August 4, 2025 11:02 AM GMT China/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific Southbound Trading Tracking The month of July saw inflows to the 27 major HK-listed consumer stocks we cover in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Overall trends for July 1-31: Average Southbound holdings as a percentage of free float were up by 0.8ppt MoM last month for the 66 major HK-listed consumer stocks eligible for Connect trading (35 under our coverage). 2025 YTD: Average net flows (simple average) as a percentage of fre ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the industry, with industrial production rated at 0, fixed asset investment at -1, and retail sales at +2 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's industrial production and fixed asset investment missed market expectations, while retail sales showed significant growth, indicating a divergence in economic performance across sectors [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policy in stimulating domestic demand, particularly through consumer goods trade-in programs, amidst ongoing deflationary pressures and a prolonged downturn in the property market [1][17]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.8% year-on-year in May from 6.1% in April, primarily due to slowing export growth linked to increased US tariffs [8][11]. - Sequentially, IP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month non-annualized in May [8]. - Key sectors such as electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing experienced slower output growth, overshadowing gains in automobile production [8][11]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May from 3.6% in April, driven mainly by declines in infrastructure and property investments [10][11]. - Manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 7.8% year-on-year in May, contrasting with the overall slowdown in FAI [10]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth surged to 6.4% year-on-year in May, significantly above market consensus, driven by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment [11][12]. - The growth in online and offline goods sales improved, with notable increases in restaurant sales revenue as well [11]. - The report cautions that the recent retail sales improvement may not be sustainable due to potential payback effects and funding shortages in consumer goods trade-in programs [1][11]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with property sales declining by 3.3% year-on-year in volume and 5.9% in value terms in May [13]. - New home starts and completions also showed significant year-on-year declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [13]. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in May from 5.1% in April, reflecting seasonal patterns, while the unemployment rate for migrant workers increased slightly [14][17]. - Youth unemployment rates showed some moderation but are expected to rise amid the upcoming college graduation season [14][17].

Group 1 - The core function of brand management is to control pricing across all channels, as price chaos indicates a loss of control over the pricing system, leading to market disorder [1] - Price chaos results in a broken channel profit chain, with online low-price promotions causing significant declines in offline store traffic and profits for distributors [3] - Brand value dilution occurs when consumers purchase products from low-price channels, leading to skepticism about the brand's premium positioning and a shift towards lower-priced markets [5] Group 2 - The proliferation of counterfeit products and a trust crisis arise from low-price competition, which squeezes the profit margins of genuine products, allowing counterfeiters to thrive [5] - The core causes of channel chaos include insufficient e-commerce awareness and reliance on traditional distribution models, leading to unregulated low-price distribution [8] - An imbalance in profit distribution mechanisms among brands and distributors incentivizes short-term low-price dumping, further complicating price control efforts [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2, net sales decreased by 6%, while organic net sales decreased by 4.6% when excluding unfavorable foreign exchange impacts [21][36] - Adjusted EBITDA was $71.3 million, a decline of $24 million compared to the previous year, excluding investment income [23][36] - Gross margins decreased by 60 basis points to 37.5%, driven by lower volume, higher trade promotions, and inflation [23][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Pet Care reported a 7.1% decrease in net sales, with organic sales down 6.3%, primarily due to softness in the companion animal and aquatics categories [41][42] - Home and Garden net sales decreased by 5.2%, attributed to timing shifts and retailer inventory builds [47][50] - Home and Personal Care saw a 5.1% decrease in reported net sales, with organic net sales down 2.2% due to softness in North America [54][56] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer sentiment in the U.S. weakened, impacting category growth, with consumers seeking value amid economic uncertainty [22][24] - EMEA organic sales for Global Pet Care grew mid-single digits, while North American sales declined low double digits [42][43] - Latin America experienced low double-digit growth in organic net sales, driven by distribution wins and new product launches [57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on protecting its balance sheet and generating free cash flow, targeting approximately $160 million for the year [25][62] - Plans to transition sourcing out of China are underway, with expectations to have minimal exposure by the end of the fiscal year [12][71] - The company aims to leverage its strong balance sheet for potential acquisitions in the pet category, positioning itself as a consolidator in the market [28][67] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current tariff environment and emphasized the importance of maintaining liquidity and a strong balance sheet [19][70] - The company anticipates that the challenges related to tariffs will be resolved in the coming quarters, particularly for the Global Pet Care and Home and Garden segments [70][72] - Management remains optimistic about future growth opportunities despite current economic volatility [74] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares year-to-date, returning over $1.28 billion to shareholders since the HHI transaction [32][33] - Adjusted diluted EPS decreased to $0.68, driven by lower adjusted EBITDA and operating income [37][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any areas where you see yourself competitively advantaged versus your peers given the new landscape? - Management indicated that while the playing field is level, the company's scale and strong brand presence provide a competitive advantage in securing supply outside of China [79][82] Question: How is the company positioned to handle the current tariff situation? - Management highlighted that the company is well-prepared to transition sourcing and expects to have minimal exposure to China in the near future, which is seen as a competitive advantage [79][80]

建筑业 1月—2月份，在主要用钢行业中，建筑业继续下行、制造业平稳增长。其中，房地产主要指标同比继续 下降，降幅有所收窄；基础设施建设投资、电力投资保持增长；机械行业增加值保持增长，机电产品出 口额增长；汽车产量实现较快增长，其中新能源汽车产量继续大幅增长，汽车出口量增速下降；家电行 业三大白电(洗衣机、空调、冰箱)产量均保持增长，家电出口增幅有所收窄；集装箱产量保持增长。 家电行业 1月—2月份，家电行业三大白电产品产量同比均有所上升。其中，洗衣机产量为1852万台，同比增长 12.7%；空调产量为4128万台，同比增长9.0%；冰箱产量为1512万台，同比增长11.7%。家电产品出口 量同比增长9.4%，增幅较上年同期有所收窄。 1月—2月份，机械工业增加值保持增长，多数产品产量同比增长。机电产品出口额共计2.3万亿元，同 比增长5.4%，占总出口额的60.0%，多数产品出口量同比增长。 汽车行业 1月—2月份，我国生产汽车455.3万辆，同比增长16.2%。其中，乘用车产量为393.6万辆，同比增长 17.2%；商用车产量为61.7万辆，同比增长10.2%。新能源汽车产量保持快速增长，同比增长52.0% ...