前言 读懂未来 把握红利 上周我和拉斯·特维德做了一场一对一的深度访谈。 访谈的全程将会以直播的形式为大家放出，欢迎预约直播 老朋友应该知道，拉斯是《逃不开的经济周期》《超智能与未来》的作者，也是写了 17 本书、创立过 13 家科技公司、投资做得风生水起的名人，被誉为 欧洲的瑞·达里奥。 2016年，他创立的风险投资基金"北欧之眼"(Nordic Eye)，成为北欧有史以来最赚钱的风险基金之一。 老实讲，这次谈话的收获远远超出我的预期。书里的洞察、模型、理解，他在人身上是"活的"。很多人写未来、讲科技、谈周期，都停在"讲概念"或"想 象"，但他是建立在庞大数据基础设施之上的推断。 为什么我说他看到的未来更可信？因为他不是"瞎想未来"，而是"看见未来"。 这就是震撼我的第一点。 （这是拉斯的书， 如果你还没有看过，我真心推荐你看一看 （ 非常智慧有趣的拉斯 职业生涯关键节点 早期职业经历与入行背景 特维德的职业生涯始于金融投资领域，拥有在投资组合管理和投资银行领域长达11年的从业经历。这段早期的金融从业经历为他奠定了坚实的宏观经济与 市场分析基础，使其对经济周期的运行规律有了深入的理解。随后，在20世纪90年 ...

Group 1 - The core investment themes for the next five years include technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [9][30][40] - The rapid growth of AI technology is expected to drive significant profits in the future, with effective compute power increasing by 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023 [13][19] - The emergence of generative AI is anticipated to create strong business moats for companies that effectively utilize it, contrasting with the commoditization of large language models [20][19] Group 2 - The metals and mining sector is projected to face a potential shortage, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum, with uranium prices expected to rise by 225% if they return to historical peaks [31][30] - Passion investments, such as prime real estate and limited edition assets, are expected to see increased demand as wealth grows, despite their supply remaining fixed [33] - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are highlighted for their potential growth, with China showing significant innovation capabilities and a favorable investment environment [36][38] Group 3 - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued, with an average P/E ratio of 10-11, and is expected to benefit from AI advancements that lower R&D costs and accelerate product development [40][42] - The future of work is projected to be heavily influenced by AI, with estimates suggesting that 80% of jobs could be performed by intelligent robots by 2050 [29][22] - The development of physical AI, including robotics and autonomous vehicles, is expected to create a significant market by 2027-2028, with China positioned to play a crucial role [24][28]

Group 1 - The core investment themes for the next five years include technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [9][30][40] - The technology sector is expected to continue its growth, but current valuations are high [9] - The metals and mining sector may experience explosive growth due to potential metal shortages, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum [30] - Passion investments, which are assets that do not involve technological iteration and have limited supply, are likely to see significant price increases during periods of innovation [33] - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are projected to prosper, with Chinese innovation capabilities rapidly advancing [36][38] Group 2 - Generative AI is anticipated to be a major source of profit in future society, with its effective compute power increasing exponentially [10][19] - The growth of AI has been exponential, with effective compute power increasing by 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023, and expected to maintain this growth rate until 2028 [13] - The application of generative AI in various industries, such as banking and pharmaceuticals, is expected to create strong business barriers [20] Group 3 - Approximately 80% of jobs are predicted to be completed by intelligent robots by 2050, with significant advancements in physical AI and reasoning AI [22][29] - The cost of producing robots is significantly lower than the cost of training a human worker, leading to a potential shift in labor dynamics [28] - The emergence of personal AI and innovative AI is expected to reshape various sectors, including education and software development [24][25] Group 4 - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued compared to the AI sector, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 10-11 times for international biotech ETFs [40] - AI is significantly reducing research and development costs in biotechnology, leading to a rapid increase in the discovery of new molecules [42] - The sector is expected to see a surge in new products, including cancer vaccines and personalized medical services [42] Group 5 - The Asian markets, particularly China, are showing significant potential for growth due to their innovation capabilities and favorable economic conditions [36][38] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is below historical averages, indicating potential for significant upward movement [38] - The influx of capital from bank deposits into the stock market is expected to drive a strong rebound in Chinese equities [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future investment opportunities and risks identified by Lars Tvede, focusing on five key themes for the next five years, including technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [6][9]. Group 1: Key Investment Themes - Technology is highlighted as a primary investment area, although current valuations are generally high [9]. - The metals and mining sector is expected to experience significant growth due to potential shortages, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum [30]. - Passion investments, which include unique assets like prime beachfront properties and limited-edition cars, are anticipated to see increased demand as wealth grows [33]. - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are projected to thrive, with China showing significant innovation capabilities and potential for economic growth [36][37]. - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued and is expected to benefit from advancements in AI, leading to a surge in new products and services [40][42]. Group 2: AI and Its Impact - The article emphasizes that a significant portion of future profits will derive from generative AI, which is expected to create strong business moats for companies that effectively implement it [19][20]. - The effective compute power for AI has increased dramatically, with estimates showing a growth of 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023, and this trend is expected to continue [13]. - The rise of reasoning AI and physical AI is anticipated to transform various industries, with predictions indicating that by 2050, 80% of physical labor could be performed by intelligent robots [22][29]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the current valuation of metals is not overly low, making significant price increases challenging, except for specific metals like uranium [30]. - The Asian markets, particularly those in ASEAN, are highlighted for their potential growth, with low forward P/E ratios and significant economic growth prospects [36][37]. - The Chinese stock market is currently at a historical low, presenting a potential opportunity for significant gains as capital flows into the market [38]. Group 4: Future of Energy - The article discusses the potential for nuclear energy, particularly small modular reactors, to play a crucial role in the future energy landscape, with predictions of significant advancements in nuclear fusion technology [57][59]. - The shift towards nuclear energy is seen as a necessary step for companies to meet energy demands sustainably while reducing carbon emissions [58].