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Will Elevated Costs Undermine The TJX Companies' Off-Price Edge?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-16 15:45
Core Insights - The TJX Companies is experiencing increased operating costs, particularly in wages and sourcing, impacting its financial performance [1][3] - The company anticipates further declines in gross margin due to tariff-related costs and ongoing inflationary pressures [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 of fiscal 2026, selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose to 19.4% of sales, an increase of 20 basis points from the previous year, primarily driven by higher store payroll costs [1][7] - Gross margin decreased by 50 basis points to 29.5%, influenced by unfavorable inventory hedge adjustments [1] - For Q2 of fiscal 2026, gross margin is projected to decline by another 40 basis points year-over-year to 30% [2][7] - The company expects fiscal 2026 gross margin to be between 30.4% and 30.5%, reflecting a 10-20 basis point drop from the prior year [2][7] Cost Management - The company is implementing mitigation strategies, including pricing adjustments and sourcing shifts, to address cost pressures [2][3] - Ongoing inflation in wages, freight, and tariffs complicates the maintenance of gross margin, necessitating a balance between margin preservation and value positioning [3] Peer Comparison - Dollar General reported an 8.5% year-over-year increase in SG&A in Q1 of fiscal 2025, attributed to higher labor costs and incentive compensation [4] - Burlington Stores experienced a 4.8% year-over-year rise in SG&A, with sourcing costs increasing to $197 million from $183 million [5] Valuation and Estimates - TJX shares have declined by 8.2% in the past month, compared to a 5% decline in the industry [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for TJX is 26.74X, lower than the industry average of 32.42X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings growth of 4.7% for fiscal 2026 and 10.3% for fiscal 2027 [9]
TJX(TJX) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-21 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall comp sales grew 3%, reaching the high end of the company's plan, driven by increased customer transactions across all divisions [7][10] - Pretax profit margin was 10.3%, down 80 basis points but above expectations, while diluted earnings per share were $0.92, exceeding expectations [11][12][13] - Gross margin decreased by 50 basis points primarily due to unfavorable inventory hedges [11] Performance by Business Segment - Marmaxx division saw comp sales increase by 2% with a segment profit margin of 13.7%, down 50 basis points [13][14] - HomeGoods division delivered comp sales growth of 4% with a segment profit margin of 10.2%, up 70 basis points [15] - TJX Canada reported a 5% increase in comp sales, with a segment profit margin of 10.6%, down 170 basis points due to unfavorable foreign exchange [17] - TJX International experienced a 5% increase in comp sales, with a segment profit margin of 4.2%, up 20 basis points [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inventory balance increased by 15%, with inventory per store up 7% compared to last year, indicating strong inventory levels [19] - The company is well-positioned to take advantage of market opportunities despite tariff pressures [9][20] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company remains confident in its long-term growth strategy, emphasizing its value proposition and flexibility in operations [9][21] - The management highlighted the importance of a diverse product mix and strong vendor relationships to navigate the current economic environment [24][26] - The company aims to capitalize on market share opportunities in both the U.S. and international markets [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current tariff and macroeconomic environment, maintaining a positive outlook for long-term growth [9][20] - The company plans to continue investing in growth while returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [19][34] Other Important Information - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for comp sales growth, pretax profit margin, and diluted earnings per share [30][32] - The second quarter is expected to be impacted by tariff pressures, but mitigation efforts are in place [58][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inventory availability in the current environment - Management acknowledged the current challenges but expressed confidence in inventory levels and flexibility to adapt to market changes [40][41][42] Question: Comp trends at Marmaxx - Comp trends improved in March and April, with a strong start to the second quarter noted across all divisions [53][56] Question: Margin trajectory for HomeGoods - Management is optimistic about continued margin improvement for HomeGoods, with strong performance expected [88][89] Question: Direct sourcing and income demographics - Direct sourcing is less than 10% of the business, and the company aims to maintain a balanced mix [77][80] - Sales growth was observed across all income demographics, with a slight lean towards lower-income customers [80][82] Question: Gross margin guidance and customer acquisition - Management indicated that gross margin guidance includes mitigation efforts and that customer acquisition is driven by increased transactions [111][114]