证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：李立峰 分析师：张海燕 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521040002 [Table_Title] 3 月 A 股：步入"两会"行情，以"稳"为主要特征 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：春节后，万得全 A 指数放量上涨并突破 1月 26 日高点，显示节后资金观望情绪缓解。融资资金 方面，本周融资余额回到 2.65 万亿元附近，节后三个交易日期间融资净买入规模达 776 亿元。结构上，受益 于涨价逻辑的资源品和算力硬件方向走强。一级行业中，钢铁、有色金属、化工指数涨幅超 7%。大宗商品方 面，2 月以来贵金属、原油价格整体上行，主要地缘风险、美联储政策预期分歧等因素推动。外汇方面，美 元指数在 97 附近震荡，离岸人民币兑美元汇率则延续升值趋势，近期已升破 6.9 关口。 ·市场展望：步入"两会"行情，A 股以"稳"为主要特征。海外地缘冲突升级，或引发短期全球资金的避 险与通胀交易，后续冲突持续时间将成为影响市场的关 ...

Investment Insights - The report discusses the significant upcoming maturity of approximately 67 trillion yuan in household time deposits in 2026, primarily formed after 2020 due to residents' precautionary savings amid uncertainties, with a notable shift from high interest rates above 3% to a low-rate environment where mainstream renewal rates are below 2% [9][15][27] - The potential reallocation of these funds is a focal point of market discussions, as it could impact the preservation and appreciation of household wealth and influence various financial asset prices [9][27] Fund Flow Directions - The report identifies three main directions for the funds from maturing deposits: 1. Renewal of deposits, which remains a default choice for most savers despite low interest rates, as consumption and housing purchases are not expected to dominate in the short term [2][15] 2. Early mortgage repayment, as the current mortgage rates exceed deposit and low-risk investment returns, leading to a high early repayment rate in RMBS, although this is not the primary direction for the funds [17] 3. Investment in both low-risk assets (such as bank wealth management products, bond funds, and insurance) and risk assets (like equity funds and the stock market), with the latter being the most debated potential direction for "deposit migration" [2][15][17] Asset Performance Influence - The ultimate direction of the maturing deposit funds towards low-risk or risk assets will depend on the actual performance of various asset classes, as funds inherently seek to chase better-performing assets and withdraw from underperforming ones [19][27] - Historical market trends indicate that funds tend to rotate based on asset performance, with recent trends showing simultaneous movements in both bond and stock markets due to significant allocations through "fixed income plus" strategies [19][27] Central Bank Perspective - The report highlights that funds from maturing deposits are likely to flow back into the banking system, albeit in a different form, as they transition from household deposits to non-bank institutional deposits [3][20][26] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products are expected to be directed towards fixed-income assets, with a significant portion returning to bank deposits, indicating a structural change rather than a mass exodus from the banking system [3][20][26]

本报记者 彭衍菘 临近春节假期，公募基金市场的申赎格局呈现出罕见的分化图谱。一边是货币市场型基金、债券型基金等低风险产品密 集"闭门谢客"，另一边则是部分权益类基金悄然"开门纳新"。这一现象，不仅是基金管理人应对长假的常规流动性管理举措， 更折射出不同类型资产在当前市场环境下的定位与预期差异。 具体来看，2月11日，64家基金管理人集中发布了近200只基金的申购赎回调整公告。其中，债券型、货币市场型基金合计 150只，占比高达75%。据公告，自2月12日起，将有96只债券型基金新设单日申购限额，24只固收类产品直接暂停申购，直至 2月24日节后恢复。 对此，深圳市前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司公募产品经理朱润康向《证券日报》记者解释说，长假期间固收产品仍正 常计息，若放任大额资金节前集中涌入、节后快速撤离，短期套利资金将显著摊薄存量持有人收益，并可能迫使基金经理在无 法交易底层资产的情况下被动应对赎回，放大净值波动。因此，通过限购"锁住"规模，是保护持有人利益的常规且必要的手 段。 以工银中证同业存单AAA指数7天持有为例，该基金自2月12日起将大额申购限额调降至5万元，待2月24日假期结束后再恢 复至常规的 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年2月2日，上海市基金同业公会理事会合规风控专业委员会2026年度第一次会议暨督察长联席会议 在上海召开。来自中国证监会、上海证监局相关处室负责同志，以及上海地区75家基金公司总经理或公 募基金督察长出席会议。 会议还对2025年上海基金行业业务知识竞赛活动进行总结表彰，为荣获"先进团队""先进个人"等奖项的 公募机构及个人颁发荣誉。 会议指出，合规风控是基金行业高质量发展的根基所在。面对行业发展的新形势与新任务，各机构需聚 焦共性议题、凝聚发展共识，持续夯实内控基础，筑牢风险防线。与会代表围绕行业高质量发展、廉洁 从业、基金销售行为规范、投资纠偏的合理平衡、考核激励机制、公司治理及行业文化建设等议题展开 深入交流，并在多项关键问题上形成共识性意见，为进一步规范行业运作提供了具有实操价值的参考指 引。 会议强调，基金行业必须始终坚守合规风控底线，将投资者利益置于首位，把保护投资者合法权益贯穿 业务发展全流程。各基金公司应进一步加强在基金销售、宣传推介、适当性管理等关键环节的风险防 控，持续精进合规风控专业能力，补齐内控短板；要深 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年2月2日，上海市基金同业公会理事会合规风控专业委员会2026年度第一次会议暨督察长联席会议 在上海召开。来自中国证监会、上海证监局相关处室负责同志，以及上海地区75家基金公司总经理或公 募基金督察长出席会议。 坚守合规风控底线，牢牢秉持投资者利益优先原则 会议指出，合规风控是基金行业高质量发展的根基所在。面对行业发展的新形势与新任务，各机构需聚 焦共性议题、凝聚发展共识，持续夯实内控基础，筑牢风险防线。与会代表围绕行业高质量发展、廉洁 从业、基金销售行为规范、投资纠偏的合理平衡、考核激励机制、公司治理及行业文化建设等议题展开 深入交流，并在多项关键问题上形成共识性意见，为进一步规范行业运作提供了具有实操价值的参考指 引。 会议强调，基金行业必须始终坚守合规风控底线，将投资者利益置于首位，把保护投资者合法权益贯穿 业务发展全流程。各基金公司应进一步加强在基金销售、宣传推介、适当性管理等关键环节的风险防 控，持续精进合规风控专业能力，补齐内控短板；要深入开展风险隐患排查与自查自纠，努力实现风险 早识别、早预警、早处置；要保障网络安 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of public funds is actively continuing ahead of the Spring Festival, with 29 funds set to be launched in the next three weeks, including 10 equity mixed funds and 8 passive index funds [1] - 21 out of the 29 funds belong to equity categories, indicating that equity funds are leading the issuance trend before and after the Spring Festival [1] - The reasons for the active layout of equity funds include attractive market valuations, seasonal inflow of resident funds, and regulatory encouragement for long-term capital to enter the market [1] Group 2 - The equity market in February is expected to continue a rotation pattern, with a potential for upward movement despite a lack of clear catalysts before the Spring Festival [2] - The focus on technology sectors, particularly overseas computing-related areas, is seen as a favorable strategy, with expectations for the "AI+" sector to become more active [2] - The issuance of funds during the Spring Festival has both advantages and disadvantages, with increased investor attention during the holiday but potential delays in the fundraising process due to market closures [3] Group 3 - The public fund industry is projected to develop towards higher quality, tool-oriented, and long-term investment strategies by 2026, with equity products remaining mainstream [3] - The total issuance of fund products is expected to steadily increase, with a continued optimization of structure and a balanced development of actively managed funds and index investment tools [3] - The market share of leading institutions is likely to expand, focusing on new productivity and dividend themes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market is actively launching new equity funds in anticipation of a strong spring market, with a notable increase in the establishment of initiator funds that allow for quicker fundraising and strategic positioning [1][4][5]. Fund Issuance Trends - As of February 9, 2026, 62 fund products are scheduled for subscription, including 41 equity funds, 12 mixed FOFs, and 8 bond funds, indicating a strong focus on equity funds [4][5]. - The issuance of initiator funds has surged, with over 30 initiator funds established since the beginning of the year, primarily focusing on industry themes such as healthcare innovation, consumption, semiconductors, and technology [1][7]. Initiator Funds Characteristics - Initiator funds require a minimum investment of 10 million yuan from the fund company to establish, facilitating quicker setups and allowing companies to capitalize on market opportunities [1][7]. - In February, 7 new funds were established within a short timeframe, with 4 being initiator funds, highlighting the trend of rapid fundraising in the current market environment [5][6]. FOF Market Recovery - The FOF market is showing signs of recovery, with 3 new mixed FOFs launched in February, including two with issuance scales exceeding 2.4 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [8][9]. - The popularity of mixed FOFs reflects a shift in investor demand towards diversified, long-term value growth strategies [9]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict a favorable market performance for A-shares post-Spring Festival, with expectations of increased activity and potential for growth in small-cap and growth sectors [10][12]. - Key investment themes for February include technology, manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on sectors supported by strong earnings fundamentals [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a surge in the issuance of public funds, particularly equity funds, ahead of the Spring Festival, with 43 new funds launched during the period from February 9 to the end of February [1] - Among the new funds, 33 are equity funds, accounting for nearly 80% of the total, with a significant number being actively managed funds [1] - The current market sentiment and continuous funding support are creating a favorable environment for the issuance of equity funds, driven by structural market trends and a shift in investor preferences from traditional savings to equity investments [1] Group 2 - As of February 8, 2023, the issuance momentum for equity funds has been strong, with notable funds like Guangfa Research Smart Mixed Fund raising over 7.2 billion yuan and Huabao Advantage Industry Mixed Fund nearly 5.8 billion yuan [2] - The issuance of configuration products, particularly FOFs, has also increased, with rapid fundraising success attributed to heightened market volatility [2] - Analysts suggest that the Spring Festival effect may enhance market performance, with expectations of a sustained spring rally due to favorable policy outlooks and increased consumer spending [2] Group 3 - Market analysts believe that the short-term fluctuations before the Spring Festival do not alter the positive outlook for the market post-holiday, with many institutions favoring holding positions through the holiday [3] - Three key factors are expected to support corporate profit improvement: expansionary fiscal policies in major economies, easing local government debt pressures, and a potential bottoming out of the real estate market in China [3] - Improved demand conditions are anticipated to enhance profitability in sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the context of low manufacturing inventory levels [3]

据公募排排网数据，截至2月4日，公募机构对旗下非货公募基金的净申购总金额达4.74亿元，其中权益 类基金成为布局重点，净申购金额3.78亿元，在总净申购额中占比近八成。 从基金类型来看，混合型基金是此次自购的核心方向，净申购金额2.58亿元，占总金额的54.43%；股票 型基金紧随其后，净申购1.2亿元，占比25.32%，两类权益类基金合计占比达79.75%。 新华财经上海2月5日电（记者魏雨田）2026年开年以来公募机构自购动作积极，其中权益类基金占比近 八成，释放出对A股中长期投资价值的乐观信号。 对于公募机构开年积极加仓权益类基金的原因，深圳市融智私募证券投资基金管理有限公司FOF基金经 理李春瑜分析认为，当前权益市场显现出长期配置价值，相关基金亮眼的业绩表现吸引机构主动布局。 从行业发展角度看，自购行为不仅能帮助公募机构稳定产品规模、提振市场信心，也是行业加强投研能 力建设、适配高质量发展要求的具体体现。 李春瑜进一步表示，这一现象释放出多重信号：首先，明确传递了公募机构对A股市场中长期投资价值 的乐观态度；其次，反映了公募行业正从规模扩张转向提升质量与长期业绩的竞争阶段；最后，它不仅 表明了资金对权 ...

◎记者 朱妍 春节未至，公募基金的"红包"率先到来。数据显示，2026年以来，公募基金分红金额同比大幅提升，权 益类基金分红占比近八成。在政策、业绩、行业转型和资金需求共同作用下，公募分红力度加大已成为 行业高质量发展下的一大趋势。 Choice数据显示，2026年以来，截至2月4日，610只公募基金分红630次（不同份额分开计算），分红总 额达到334.64亿元，同比增长37.38%。 权益类基金是年内分红的"主力军"，分红总额已达263亿元，占所有基金分红金额的近八成。其中：股 票型基金的分红额为194.38亿元，在各类产品中遥遥领先；混合型基金分红额达到68.65亿元。同时，在 分红次数方面，今年以来，共有14只基金分红2次及以上，这些产品均为权益类基金。 从单只基金分红额来看，最"大方"的5只产品均为ETF。沪深300ETF华泰柏瑞以98亿元的分红额暂居首 位，沪深300ETF易方达分红额为近45亿元。 排排网旗下融智投资FOF基金经理李春瑜认为，行业正从规模扩张转向"投资者利益优先"，分红已经成 为提升持有体验的关键，被动型产品的发展提升了分红力度。此外，宽基ETF等产品的规模扩大、分红 机制成熟， ...