以下文章来源于跑步有毒 ，作者跑步有毒 跑步有毒 . 一个非主流妈妈，一个非主流媒体人，一个非主流跑者，一个全情游荡的人 本文来自微信公众号： 跑步有毒 ，作者：跑步有毒，题图来自：视觉中国 如今我们习以为常的"退休"概念，实际上并非伴随着职业的出现而自然诞生，它的诞生与社会保障制 度紧密相连。 古代的人几乎终生劳作，养老责任多由家庭或宗族承担。直到工业革命带来生产力的跃升和现代国家 财政能力的建立，公共资金供养老年生活才成为可能，"退休"这一概念才由此诞生。 几天后，美国的社会保障计划将迎来它的90周年。1935年8月14日，富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福总统签 署了《社会保障法》，为人们开启了脱离终生劳作、迈向独立生活的新纪元。 彼时的美国，缺乏有效的退休收入规划工具。大规模的养老金体系和退休储蓄计划尚未出现。人们停 止工作后，许多人只能依靠家人扶养，或陷入贫困。一些无依无靠的老人最终被送入由政府运营的救 济院——那里提供住所和食物，但前提是老人必须打工回报社会。社会保障倡导者南希·奥尔特曼 说："几乎每个州都有救济院，主要收容老年人。"她专注研究美国社保历史，著有多部相关著作。 在大萧条最严峻的岁月里，大约一 ...

如今我们习以为常的"退休"概念，实际上并非伴随着职业的出现而自然诞生，它的诞生与社会保障制度 紧密相连。 古代的人几乎终生劳作，养老责任多由家庭或宗族承担。直到工业革命带来生产力的跃升和现代国家财 政能力的建立，公共资金供养老年生活才成为可能，"退休"这一概念才由此诞生。 几天后，美国的社会保障计划将迎来它的90周年。1935年8月14日，富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福总统签署了 《社会保障法》，为人们开启了脱离终生劳作、迈向独立生活的新纪元。 彼时的美国，缺乏有效的退休收入规划工具。大规模的养老金体系和退休储蓄计划尚未出现。人们停止 工作后，许多人只能依靠家人扶养，或陷入贫困。一些无依无靠的老人最终被送入由政府运营的救济院 ——那里提供住所和食物，但前提是老人必须打工回报社会。社会保障倡导者南希·奥尔特曼说："几乎 每个州都有救济院，主要收容老年人。"她专注研究美国社保历史，著有多部相关著作。 在大萧条最严峻的岁月里，大约一半的美国老年人生活在贫困线以下。 此后数十年，社会保障成为改善老年经济状况的关键力量。根据预算与政策优先中心的数据，2023年， 社会保障使1630万65岁及以上的成年人免于贫困。如果没有这项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and how it contributes to personal growth and decision-making, particularly through the lens of Bayesian thinking [2][3][7]. Group 1: Importance of Reading - The article highlights that reading is a crucial path for growth, as echoed by notable figures like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, who advocate for extensive reading as a means to gain wisdom [2][12]. - The initiative encourages readers to engage in discussions about books, fostering a community of learning and interaction [4][5][6]. Group 2: Bayesian Thinking - The article introduces Bayesian thinking as a powerful decision-making framework that helps individuals navigate uncertainty by updating beliefs based on new evidence [12][16][36]. - It explains the essence of Bayesian decision-making, which involves quantifying prior beliefs and continuously adjusting them with new data to optimize decisions [18][21][38]. Group 3: Three Realms of Bayesian Thinking - The first realm focuses on how to scientifically quantify prior beliefs, transforming intuition into measurable probabilities [18][20]. - The second realm emphasizes the importance of dynamic adjustment, where decision-makers should continuously update their strategies based on new information [21][22]. - The third realm discusses the concept of probabilistic thinking, where experts avoid absolute conclusions and instead consider multiple scenarios and their associated probabilities [23][26][29]. Group 4: Practical Applications - The article provides examples of how Bayesian thinking can be applied in various contexts, such as Netflix's recommendation algorithm and decision-making in the electric vehicle market [22][24]. - It also illustrates how top hedge funds utilize probabilistic scenarios to inform their strategies, demonstrating the practical utility of Bayesian methods in finance [29][36]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes by asserting that Bayesian thinking is an essential tool for making informed decisions in an uncertain world, encouraging readers to adopt this mindset for better outcomes [34][37].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a corrective feedback loop in decision-making, particularly in uncertain environments, as exemplified by Elon Musk's approach to business and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Elon Musk's Approach - Musk operates with a strong belief in his mission, distinguishing between faith in achieving goals and belief in the probability of success [3]. - He applies first principles thinking and probability optimization, notably in SpaceX, focusing on user satisfaction and product excellence [4]. - Musk's success stems from understanding how to iterate and improve products in an uncertain world while recognizing the limits of probability and physical laws [5]. Group 2: Bayesian Thinking - Bayesian theory serves as a powerful mathematical tool for understanding and managing uncertainty, allowing for cognitive calibration through updated beliefs based on new evidence [6][7]. - The article outlines the components of Bayesian reasoning, including prior probability, likelihood, marginal probability, and posterior probability, which help in updating beliefs [8][9][10][12]. Group 3: Decision-Making Framework - The article presents a three-tiered framework for applying Bayesian thinking in decision-making: establishing prior beliefs, dynamically adjusting based on new data, and adopting probabilistic thinking [20][28][35]. - The first tier involves quantifying prior beliefs to avoid rigid decision-making based on intuition [21][24]. - The second tier emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in decision models as market conditions change, illustrated by examples from Netflix and the electric vehicle market [29][31][32]. - The third tier highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, where decision-makers consider multiple scenarios and their associated probabilities rather than making absolute claims [36][38][41]. Group 4: Implications of Bayesian Thinking - The article argues that Bayesian thinking is essential for navigating uncertainty in today's complex environment, providing a framework for continuous evolution in decision-making [60][67]. - It suggests that the ability to manage uncertainty through Bayesian principles will be crucial for future success in various fields [68].

大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故 事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博 格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你103本私藏经典好书 》 人人都爱预测 为什么人人都爱预测？ 因为我们都想抓住未来的答案。 最近看了一本挺有意思的新书，《科学预测》。 在算命的时候，最经典的就是"彩虹话术"。 意思是，用两组或者两组以上，彼此对立的语句，来描述事情。 例如： "你表面上坚强独立，但内心渴望被理解。" "看似果断的行动背后，其实经历过痛苦的纠结。" 这种对立话术，几乎能让所有人找到共鸣点。 投资领域也经常充斥这种话术。 例如，1923年的《华尔街日报》，有一篇文章叫《市场建议》。 其中有一段，非常经典的市场涨跌描述。 "正如预期的那样，道琼斯指数，接近140点的时候会有阻力， 但经过一天的下跌后，成交量减少，目前市 ...