文 | 文娱商业观察 德黑兰 播出已过大半，但各种buff层层叠加的《枭起青壤》，似乎还未撑起"尾鱼宇宙"效应。 在开播81分钟即破25000热度值刷新腾讯视频站内现代剧热度纪录后，《枭起青壤》逐渐陷入"高开横盘"的尴尬境地，直至发稿前，站内热度仍停滞在 27000区间难以突破。与此呼应，其虽已获得云合S+评级，但目前的市占率走势也基本是在横盘运动，最高仅13.8%，并且在云合剧集霸屏榜上的排位已 连续多日被《大生意人》反超。 两年后，腾讯视频"尾鱼宇宙"首发作《西出玉门》正式登场。可遗憾的是，尽管该剧的站内热度创下腾讯视频2023探险剧最高纪录（29271），并在完全 没有云包场的情况下跻身平台年度畅销榜TOP10，但由于舆论场里的观众反馈"毁誉参半"，距离"现象级"始终差了一口气。 《枭起青壤》与预期的"压轴剧王"还有距离，而近日腾讯电视剧运营人员回怼观众"外行指导内行"的言论，又挫伤了剧集核心粉丝的热情，对其路人盘也 产生了一定的消耗。 这显然不是腾讯视频所希望看到的。 在今年6月举办的2025腾讯视频影视年度发布上，腾讯视频曾重点披露了自己的IP宇宙系统化打造计划，《枭起青壤》所属的"尾鱼宇宙"正在其 ...

《枭起青壤》在超点完结日的热度跌回了仅次于开播日的新低，播放量也被后来居上的《大生意人》反超并且日渐拉开距离。 以迪丽热巴的流量级别、加上尾鱼"超大IP"的招牌来看，这样的数据表现实在不达大部分人的预期。 与此同时，尾鱼小说的书粉也没闲着，飞速翻出《枭起青壤》导演田里在八年前拍《河神》时的一段采访，文字中"尊重原著是在害人"如同一颗延时炸 弹，刚好在剧版遭遇质疑的当口"砰"地炸开。书粉怒火高涨，网友判断混乱，评论区从"你没懂原著"吵到"你就是不尊重原著"，再吵到"你拍的根本不是 原著"。 《枭起青壤》导演田里八年前的采访 如果只看这一轮骂战，你甚至会以为尾鱼小说是那种"读者自己都看不懂"的小众怪谈，可事实恰恰相反，尾鱼在网络文学世界可以说是"铁盘"级别的存 在，书粉忠诚度极高，长尾效应也足够稳，甚至到了她写什么、读者就追什么的程度。读者执迷于她笔下的东方志怪世界观和诡谲氛围，恨不得有人能把 她营造的"民间神秘感"和"精怪味道"完整拍出来。 可是，一旦进入影视化，情况立刻像被诅咒似的，《怨气撞铃》剧版被书粉自嘲"看了怨气大到想要撞铃"，《西出玉门》在黄沙中拍得索然无味，《七根 心简》被吐槽棚内虚拟拍摄看着廉价， ...

Core Insights - The recent drama market has returned to a state of "silence," while short video platforms are thriving with engaging content from various series [1] - The popularity of CP (couple) marketing in dramas is driving significant engagement on social media, particularly with series like "Big Businessman" and "Rising from the Ashes" [2][4] Group 1: Short Video Engagement - Short video clips from dramas often achieve high engagement, with some clips receiving over a million likes, indicating strong viewer interest [4][9] - The marketing strategies employed in urban fantasy dramas like "Rising from the Ashes" effectively capture adult audiences through relatable emotional content [4][7] - The contrast between characters in dramas, such as the dynamic between a general and a healer in "Rising from the Ashes," creates a compelling narrative that resonates with viewers [4][12] Group 2: Audience Dynamics - There is a distinction between audiences engaging with short video clips and those watching full episodes, with the former often seeking quick emotional highs rather than narrative depth [13][17] - The rapid dissemination of short clips can sometimes detract from the overall narrative of the series, leading to viewer disappointment when the full episodes do not meet expectations [15][17] - Despite the viral success of short clips, many dramas struggle to translate that engagement into sustained viewership on long video platforms, indicating a potential disconnect in audience preferences [13][15]

Core Insights - The summer film market of 2025 has not yet been ignited by a major blockbuster, with total box office revenue just surpassing 3 billion [1] - The drama market has also shown a lack of heat, with daily effective playback valuation hovering around 200 million since July, compared to over 250 million at the same time last year [1] - This summer's drama season is characterized by a shift towards realism, with a focus on judicial and criminal investigation themes, marking a transition from entertainment narratives to professional and social issue resonances [1][3] Group 1: Drama Market Trends - The absence of a leading drama has led to a diverse array of shows, with platforms like iQIYI, Youku, and Tencent Video launching multiple new series [1][5] - The four major dramas, including "In the Name of the Law" and "Justifiable Defense," focus on professional themes and real cases, replacing traditional generalized narratives [3][5] - These dramas have sparked significant audience engagement, with viewers resonating with the complex realities of justice and legal ethics presented in the narratives [7][9] Group 2: Innovations in Genre - There is a notable trend of genre fusion in costume dramas, with innovative attempts to break traditional frameworks, such as "Book Scroll Dream" and "Morning Snow Record" [2][11] - "Morning Snow Record" combines forensic elements with Chinese horror aesthetics, creating a unique viewing experience [15] - The success of "Jinxiu Fanghua" demonstrates a shift in focus from mere viewership to content-commercial synergy, indicating a broader strategy among platforms [15] Group 3: Future Expectations - Upcoming dramas like "The Legend of Mortal Cultivation" are anticipated to have significant potential, with high pre-release interest [16][18] - The integration of high-quality special effects in modern fantasy dramas is expected to attract a large audience base, particularly among fans of the original novels [23] - The hope is for this summer's drama season to feature a variety of successful shows across different genres, rather than being dominated by a few major hits [23]

Industry Overview - The current state of the drama market is challenging, with only a few shows like "In the Name of the Law" performing reasonably well, while others from major production companies have not made a significant impact [1][9] - The first phase of the summer season has concluded with disappointing results for major players, as many anticipated dramas failed to resonate with audiences [9] Key Productions and Performances - Tencent Video and iQIYI launched "Lychee of Chang'an" and "Lingjiang Xian" respectively, but both shows faced content controversies that hindered their success despite strong production teams [1][3] - Notable dramas such as "The Age of Forging" and "Huan Yu" also struggled, failing to meet audience expectations due to weak storytelling and character development [3][6] - The summer drama landscape is expected to become more competitive as new productions are set to debut, including "Justifiable Defense," which focuses on self-defense cases and features a strong cast [10][12] Upcoming Projects - Several new dramas are scheduled for release, including "Justifiable Defense" on July 9, which is anticipated to be a standout due to its unique theme and high-profile cast [10][12] - New productions from established companies like New Classics Media and Zhengwu Media are also on the horizon, with a variety of genres being explored [14][18] - The upcoming dramas from Noon Sunshine and Lingmeng are expected to contribute to the summer lineup, with "Cherry Amber" and "Midnight Return" respectively [14][16] Market Trends - Compared to the same period last year, the overall quality of summer dramas has declined, with no standout series capturing a wide audience [20] - The industry is looking for high-quality productions to emerge in the coming months to reverse the current downward trend [20]