地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 27 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。沪锡涨超 8%，铂涨超 5%，硅 铁涨超 3%，钯、锰硅涨超 2%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超 3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、 PVC 跌超 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约涨 0.09%，上证 50 股指期货（IH） 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

Core Viewpoint - Baichuan Co., Ltd. (002455.SZ) announced an abnormal stock trading fluctuation, indicating that recent market supply and demand factors have led to an increase in the market prices of some of its main products, but the sustainability of these price fluctuations remains uncertain, making it difficult to predict the impact on the company's performance [1] Group 1 - The company reported a rise in market prices for some of its main products due to supply and demand factors [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the price fluctuations [1] - The company is unable to estimate the extent of the impact on its performance at this time [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's product prices are influenced by various factors, including market supply and demand dynamics and industry development trends [2] - The company will adopt appropriate pricing strategies based on actual market supply and demand conditions [2] - The company commits to disclosing relevant information in accordance with the requirements of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2]

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].

Report Core View - The economic ideas and market operation thinking in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" have important reference significance for today's futures investment transactions, and investors can improve investment success rate and return level by learning from them [5] Key Points Influence of National Policies on the Market - The national macro - policies in the futures market, like the state intervention in the salt and iron monopoly policy in the Western Han Dynasty, have a crucial impact on the market trend, such as reserve and import - export policies affecting commodity futures prices [2] Different Market Participants - In the futures market, hedgers are similar to producers or consumers in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" who want to ensure their own interests through a stable market, while speculators are like those who look for business opportunities in policy changes [3] Market Supply - and - Demand Relationship - Supply - and - demand relationship is a core factor determining price trends in futures trading, similar to the impact of salt and iron supply and demand on prices in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" [3] Investment Philosophy - In futures investment, investors should pursue both profit and market fairness and stability, and avoid excessive speculation. They should also maintain a rational and objective attitude and make comprehensive analyses [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The oil price is mainly in a downward trend with a loose supply - demand situation. Precious metals are affected by funds and geopolitical situations, and investors can consider participating in breakthroughs or waiting for re - entry opportunities. Various non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and financial products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and market emotions [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The current market is in a pattern of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. In 2026Q1, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. The US - Venezuela situation may lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production and exports if sanctions are relaxed. The oil price is in a downward trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical factors. Venezuelan supply fluctuations are a short - term issue, and the expected supply recovery may increase the surplus concern. Venezuelan heavy - product supply disruptions may support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: The northern spot price has stabilized, and the southern market shows signs of recovery. The cost may rise if the US maintains the blockade on Venezuela, but there is resistance if the raw - material risk is false [23] - **Urea**: The urea market is in a tight supply - demand situation in the short term. The production enterprises are reducing inventory. Although the daily output is expected to increase, the spring agricultural demand will limit the downward space [24] - **Methanol**: There are rumors of MTO device overhauls in East China, causing the methanol price to fall. Overseas device operation rates are low, and future imports are expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the operation of coastal olefin devices and port inventory [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US economic data and policy adjustments affected the market. Geopolitical situations and funds are driving price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims data [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, the copper price dropped from a high level. Domestic copper market focuses on fundamentals, and the previous option combination strategy can still be held [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals declined as a whole. The Shanghai aluminum price was boosted by funds but failed to reach a historical high. The short - term trend deviates from fundamentals, and aluminum producers can consider selling for hedging [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the Shanghai aluminum price trend. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost in some areas may increase. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity remains stable, and the market is in surplus. The cash cost is expected to decrease, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment cools down [7] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc price is approaching a two - year high but is under pressure. The high price has a negative impact on consumption, and there is a risk of a phased correction [8] - **Lead**: The tax cost of recycled lead has increased, and there are still soft squeeze - out pressures. The price is facing upward pressure, but there are also concerns about inventory accumulation and price correction [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price adjusted overnight. The market is in a "buy - on - rising" mode. Stainless steel exports are accelerating inventory reduction, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the short term [10] - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin price decreased with reduced positions. The impact of Venezuelan tin exports is limited, and selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be considered [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price is oscillating at a high level. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream has some rigid - demand purchases. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is strong [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market funds are flowing out. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to high - level transactions [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price touched 9,000 yuan/ton and then fell. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The inventory has pressure, and the futures price may oscillate and correct [14] Steel and Related Products - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillates at night. The demand for thread is weak in the off - season, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is recovering. The steel mill profit is improving, and the iron - water output is stabilizing. The steel price may remain strong in the short term [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price oscillates. The global shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is weak, but there is rigid - replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to high - level fluctuations [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: - **Coke**: The price continued to rise last night. The production is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is rising. The downstream demand is still resilient, but there is pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise last night. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the production is slightly decreasing. The overall situation is similar to that of coke, with pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates upward. The manganese ore price is rising, and the inventory has a structural problem. The demand is seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price oscillates upward. Affected by policies, the cost is expected to decrease. The demand is still resilient, and the supply is decreasing significantly. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [20] Chemical Products - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: - **Pure Benzene**: The price rose slightly at night. The import is sufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26] - **Styrene**: The production and sales of enterprises are stable, but the raw - material cost is weak, which suppresses the price rebound [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The enterprises' sales are smooth, and the prices are rising. The downstream follows up well, but the factory's mentality is cautious [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: - **PVC**: Affected by the policy, the price is rising. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large. In 2026, the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the price center may rise [29] - **Caustic Soda**: The price oscillates strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand from alumina is still there, but the industry is in a loss. The rebound height may be suppressed [29] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell at night. The terminal demand is weak, and the polyester cash - flow is poor. The short - term external disturbances are increasing, and the PTA's main driver is the raw material [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic new - device production is approaching, and the overseas device shutdowns are increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure in the long term. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: The enterprise inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak. The price follows the raw material. Band - trading can be considered according to the production and demand rhythm [32] - **Bottle - Chip**: The demand turns weak, and the price follows the raw material. There is new production in the short term, and there are over - capacity problems in the long term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: - **Soybean and Bean Meal**: The market expects the US soybean production to remain stable, and the global soybean production may decrease. South American weather is good, and the bean - meal price follows the US soybean price. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The macro - environment affects the prices. The soybean oil performs better than the palm oil. The palm - oil inventory may continue to accumulate, and the overall market is expected to oscillate [37] - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The domestic soybean market is boosted by the macro - environment and policy. The auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. Attention should be paid to policies and the market [39] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The rapeseed and rapeseed - meal inventories of coastal oil mills are zero, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is decreasing. The market expects the China - Canada economic and trade relationship to improve, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [38] - **Corn**: The overall inventory of corn is low, and the number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises is small. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: The pig futures oscillate, and the spot price is slightly strong. The data on the number of sows is different. There is a risk of secondary fattening, but the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the price may have a secondary bottom in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The near - month egg futures are slightly strong, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. The egg - laying chicken inventory is expected to decrease in the first half of 2026. A long - position strategy for the first - half - year contracts is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price rose significantly yesterday, and the inventory is relatively low. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging, and long positions should be held with caution [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar production in India is fast, while in Thailand it is slow. The domestic Guangxi sugar production is slow, but there is an expected increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar may be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The cold - storage sales are increasing, but the quality is poor, and the high price may affect inventory reduction [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp price fell slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase is limited. The port inventory is rising, and the needle - broad price difference is narrowing. A low - buying strategy is recommended [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The futures index contracts showed different trends, and all contracts were at a discount. The global risk assets are not significantly affected, and the stock index is expected to remain strong in the short term [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal. Attention should be paid to the central bank's operations and the yield - curve trend [49]

Core Viewpoint - The price of cherries in China has dropped significantly, with reports indicating a decline of 20% to 30% compared to the end of 2024, attributed to early harvests and an oversupply in the market [1][4][11]. Price Trends - The rapid decline in cherry prices is evident, with wholesale prices dropping from 190 yuan per kilogram in October to 47.5 yuan by December, marking a significant decrease [4][8]. - Consumers have reported experiencing drastic price changes within days, with some cherry boxes seeing price drops of 70 to 80 yuan before delivery [4][10]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The increase in supply is linked to improved logistics and transportation networks, with a doubling of planned shipping routes for cherries in 2025, reducing shipping times significantly [8][9]. - The Chilean Cherry Exporters Association has revised its supply forecast, indicating a decrease in expected exports for the 2025-2026 season, which may stabilize prices [11][15]. Market Behavior - The cherry market has seen a shift in consumer behavior, with a decline in demand for high-end cherries, leading to a surplus of lower-grade cherries [10][16]. - Retailers are facing pressure from consumers who are increasingly price-sensitive, often influenced by live-streaming sales that promote lower prices [10][16]. Environmental and Economic Factors - The early maturity of cherries and the fluctuation in supply are attributed to unstable environmental conditions and previous overproduction, which have disrupted the economic stability of the cherry trade [11][14]. - The impact of extreme weather on cherry production has raised concerns among traders about future supply consistency [14][15].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation. Although steel exports are at a high level and macro - policies have a positive impact, the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the market [1]. - Iron ore: Volatility. The supply from Australia is rising while that from Brazil is falling, iron - water production is decreasing, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Coking coal: Weak volatility. The supply increase is limited, the actual market demand is insufficient, and the downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Coke: Weak volatility. The coke output is increasing, and the terminal consumption demand is average, with the impact of weather on transportation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Volatility. The cost is high, production is decreasing, demand is to be boosted, and inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatility. The cost is high, supply reduction is limited, and the market expectation is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (1.08% decline), and the position increased by 0.3 million hands. Spot prices declined slightly. In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. The cumulative export from January to November was 10771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [1]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (1.1% decline). Australian shipments rebounded, Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased, and inventories increased [1]. - **Coking coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (4.08% decline), and the position increased by 24153 hands. The supply increase was limited, and the actual market demand was insufficient [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1537 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (3.03% decline), and the position increased by 1550 hands. The coke output increased, and the terminal consumption demand was average [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract price of manganese silicon was 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The production cost was high, the weekly output decreased by 3.5% for 5 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises reached a new high [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5444 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. After the electricity price adjustment in November, the production reduction intention increased. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 6.0, and the 5 - 10 month spread was - 41.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 01 contract was 163.0, and that of the 05 contract was 157.0 [4]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3280.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The rebar's on - disk profit was 27.0, and the long - process profit was - 29.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 168.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][45]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director and Black Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - spot trading [55].