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恺英网络(002517):2024年报和2025年一季报点评:Q4符合、Q1超预期,产品储备丰富,关注AI应用上线进度
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-13 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 results met expectations, while Q1 2025 results significantly exceeded expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14% [1]. - The company has a rich product pipeline for 2025, with several key IPs showing promising early performance, such as "Dragon Valley World" and "Digimon: Source Code" [8]. - The integration of AI applications is expected to enhance operational efficiency and provide valuation catalysts, with ongoing developments in AI companion technology and game engines [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 5.118 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 19.2%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 6.046 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% growth [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.628 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.4%, and is expected to increase to 2.015 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 23.7% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.76 yuan in 2024 to 0.94 yuan in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 35.956 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 31.823 billion yuan [4]. - The target price range for the company's stock is set between 18.86 and 23.58 yuan, based on a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-25 times for 2025 [8].
恺英网络(002517):2025年关注新产品及出海业务
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-27 09:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a target price of 19.6 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.118 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.628 billion yuan for 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16% and 11.41% respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.353 billion yuan and net profit was 518 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 3.46% and 21.57% [1]. - The mobile gaming segment, which accounts for 80% of total revenue, grew by 13.38% year-on-year, although its gross margin decreased by 2.75 percentage points. The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of 222%, albeit with a low revenue contribution of about 7%, and its gross margin improved by 8.53 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has a clear positioning in the gaming industry, focusing on IP games, and has successfully launched new IPs while maintaining classic titles. The overseas expansion strategy is expected to continue driving growth in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 22.8%, 15%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 29.4%, 15%, and 10% respectively. The expected EPS for these years are 0.98 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.23 yuan [3][8]. - The financial metrics indicate a stable performance with a net profit margin of 34.0% in 2023, projected to be 33.5% in 2025, and a return on equity (ROE) of 27.9% in 2023, expected to decline to 22.6% by 2025 [8][9].