landscape is characterized by high inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and spending [8][9] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, which rely heavily on holiday sales for revenue, may face challenges unless they cater to affluent demographics or are located in wealthier areas [10][11] - The disparity in consumer behavior suggests that while some businesses may thrive, others will struggle due to reduced spending from lower-income consumers [9][11]

Group 1: Q3 Earnings Overview - The Q3 earnings season has started positively, with 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, and analysts expect a 13.1% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][9] - Initial expectations were lower, with analysts predicting a 7.9% increase in earnings per share as of September 30 [3] - Companies have reported more positive earnings surprises (82%) than negative ones (18%), with 77% of companies also reporting positive revenue surprises [9] Group 2: Notable Company Earnings - Instacart reported GAAP earnings per share of $0.51, exceeding estimates of $0.50, with revenue of $939 million, surpassing expectations of $933 million [6] - Constellation Energy's stock fell nearly 6% after reporting GAAP earnings per share of $2.97, missing estimates of $3.05, although revenue of $6.57 billion exceeded expectations [12] - Wendy's reported revenue of $549 million, a 3% decline year-over-year but above estimates of $534 million, with earnings per share of $0.24 beating expectations of $0.20 [16][17] - Block's shares fell 15% after reporting earnings per share of $0.54 on revenue of $6.11 billion, missing estimates of $0.68 per share and $6.31 billion in revenue [23] - Airbnb's stock rose 5% as it reported 133.6 million nights booked, a 9% increase year-over-year, driven by international bookings [32][33] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The earnings growth rate for Q3 is on track to increase from Q2, driven by tech enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and ongoing tariff concerns [10] - Consumer-facing companies are experiencing pressures from affordability and sentiment, with mentions of government shutdown impacts increasing [11] - Under Armour reported a net loss of $0.04 per share, with revenue declining 4.7% year-over-year, attributed to challenging consumer demand [35][36]

Core Insights - Shake Shack reported record revenue of $356 million in Q2 2025, exceeding analyst expectations of $354 million, with adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share compared to the consensus of $0.38 per share [1] - The company experienced a same-store sales growth of 1.8%, which fell short of the expected 2%, leading to a significant drop in share price by nearly 15% on the earnings report day [2] - Despite the disappointing share performance, Shake Shack's net income grew by 77% last quarter, indicating strong underlying business performance [4] Financial Performance - Shake Shack's revenue grew by 12.6% year over year, and the company added 63 stores, marking an 11.5% increase in store count [1] - The company has raised menu prices multiple times, including a 3% increase in the most recent quarter, contributing to revenue growth that has nearly doubled since Q1 2022 [8] - Shake Shack's restaurant-level profit margin increased by 190 basis points to 23.9%, significantly higher than the average fast-casual dining sector margin of 6% to 9% [13] Expansion Plans - Management announced plans to operate or license 1,500 stores, a significant increase from the 330 stores currently open, with 80 to 90 new locations planned for this year [11] - The current rate of store openings is the fastest in the company's 21-year history, indicating strong growth potential [12] Market Position and Valuation - Shake Shack's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio just shy of 200, compared to 28 for the S&P 500, suggesting a high valuation [15] - The company is guiding for 20 to 25 new restaurant openings and 14% revenue growth for the third quarter, with low-single-digit same-store sales growth expected [16] Customer Loyalty - Shake Shack has demonstrated strong customer loyalty, being recognized as having the most loyal customer base among fast-casual dining chains [9] - This loyalty is crucial for the company's pricing power, allowing it to raise prices without losing customers [8]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill is a significant player in the fast-casual dining sector, focusing on fresh ingredients and customizable menu options, but faces intense competition from chains like Cava Group and Sweetgreen [1] - UBS has lowered its price target for Chipotle from $65 to $56, indicating a potential upside of 33.78% from the current trading price of $41.86, despite a 35% decline since its peak in December [2] - The leadership transition to CEO Scott Boatwright has coincided with a 4% decrease in comparable restaurant sales in Q2 2025, raising concerns about the company's high valuation of 37 times earnings and 4.7 times sales [3] - Chipotle's stock has declined by 32% this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 13% rise, highlighting market concerns regarding its growth prospects [4] - The company is pursuing international expansion and new menu items to drive growth, but investor concerns remain regarding its premium valuation amid slowing growth and traffic trends [5] Financial Performance - Chipotle maintains a strong financial foundation with robust margins and a solid balance sheet, despite the stock's significant decline [4] - The company's high valuation and slowing growth have made investors wary, particularly in light of economic uncertainty [6]

Group 1: Workday (WDAY) - Workday announced a $4 billion increase in its buyback authorization, bringing the total buyback capacity to $5 billion, which is 8% of its market capitalization [1][2] - The company plans to utilize this buyback capacity through fiscal 2027, indicating a commitment to significant buyback spending over the next 16 months [2] - Workday's buyback spending in the last two quarters was approximately $961 million, an 86% increase compared to the previous two quarters [3] Group 2: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - Chipotle announced an additional $500 million share repurchase authorization, with a total buyback capacity of around $750 million as of September 15 [6] - The company's buyback pace has increased significantly, spending an average of $465 million quarterly over the past four quarters compared to $190 million in the preceding eight quarters [7] - Chipotle's stock price has seen a decline of over 20% from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2025, suggesting the company sees value in shares around the $50 mark [8] Group 3: TKO Group (TKO) - TKO Group is planning a $1 billion buyback program, with $26 million already executed, representing 4% of its market capitalization [11][12] - The majority of the buyback will be conducted through an accelerated repurchase program, expected to be completed by December [12] - TKO's forward P/E ratio is 36x, which is below its historical average of 41.5x, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [13]

Core Viewpoint - Wingstop demonstrated strong revenue growth in Q1 FY2025, but same-store sales growth and rising costs raise concerns about future profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 17.4% year-over-year to $171.1 million in Q1 FY2025, up from $145.8 million in Q1 FY2024 [3]. - Net income surged by 221% to $92.3 million, translating to $3.24 per diluted share [1][6]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 18.4% to $59.5 million, indicating effective operational management [3][8]. - System-wide sales reached $1.30 billion, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the previous year [3][6]. Same-Store Sales and Costs - Same-store sales grew by only 0.5% in Q1 FY2025, a significant decline from a 21.6% increase in the same quarter last year [2][7]. - The cost of sales increased to 76% of sales, up from 74.5% in the prior fiscal first quarter, raising concerns about profitability [8]. Business Model and Expansion - Wingstop operates a predominantly franchised model, with 98% of locations being franchise-run, which supports high operating margins and consistent cash flow [4]. - The company aims to expand to over 6,000 domestic outlets and 4,000 international locations, projecting a global unit growth rate of 14% to 15% [4][9]. Digital Strategy - The company focuses on digital sales and customer engagement, with digital channels accounting for 72% of system-wide sales in Q1 FY2025 [5]. - Significant investments in technology and advertising are being made to sustain same-store sales growth [5]. Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about expansion despite a challenging macroeconomic environment that may impact consumer spending [9][10]. - No specific forward guidance on earnings or revenue was provided, with a focus on strategic expansion and digital transformation [10].