资料来源：常闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 300418.SZ | 昆仑万维 | 买入-A | | 601595.SH | 上海电影 | 买入-A | | 603258.SH | 电魂网络 | 增持-A | 相关报告： 潘宁河 执业登记编码：S0760523110001 邮箱：panninghe@sxzq.com 林挺 执业登记编码：S0760524100003 邮箱：linting@sxzq.com 传媒 行业年度策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) AI 应用+IP 生态双轮驱动，行业基本面有望持续向好 2026 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 传媒业绩增速向上，AI、游戏驱动指数上涨。2025 年全年，传媒指数 累计上涨 27.17%，位于申万 31 个一级子行业的第 9 名。传媒子板块中，游 戏、电视广播涨幅分别为 60.50%、20.80%，涨幅较为领先。2025 年 Q1-Q3， 传媒行业实现营收 3872.78 亿元，同比+5.75%；实现归母净利润 321.09 亿元， 同比+37.88%。子板块中，影视、游戏行业板块利润表现 ...

" 从弃之可惜的「拖油瓶」，到炙手可热的「股价担当」，真的只 有一封解散信的距离。 " 作者丨胡家铭 编辑丨董子博 "还差几个小时，《心动小镇》的解散内部信，就会发到各个项目组人员手上"，一想到当时的情景，前心 动员工曼波还是会至今记得那种窒息感。 那是2023年中，心动网络的至暗时刻。股价从云端的113港元跌落至7.4港元/股，市值蒸发逾90%。 但在最后关头，一群由心动元老组成的"白骑士团"拦住了黄一孟。在那场漫长且激烈的博弈后，解散信被 撤回了。 生存的筹码是昂贵的。 黄一孟虽然收回了屠刀，却也开出了近乎苛刻的留存条件：《心动小镇》的项目组 可以保留，但人数从近100锐减到50人以下，且宣发资源近乎清零。一切只为研发，一切只为上线。如 此"铁血"不为其他，只为项目和公司的生存。 直到2026年，《心动小镇》终于在海外数十个国家登顶，新增用户超过1000万，公司股价也离前高不算 太远。《心动小镇》，算是彻底找回了场子。 项目海外多国登顶之后，外界看到的或许是"长期主义的胜利"。那些曾经力劝黄一孟留下项目的"白骑 士"们，或许也会心一笑，又回想起力劝黄一孟"刀下留人"的那个下午。 01 面对接连失利的新游和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dianhun Network, is expected to report a net profit loss of between 160 million to 230 million yuan for the year 2025, marking its first annual loss since its listing in October 2016 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have been declining since 2020, with revenues of 1.024 billion yuan and a net profit of 395 million yuan in 2020, dropping to 551 million yuan and 30.58 million yuan respectively by 2024 [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 293 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.08%, and a net loss of 30.515 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 140.83% [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Decline - The primary reason for the expected loss is the significant decline in game recharge flow from the wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiamen Youdong Network Technology Co., Ltd., which has adversely affected the company's profits and led to a notable impairment of goodwill [4]. - The company has also experienced a substantial decrease in revenue from existing games, further impacting its financial performance [4]. Group 3: Product and Market Context - Dianhun Network is known for its flagship product, the RPG-based online game "Dream of the Three Kingdoms," which has been well-received since its launch in 2009 and has contributed significantly to the company's past success [4]. - Despite attempts to launch new titles such as "Barbarian Battle 2," "Meet the Dragon 2," and "Cultivation Era" to revitalize its product lineup, these new releases have not met market expectations, continuing the trend of declining performance [5].

Industry Trends - The September mobile game overseas revenue ranking was released, with Point Cloud Interactive's "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" taking the top two spots [2] - Tencent and Ubisoft jointly established a new studio, Vantage Studios, which will be responsible for the development and operation of core IPs such as "Assassin's Creed" [3] - Century Games, a subsidiary of Century Huatong, rose from 7th to 1st place in the global Top 50 mobile game companies ranking [4] Company Developments - The actual controller and chairman of Dianhun Network, Hu Jianping, completed a reduction of 4.8692 million shares, cashing out 101 million yuan, with a total reduction exceeding 200 million yuan in six months [5][6] - Tencent subsidiary Funcom announced a round of layoffs and restructuring as it transitions from game development to long-term operations [7] - NetEase's MMO studio, Fantastic Pixel Castle, led by veteran producer Greg Street, is facing significant operational crises and potential layoffs [10] Compliance and Regulatory Issues - Discord confirmed that approximately 70,000 users' identity information and photos may have been leaked due to a hacker attack on a third-party supplier [11] Mergers and Acquisitions - EA announced it will be acquired in an all-cash transaction by a consortium led by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, with a total price of approximately 55 billion USD [12] - Microsoft reaffirmed its commitment to the development of the next-generation Xbox console amid rumors of cancellation [13] Esports Highlights - LCK team BFX won the Asian Invitational Championship by defeating DK with a score of 3:2 [14] - The 2026 Esports World Cup announced its main event projects, including popular titles like League of Legends and DOTA2 [15]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that multiple shareholders and executives of Dianhun Network plan to reduce their holdings due to personal financial needs, amidst the company's declining performance [1][2] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit over the years, with revenue decreasing from 10.24 billion in 2020 to 5.51 billion in 2024, and net profit dropping from 3.95 billion to 305.8 million in the same period [2][3] - The decline in performance is attributed to the decreasing revenue and user engagement of its core product, the online game "Dream of Three Kingdoms," which has seen a drop in both its revenue and active user base [3][6] Group 2 - The company has faced scrutiny from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its reliance on "Dream of Three Kingdoms" for revenue, which has raised concerns about its sustainability [4] - The latest financial report indicates that in the first half of 2025, the company's revenue fell by 28.69% to 1.94 billion, resulting in a net loss of 9.34 million, a significant decline from a profit of 59.31 million in the same period last year [6][7] - Despite attempts to diversify its product offerings, such as launching mobile versions and new games, the company has not successfully established a new revenue-generating product, with "Dream of Three Kingdoms" still accounting for 65.27% of total revenue [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dianhun Network, is expected to report significant losses in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit loss of between 11 million to 7.5 million yuan, indicating a decline compared to the previous year [1][11]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has decreased from 1.024 billion yuan in 2021 to 550 million yuan in 2024, representing a decline of 46.3% [11]. - Net profit has plummeted from 454 million yuan to 54 million yuan during the same period, a staggering drop of 88.11% [11]. - For 2024, the total revenue was 359.26 million yuan, down 18.46% from 2023 [5]. Game Performance - The core game, "Dream Three Kingdoms," has been in operation for over 15 years and is experiencing a decline in revenue and active users [1][3]. - In 2024, the revenue from "Dream Three Kingdoms" was 359 million yuan, accounting for 65.27% of total revenue, but this was an 18.46% decrease year-on-year [4][5]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for 2024 was 566,400, a decrease of 3.9% from 2023 [5]. Management and Ownership Changes - The company has seen a significant reduction in its founding team, with only two founders remaining, Hu Jianping and Chen Fang [2][19]. - Founders have collectively cashed out 850 million yuan since the company's IPO, raising concerns about management stability [2][19]. Investment and Asset Management - The company has faced substantial investment losses, with long-term equity investments and goodwill impairments totaling 68.28 million yuan, which exceeded the net profit for the period [12][18]. - Six out of ten major invested companies are facing operational difficulties, leading to full impairment of their book values [12][13]. New Game Releases - The company has several new game titles planned for release, including "Wild Barbarian Battle 2" and "Xianxia Era," but the performance of these new titles has been underwhelming [6][7]. - "Wild Barbarian Battle 2" initially performed well but quickly fell in rankings and revenue, indicating challenges in sustaining player interest [9]. Market Context - The gaming industry is experiencing a policy-driven recovery, which has led to a temporary increase in stock prices, but the company's internal challenges remain significant [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hangzhou Dihun Network Technology Co., Ltd., reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, primarily driven by the performance of its flagship game "Dream Three Kingdoms" which has been operational for over 15 years [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.71% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.58 million yuan and 5.30 million yuan, reflecting declines of 46.2% and 91.1% respectively [1][3]. Game Performance Metrics - Revenue from "Dream Three Kingdoms" accounted for 65.27% of total revenue - The game experienced a decline in key performance indicators over the past three years: - Revenue in 2024 was 359.26 million yuan, down 18.46% from 2023 - Total transaction amount decreased by 38.47% to 308.06 million yuan in 2024 - Monthly active users fell to 566,400, a decrease of 3.90% [2][3][8]. Revenue Recognition and Accounting Practices - The company recognizes revenue based on the consumption of virtual items and the lifecycle of paying players, which aligns with the accounting standards [4][5]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) in 2024 was 45.32 yuan, down 35.98% from the previous year [2][3]. Business Model and Cost Structure - The company operates under four business models: self-operated, authorized, joint operation, and agency operation - Despite a decline in revenue, operating costs increased by 12.35% due to rising costs associated with mobile game licensing and operational expenses [5][8]. Cost Composition - The main components of operating costs in 2024 included: - Employee compensation: 78.91 million yuan, up 12.31% - Revenue sharing and licensing fees: 32.15 million yuan, up 48.46% - Server rental fees: 16.81 million yuan, down 10.63% [8][9]. Future Game Development and Risks - The company has several new game products in the pipeline, with various stages of licensing and release planned for 2025 - However, there are risks associated with the timely launch and performance of these new titles, influenced by market conditions and development timelines [4][5][6].