对风险的掌控是面对不确定事件时最坚实的底气。正如巴菲特对风险本质的洞察："风险来自于你不知道自己在 做什么。"所以，面对风险，巴菲特会选择"将盈利概率乘上可能盈利的数量，减去亏损的概率乘上可能亏损的 数量"，让"不知道"变得可计算、可优化，再去做决策。 所幸，我们有一个威力庞大的数学工具——贝叶斯定理。这个诞生于18世纪的概率学工具，正是帮助我们"知 道"自己在做什么的钥匙。通过了解这个公式背后的逻辑，我们将学会不断修正对事件概率的判断，从而把不确 定性转化为可管理的风险。 本文摘编自《贝叶斯定理》。荐读之。 《贝叶斯定理》 作 者 ： 汤 姆 · 奇 弗 斯 译者： 韩潇潇 出版时间：2 0 2 5年5月 出版社：中信出版集团 首先，让我们来认识一下大名鼎鼎的贝叶斯定理： $$P(A\,|\,B\,)={\frac{P(B\,|\,A\,)\!\cdot\!P(A)}{P(B)}}$$ 先验概率 P（A）：在观测到新证据B之前，事件A的初始概率。 似然度 P（B∣A）：在事件A发生的条件下，观察到证据B的概率。 边际概率 P（B）：证据B在所有可能情况下的总概率（通常通过全概率公式计算）。 后验概率P（A∣ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and how it contributes to personal growth and decision-making, particularly through the lens of Bayesian thinking [2][3][7]. Group 1: Importance of Reading - The article highlights that reading is a crucial path for growth, as echoed by notable figures like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, who advocate for extensive reading as a means to gain wisdom [2][12]. - The initiative encourages readers to engage in discussions about books, fostering a community of learning and interaction [4][5][6]. Group 2: Bayesian Thinking - The article introduces Bayesian thinking as a powerful decision-making framework that helps individuals navigate uncertainty by updating beliefs based on new evidence [12][16][36]. - It explains the essence of Bayesian decision-making, which involves quantifying prior beliefs and continuously adjusting them with new data to optimize decisions [18][21][38]. Group 3: Three Realms of Bayesian Thinking - The first realm focuses on how to scientifically quantify prior beliefs, transforming intuition into measurable probabilities [18][20]. - The second realm emphasizes the importance of dynamic adjustment, where decision-makers should continuously update their strategies based on new information [21][22]. - The third realm discusses the concept of probabilistic thinking, where experts avoid absolute conclusions and instead consider multiple scenarios and their associated probabilities [23][26][29]. Group 4: Practical Applications - The article provides examples of how Bayesian thinking can be applied in various contexts, such as Netflix's recommendation algorithm and decision-making in the electric vehicle market [22][24]. - It also illustrates how top hedge funds utilize probabilistic scenarios to inform their strategies, demonstrating the practical utility of Bayesian methods in finance [29][36]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes by asserting that Bayesian thinking is an essential tool for making informed decisions in an uncertain world, encouraging readers to adopt this mindset for better outcomes [34][37].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of Bayesian theorem as a framework for updating knowledge and making decisions under uncertainty, complementing Stoic philosophy [2][5][10] Application of Bayesian Thinking - In business, Bayesian theorem can be utilized as a "possibility dashboard" to enhance customer engagement and increase sales conversion rates through real-time probability assessments [3] - In project management, it serves as an intelligent warning system, allowing for proactive risk management by adjusting probabilities based on new evidence [4] - In medical decision-making, it provides a rational filter to assess true probabilities of conditions, countering misleading surface data [4] Complementary Thinking Systems - Bayesian theorem acts as a dynamic guide for updating cognition and quantifying uncertainty, while Stoic philosophy offers psychological resilience by distinguishing between what can and cannot be changed [5][6] - The combination of both approaches is particularly effective in various life scenarios, such as healthcare, investment, and skill acquisition [6] Practical Guidelines - Before taking action, evaluate possibilities using Bayesian theorem [8] - During execution, maintain a Stoic mindset to accept outcomes [9] - After actions, establish a feedback loop for cognitive improvement [10] Conclusion - The integration of Bayesian reasoning and Stoic philosophy is presented as an ultimate survival strategy in an uncertain world, promoting both dynamic decision-making and internal stability [10][11]