Core Viewpoint - The market performance after the National Day holiday is generally positive, with historical data indicating a high probability of gains in major indices [1]. Market Performance - Over the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have shown a 70% probability of rising on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with 60% and 70% probabilities of gains over the subsequent five trading days, respectively [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded five years of gains and five years of losses in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index had seven years of gains and three years of losses [2]. Historical Index Changes - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index on the first trading day after the holiday varied, with notable years including: - 2015: +2.97% - 2018: -3.72% - 2024: +4.59% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index also showed fluctuations, with: - 2015: +4.07% - 2018: -4.05% - 2024: +9.17% [2]. Sector Performance - The probability of gains in various sectors after the National Day holiday is generally above 50%, particularly in the following sectors: - Computer, Communication, and Electronics [4]. - Banking, Non-bank Financials, and Automotive sectors also show high probabilities of gains in the weeks following the holiday [4]. Investment Outlook - Multiple brokerages have a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, suggesting investors hold stocks during the holiday to better navigate market changes [5]. - Specific sectors recommended for investment include: - Electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors) - Communication (computing power) - Machinery (robots) - Non-ferrous metals (rare and precious metals) - Media (gaming) - Computing (AI applications) [5][6]. - Conservative investors are advised to maintain positions and respond flexibly to market changes after the holiday [6].

非银金融机构存款一般包括证券、信托、 理财、基金等非银机构存放在银行的存款。近年来，存款利 率接连下调，居民存款"搬家"成为了非银金融机构存款增加的一个重要原因。 2024年来，随着债市持续走强，以配置债券为主的固收类理财产品和债券型基金收益水涨船高，持续吸 引资金流入，成为了理财、基金市场最重要的增长极。银行理财登记中心数据显示，2024年末，理财市 场规模较上一年末增加1.43万亿元至29.95万亿元；据wind数据，2024年债券型基金增加1.6万亿元。 据wind数据统计，上半年非银金融机构存款增加值创下近十年同期最高纪录；其中，5月非银金融机构 存款单月增加1.18万亿元，同样创下近十年同期最高纪录。分析指出，随着二季度新一轮存款利率下 调，居民以及部分企业可能将活期存款进一步转向基金、理财等，直接推动了非银存款的增长。 央行披露的数据也体现了存款"搬家"效应。据wind数据，2024年前11个月，非银金融机构存款累计增加 5.76万亿元，较上一年多增3.59亿元。2024年12月，由于监管进一步减少资金空转行为，非银同业活期 存款利率纳入自律管理，存款利率下调，叠加年末资金"回表"银行体系等，非银 ...