After months of work that included planting seeds, fertilizing fields and spraying weedkillers, Illinois growers on average are facing losses of up to $64 per acre this year, thanks in part to low crop prices and weak exports, according to University of Illinois estimates.About 60 miles (97 km) west of Chicago, where the city and suburbs start to give way to green fields, farmer Ryan Frieders, 49, will be storing much of his beans in bins after previously selling some of his expected harvest at prices below ...

The combination of 20% retaliatory tariffs, as well as value-added taxes (VAT) and most favored nation (MFN) taxes, have pushed China’s overall duty rate on U.S. soybeans to 34% in 2025, the industry group said. U.S. soybean prices for overseas buyers became “prohibitively more expensive” than South American soybean supplies ahead of the U.S. harvest this fall, it added.Global protein demand has surged over the past three decades, and the U.S. is well positioned to help meet it — but retaliatory tariffs hav ...

For the farmers, the changing market share dynamics isn’t personal, it’s just business, according to Ryan Loy, assistant professor and extension economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.Soybeans accounted for nearly 20% of the U.S.’s cash crop receipts in 2024, raking in $46.8 billion, according to data from the USDA. About one quarter of all soybean exports from the U.S. go to China, but retaliatory tariffs from China as a result of the ongoing trade war—which have reached 34%—have ...

Core Insights - A significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China is expected to affect various sectors beyond agriculture, including trucking, rail shipments, and port operations [1][2] - China's reduced soybean purchases are primarily due to ongoing trade tensions and high tariffs on U.S. soybeans, leading to a shift towards South American suppliers [2][3] Export Impact - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at approximately $12.8 billion, accounting for about 25% of total U.S. exports [3] - For the 2025–2026 crop year, China has not placed any new soybean orders, which poses a significant challenge as the peak harvest season approaches [3] Regional Effects - The impact of reduced exports will be particularly pronounced in major soybean-producing states such as Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana, which collectively produce around half of the U.S. soybean crop [4] - Other key soybean-producing states include Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas, with most soybeans transported by rail to the Pacific Northwest for export [4][5] Supply Chain Consequences - The loss of China as a customer could have widespread repercussions throughout the supply chain, affecting warehouse workers, rail yard crews, longshoremen, and local businesses reliant on agricultural exports [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a severe crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which has historically been the largest customer, leading to significant financial losses for farmers and potential broader economic implications for the agricultural sector [6][7][9]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Soybean futures prices are currently around $10.10 per bushel, significantly below the estimated production costs of approximately $11.03 per bushel, resulting in substantial losses for farmers [1][2]. - Soybean prices have fallen 40% from three years ago, while production costs and interest rates have increased, putting farmers at risk of losses in the upcoming year if commodity prices do not improve [2][7]. Group 2: Importance of China in Soybean Trade - China typically accounts for over 25% of total U.S. soybean purchases, with about one-third of annual sales usually booked by this time in the season, translating to 8%-9% of the entire U.S. crop that would typically be sold to China currently sitting at zero [3][4]. - The absence of Chinese orders represents a significant departure from normal trading patterns, raising alarms about the stability of the agricultural sector and its broader implications for the U.S. economy [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion to the U.S. economy annually, representing 18.7% of total national economic output, with soybean exports alone generating over 231,000 jobs across various sectors [9][10]. - Disruptions in soybean trade have a ripple effect on manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities, emphasizing the interconnectedness of the agricultural sector with the overall economy [10]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Future Outlook - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have fundamentally altered global soybean trade patterns, with U.S. soybeans facing a 20% retaliatory tariff disadvantage compared to South American competitors [11]. - China has increased its soybean purchases from Brazil, sourcing 71% of its total soybean imports from Brazil in 2024, which poses a significant challenge for U.S. soybean farmers [12][13]. Group 5: Urgency for Resolution - The agricultural sector is experiencing an economic crisis, with forecasts indicating that the 2025 U.S. soybean crop could reach nearly 4.3 billion bushels, but without Chinese demand, this surplus threatens to further depress prices [14][16]. - Immediate action is needed to resolve trade issues, as farmers are facing a time-sensitive crisis with the harvest approaching and potential for further financial distress if market conditions do not improve [13][17].