证券研究报告 2025.12.10 理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 ⚫ 银行 | 低利率时代的业务选择——1H25理财综述 (2025.07.29) 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。 ...

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 临近年底，银行及理财公司纷纷发布公告，密集下调旗下固收类理财产品业绩比较基准。Wind数据显 示，仅12月以来就有超500只理财产品发布业绩基准调整公告，其中多为固收类理财。 与此同时，固收类理财收益表现分化也日渐加剧。整体来看，相比纯债固收类产品，"固收+"理财平均 年化收益率更低且波动浮动加大。而从产品运作模式来看，普益标准数据显示，11月封闭式固收理财近 1 个月年化收益率为3.38%，环比增幅远高于开放式固收理财。 市场人士分析指出，本轮理财业绩基准的密集调整是政策引导和市场环境的双重作用，不是短期的流动 性波动。结合当前流动性宽松的态势和资产荒的大背景，理财行业大概率已经进入持续性的"低基准"周 期，后续差异化定价的策略应该会慢慢显现。这将直接倒逼理财公司加快向"多资产、多策略"转型步 伐，新发固收类理财产品也已告别过去"高基准、粗放式"的阶段，正在进入精细化、分层化与策略化的 新发展时期。 固收理财密集下调业绩基准 渤银理财公告显示，根据当前市场情况决定对"理财有术系列持盈30天最短持有期固收理财产品1号"C 类份额的业绩比较基准进行调整，由此前的2.00%～2.80% ...

内容提要 当前银行理财业务面临的主要问题，一是对新经济参与深度不够，二是纯固收产品收益下降。银行理财机构需积极应对，在投资端开发收益有竞争力且回撤 小的"固收+"产品，在负债端让代销和投资者建立对"固收+"产品的信任度。借助经济结构转型和资本市场高质量发展的机会，加大理财业务对资本市场的 参与力度，实现理财业务的转型和升级，并构筑新的竞争优势。 未来五年不仅是中国经济结构优化升级的决定性时期，更是国内理财机构把握时代机遇、推动业务转型升级的关键窗口期。目前银行理财投资仍以固收类资 产为主，对传统经济增长动能形成有效支撑，但对经济新动能的支撑力度不够。随着科技创新、消费升级等新增长极崛起，亟需增强理财产品对经济新动能 的参与深度，将服务国家战略内化为投资逻辑。银行理财机构可以将发展"固收+"产品作为主要抓手，深度参与权益市场、科创债和消费金融等国家重点支 持的领域，并以股票投资为突破口，向投资者提供更具吸引力的金融产品，助力培育新质生产力。 一、理财业务转型升级的必要性 固收产品投资吸引力下降，理财机构需要打造更具竞争力的产品。随着债券利率下行和债券价差难以持续贡献正收益，固收类理财产品的收益率正在缓慢下 降。 ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者 关注。12月24日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波 动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。 对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现净值波动。12月 24日，北京商报记者注意到，社交平台上有不少投资者留言求助，"买入理财产品前净值一直较为稳 定，入手后净值却出现波动"；也有投资者表示，"本想靠理财增厚收益，没想到持有一个月却收效甚 微"；还有不少持观望态度的投资者直言，"看到多款产品提前终止、净值下跌的消息，现在不敢轻易入 手了，担心本金受损"。 从市场表现来看，Wind数据显示，自11月以来债市开启持续调整模式，12月上旬曾短暂反弹，但中旬 再度走弱。截至12月24日收盘，30年期超长期国债收益率报2.2185%，较前一交易日下跌0.45个基点； 10年期国债收益率企稳于1.835% ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者关注。12月24日， 北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情 形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风 险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 中信证券首席经济学家明明也持相似观点。他表示，近期债市情绪已出现好转，前期调整较大的超长债则开启修复行情， 市场对"跨年行情"的期待重燃。与此同时，近期人民币汇率走强，对债市也构成利多：一方面人民币计价资产吸引力提 升，另一方面货币宽松空间也有所打开，债市仍有修复空间，超长债有望受益于期限利差的回落，更具性价比。 展望2026年债市走势，明明分析称，短期来看，债市面临的扰动因素仍存，权益市场表现较好、通胀预期回升、银行负债 端缩短久期等都是长债的制约因素，但在央行宽松货币政策的支持下，明年长债利率有望迎来阶段性下行行情，全年视角 下长债利率或将先下后上。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现 ...

本报记者 彭妍 对此，中信证券首席经济学家明明向《证券日报》记者表示，这展现了明显的季节性规律，主要是由季末银行考核等因素 引发的资金回表，以及季初资金重新回流理财市场所驱动的。这种"季末回落、季初回升"的模式在过去数年反复出现，预计在 未来仍将是影响银行理财规模变化的长期特征，而非短期偶发现象。 明明进一步表示，11月份理财规模增长的核心因素有两方面：一是季节性规律，历史同期11月份规模通常增加；二是持续 下行的存款利率，使得居民资产配置向收益相对更具吸引力的银行理财倾斜。此外，理财公司通过优化资产配置稳定了产品净 值，增强了投资者信心。 展望后续趋势，明明表示，12月份虽受季末银行考核影响可能出现阶段性回调，但在估值整改窗口期前期的浮盈释放等因 素支撑下，整体规模有望保持稳定；预计年末数天可能出现约8000亿元的短期回撤，明年年初将快速修复。2026年，在存款利 率持续下行的大背景下，居民资产向理财迁移的趋势预计将延续，推动理财规模整体呈现稳步增长态势，全年存续规模有望突 破35万亿元。 需要注意的是，尽管规模增长动力充足，但银行理财收益率或面临压力。上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平对《证券日 报》记者表 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report provides an analysis of the banking wealth management industry for October 2025, highlighting the performance of various financial products, including their net value, issuance, maturity, and ongoing status. Group 1: Break-even Situation - The break-even ratio of wealth management products in October was 0.31%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points month-on-month. The break-even rate for fixed-income products was 0.17%, down 1.89 percentage points, while mixed products were at 2.42%, down 0.24 percentage points. The break-even rate for equity products increased to 21.57% [2][4][6]. Group 2: Issuance Situation - In October 2025, a total of 3,005.71 billion yuan was raised from wealth management products, with an average fundraising scale of 31.8 million yuan, representing a more than 40% increase from the previous month [3][13]. Group 3: Maturity Situation - A total of 877 closed-end RMB wealth management products matured in October, with a performance lower limit compliance rate of 87.76% and a performance median compliance rate of 50.29%. The average annualized return for fixed-income products was 2.88%, while mixed products yielded 2.28% [3][22][24]. Group 4: Ongoing Situation - Equity wealth management products showed the best performance in the first ten months of the year, with an average net value growth rate exceeding 15%, reaching 17.17%. Mixed products saw a slight increase in average net value growth from 4.18% to 4.30%, while fixed-income products rose from 1.81% to 2.01% [30][32]. Group 5: Product Structure - In October, 96.4% of newly issued products were public offerings, while 3.6% were private offerings. Closed-end net value products accounted for 61.9% of the total, with fixed-income products dominating at 98.7% of new issuances [10][11][28]. Group 6: Product Performance - The average net value growth rate for equity products in the first ten months was 17.17%, while mixed products grew by 4.30% and fixed-income products by 2.01%. The average maximum drawdown for fixed-income products was 0.17%, while equity products had a maximum drawdown of 9.28% [30][34].

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management industry is undergoing a transformation towards "multi-asset multi-strategy" approaches to cope with low interest rates, asset scarcity, and high market volatility, aiming to enhance returns and manage risks effectively [4][5][10]. Industry Trends - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of bank wealth management reached 32.13 trillion yuan, with over 80% of funds still allocated to fixed-income assets, highlighting the need for diversification [4]. - The negative effects of the low-interest-rate environment have become apparent, with the performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income products dropping from over 4% at the end of 2021 to approximately 2.4% by September 2023 [4]. Strategic Shifts - The industry consensus is shifting from "asset-driven" to "strategy-combination-driven" approaches, emphasizing the need for diversified asset allocation to enhance returns and reduce risks [5][10]. - Banks are increasingly incorporating alternative assets such as REITs, gold, and overseas investments into their portfolios to achieve a more robust multi-asset strategy [10][12]. Challenges in Implementation - The transition to a multi-asset strategy is not straightforward, as banks face challenges in aligning investment styles between newly recruited equity managers and existing risk management frameworks [7][8]. - Conflicts often arise between investment teams and risk management departments regarding the timing of profit-taking and risk exposure, complicating the implementation of multi-asset strategies [8][9]. Internal Management and Technology - The shift towards multi-asset strategies necessitates a comprehensive overhaul of internal management processes, including trading links, risk control, information disclosure, and compliance operations [13][14]. - The need for automation and advanced technologies like AI is emphasized to manage the complexities of multi-asset investment strategies and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements [13][14]. Risk Management Evolution - A new risk control model is being developed to adapt to the multi-asset strategy, focusing on the individual risk characteristics of different assets and their interactions [14][15]. - The industry is moving towards a more systematic approach to risk management, emphasizing the balance between low risk and high returns [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management sector is undergoing a transformation towards a "multi-asset, multi-strategy" approach to address challenges posed by low interest rates, asset scarcity, and market volatility, necessitating a comprehensive restructuring of investment strategies, asset acquisition, trading processes, risk control, product disclosure, and compliance operations [2][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Transformation - The banking wealth management industry is facing significant challenges due to the low interest rate environment, which has led to a decline in the returns of fixed-income assets, impacting the overall performance of wealth management products [4][5]. - As of the end of Q3 2023, the total scale of bank wealth management reached 32.13 trillion yuan, with over 80% of funds still allocated to fixed-income assets, highlighting the need for diversification [4]. - The transition to a "multi-asset, multi-strategy" model is seen as essential for creating stable and attractive returns in the current market landscape [4][5]. Group 2: Implementation of Multi-Asset Strategies - Banks are actively expanding their investment teams to include equity investments, quantitative strategies, and alternative assets such as REITs and gold, aiming to enhance returns and mitigate risks [2][11]. - The integration of diverse asset classes requires a shift from traditional fixed-income strategies to a more dynamic approach that emphasizes risk management and performance consistency [5][11]. - The challenges of aligning investment styles between new hires from brokerage firms and the conservative investment philosophy of bank wealth management teams have led to difficulties in achieving cohesive strategies [8][9]. Group 3: Internal Management and Risk Control - The shift to a "multi-asset, multi-strategy" framework necessitates a complete overhaul of internal management processes, including trading links, risk control iterations, information disclosure, and compliance operations [14][15]. - The complexity of managing diverse investment strategies requires advanced technology solutions, such as AI and automation, to enhance operational efficiency and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements [15][16]. - A new risk control model is being developed to adapt to the multi-asset environment, focusing on the unique risk characteristics of different assets and strategies while ensuring low correlation among them to achieve better risk diversification [16][17].

Group 1: Ningde Times (300750.SZ) - Power Equipment - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.62% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.549 billion yuan, up 41.2% year-on-year and 12.26% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 690.74 billion yuan, 914.61 billion yuan, and 1,096.66 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 15.14, 20.04, and 24.03 yuan [7] Group 2: Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Beauty and Personal Care - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 57 million yuan, down 3.89% year-on-year [9] - Offline channels showed strong growth with revenue of 491 million yuan, up 27.20% year-on-year, while online channels faced challenges with revenue of 341 million yuan, down 11.40% year-on-year [10] - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.77, 0.99, and 1.20 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 3: Ruida Futures (002961.SZ) - Non-Bank Financial - The company achieved total revenue of 1.621 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 386 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit for Q3 alone at 158 million yuan, up 17.41% year-on-year [12] - Investment income was a key driver of profit growth, with net income from fees and commissions increasing by 26.6% [13] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 470 million yuan in 2025, up 22.9% year-on-year, maintaining a "buy" rating [14] Group 4: Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) - Construction Decoration - The company reported revenue of 15.917 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 496 million yuan, down 24.29% year-on-year [16] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 849 million yuan, 971 million yuan, and 1.109 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.23, 1.41, and 1.61 yuan [18]