贸易商上头的原因其实无外乎因为缺货，一铵、二铵企业自身压力较大，受限价限制着，加之上游原料 涨价，下游则不接受高价，多面夹击使得一铵、二铵企业要么不愿报价，要么就维持限价，企业多不接 单，前期待发尚未全部发完，原料硫磺等库存已不多，后续不得不采购高价原料，因此企业会想办法慢 点消耗原料库存，部分企业仍在检修中，一定程度上缓解供应压力。 需求方面暂时集中在工业方面，业内喜好用64%二铵，但因缺货，55%粉铵和57%二铵等价格也在不断 上行，不过近期多集中在贸易商层面上，高价采购就要抓紧背靠背卖出去，趁着市场缺货，下游规模型 复合肥企业会分批次采购，但对于前期未采购的小厂，近期确实在抓狂，硬性需求下，厂家会适当采 购，量都不大，二铵企业放货暂时较少，工业需求急促，就不得不采购高价二铵，农业需求尚早，后期 还要考虑基层能否接受这么高的价格，接受的可能性应不大。 综上，供需及近日原料政策变化都已考虑，剩下的就是磷矿石的行情，冬季限采期，价位应不会有大幅 变化，液氨价格虽然不高，但对一铵、二铵成本影响不太大，后期一铵、二铵要面临的挑战还很多，接 下来还要面对农业方面是否接受涨价后的磷酸铵，政策、原料、供需多方压力之下， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industry trends, focusing on global supply and demand dynamics for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Insights on Potassium Fertilizer - **Global Supply and Demand**: - In 2024, global potassium fertilizer supply is expected to reach a historical high, primarily due to recovery in production from Canada, Russia, and former Soviet Union countries, although not fully back to 2021 levels [1]. - Global demand for potassium fertilizer is driven by price declines, government support, and increased soybean demand from South America [1][3]. - China's resource-type potassium fertilizer production is projected to grow slightly by 1.65% in 2024, with a significant increase of 15.6% in sulfate of potash (SOP) production [2]. - **Cost Trends**: - The global on-site cost for potassium fertilizer in 2024 is estimated at $128 per ton, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a slight increase to $131 per ton expected in 2025 [10]. - **Future Supply Projections**: - Global potassium fertilizer supply in 2025 is expected to remain stable or slightly lower than in 2024, with potential increases from Russia and Belarus [5][7]. - New potassium fertilizer capacity of 14.7 million tons is anticipated from 2025 to 2029, with approximately 40% of the investment coming from China [7]. - **Market Dynamics**: - High contract prices for 2025 are attributed to low inventory levels in overseas markets and operational impacts from major suppliers [11]. Key Insights on Phosphorus Fertilizer - **Demand Factors**: - The demand for phosphorus fertilizer is influenced by declining inventory levels and increased consumption in the renewable energy sector [3][12]. - Phosphate rock production is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with Hubei and Yunnan provinces contributing over 60% of the total production [13]. - **Supply and Capacity**: - New phosphorus rock capacity is projected to be close to 65 million tons from 2025 to 2029, but only about 30% of this is expected to be realized [14]. - Domestic self-sufficiency in phosphorus rock is around 98%, with imports becoming increasingly necessary due to production shortfalls [15]. - **Price Trends**: - Phosphate rock prices have surged since 2020, with high-grade resources nearing 1,000 RMB, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [19]. - Future prices are expected to stabilize between 800 to 1,000 RMB if new capacity does not meet expectations [21]. Additional Important Insights - **Environmental and Operational Challenges**: - Tailings pond backfilling is crucial for reducing subsidence risks, which can impact long-term potassium fertilizer production [6]. - The BHP Jansen Lake project has faced delays, pushing its production timeline from 2026 to mid-2027 due to budget overruns and extended timelines [9]. - **Market Outlook**: - The overall market for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers is expected to remain stable, with traditional demand patterns continuing, while renewable energy sector demand is anticipated to grow significantly [22]. - **Production Calculations**: - Phosphate rock production is calculated based on a standard ore content of 30%, with discrepancies noted between reported and actual production levels due to utilization rates [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industries, their current status, and future outlooks.