Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the tense situation over the weekend. The Middle - East geopolitical situation is the core variable affecting market trading, and the focus is on the subsequent evolution of macro - events and the inventory inflection point [13]. - Zinc: In the long - term, the increase in supply exerts pressure on the price, but it takes time to materialize. The price has stopped falling in the short - term, and the recurrence of macro - risk events requires caution regarding the phased impact of macro - sentiment [15]. - Tin: The tin price is expected to move in a range [16]. - Carbonate Lithium: The expectation of supply disruptions is strengthened, and the price will fluctuate in a wide range. However, the rapid short - term increase requires caution against technical corrections [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices of Various Metals** - Copper: The futures closing price of the main contract CU2605 on March 27, 2026, was 95,930 yuan, up 1,190 yuan (1.26%) from March 20. The spot average price in Shanghai Wumaom was 95,500 yuan on March 27, down 195 yuan (- 0.20%) from March 20 [9]. - Aluminum: The futures closing price of the main contract AL2605 on March 27, 2026, was 23,935 yuan, down 85 yuan (- 0.35%) from March 20. The spot average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 23,870 yuan on March 27, down 160 yuan (- 0.67%) from March 20 [9]. - Zinc: The futures closing price of the main contract ZN2605 on March 27, 2026, was 23,380 yuan, up 445 yuan (1.94%) from March 20. The spot price of zinc ingots was 21,970 yuan on March 27, down 420 yuan (- 1.88%) from March 20 [9]. - Tin: The futures closing price of the main contract SN2605 on March 27, 2026, was 362,460 yuan, up 19,980 yuan (5.83%) from March 20. The spot average price in Shanghai Wumaom remained unchanged at 354,000 yuan [9]. - Nickel: The futures closing price of the main contract NI2605 on March 27, 2026, was 137,100 yuan, up 3,940 yuan (2.96%) from March 20. The spot average price of 1 nickel was 139,260 yuan on March 27, up 1,630 yuan (1.18%) from March 20 [9]. 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price moved in a range. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle - East was affected again, which short - term boosted the price. Domestically, the downstream processing start - up rate increased, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year. The inventory trends in East and South China were divergent [13]. - View: The aluminum price has the power to strengthen in the short - term due to the tense situation. The focus is on geopolitical events and the inventory inflection point [13]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, the zinc price stopped falling and fluctuated. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in April is expected to face upward pressure. The start - up rate of the galvanizing industry decreased slightly, mainly due to environmental protection in some northern regions [15]. - View: The price has stopped falling in the short - term, but long - term supply increase pressure exists. Be vigilant against the impact of macro - sentiment [15]. - **Tin** - Logic: In February, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, which drags down the tin price. The conflict between the US and Iran has affected the non - ferrous sector [16]. - View: The tin price will move in a range [16]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - Logic: The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded strongly last week. The supply is increasing, but there are expectations of future supply disruptions. The mid - stream demand is weak, but there is still medium - term support in the energy storage sector. The inventory has increased slightly, and the cost support is still strong [18]. - View: The price will fluctuate in a wide range, and be cautious about technical corrections [18]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 515 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of imported bauxite was 68.32 US dollars/ton, up 2.04 US dollars week - on - week [23]. - Arrival and Departure Volumes: The arrival volume at ports was 3.7005 million tons, down 0.7154 million tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 4.9489 million tons, down 0.6207 million tons week - on - week [24]. - **Alumina** - Price and Cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,805 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week; the full cost was 2,738.7 yuan/ton, up 31.7 yuan week - on - week; the profit in Shanxi was 54.21 yuan/ton, up 37.27 yuan week - on - week [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,477.63 yuan/ton, up 68.58 yuan week - on - week [31]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan week - on - week [31]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy were 66%, 73.6%, 71%, 59%, 55%, and 59.5% respectively [36][38]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 40,800 tons, down 2,800 tons week - on - week; the total bonded - area inventory was 47,000 tons, down 2,800 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 1.373 million tons, up 36,000 tons week - on - week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 128,100 tons, up 30,100 tons week - on - week [41]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month, the main contract, and the third - consecutive contract were - 60 yuan/ton, - 125 yuan/ton, and - 215 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend week - on - week [47]. - Monthly Spread of Shanghai Aluminum: The spreads between the current month and the main contract, and between the current month and the third - consecutive contract were - 65 yuan/ton and - 155 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend week - on - week [48]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 19,962 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan week - on - week; the domestic processing fee remained unchanged at 1,550 yuan/metal ton; the imported processing fee was 2.28 US dollars/dry ton, down 7.51 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 6,962 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan week - on - week; the import profit and loss was - 745.86 yuan/ton, down 426.31 yuan week - on - week; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 140,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week [61]. - **Refined Zinc** - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 248,200 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week; the bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 148,830 tons, down 3,436 tons week - on - week; the LME inventory was 115,375 tons, down 2,300 tons week - on - week [64]. - **Galvanizing** - Output: The output was 350,630 tons, up 4,540 tons week - on - week [68]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate was 58.88%, down 0.82 percentage points week - on - week [68]. - Inventory: The raw - material inventory was 15,240 tons, down 130 tons week - on - week; the finished - product inventory was 369,200 tons, down 5,900 tons week - on - week [68]. - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread** - Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month, the main contract, and the third - consecutive contract were - 125 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 180 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend week - on - week [72]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between the current month and the main contract, and between the current month and the third - consecutive contract were - 45 yuan/ton and - 55 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend week - on - week [76]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Output and Start - up Rate: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.329 million tons, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week; the combined start - up rate was 67.89%, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week [81]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory** - SHFE Inventory: The total inventory was 8,400 tons, down 1,642 tons week - on - week [84]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,102 tons, down 1,875 tons week - on - week [84]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee** - The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged week - on - week, but increased year - on - year [87]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss** - The import profit and loss level was 30,477.01 yuan/ton, down 9,422.72 yuan week - on - week [88]. - **Spot Average Price** - The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained unchanged week - on - week but increased year - on - year [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Trading Volume** - The closing price of the main contract was 168,440 yuan/ton, up 17.09% week - on - week; the trading volume was 324,620 lots, up 25.69% week - on - week; the open interest was 247,637 lots, down 10.46% week - on - week; the basis was - 10,440 yuan/ton, down 303.11% week - on - week [96]. - **Supply** - Start - up Rate: The total weekly start - up rate was 56.57%, up 2.59% week - on - week; the start - up rates of lithium - spodumene, salt - lake, lithium - mica, and recycled - material production were 72.18%, 62.14%, 33.93%, and 35.75% respectively, all showing an upward trend week - on - week [97]. - Output: The total weekly output was 24,814 tons, up 2.60% week - on - week; the outputs of lithium - spodumene, salt - lake, lithium - mica, and recycled - material production were 15,314 tons, 3,715 tons, 3,227 tons, and 2,558 tons respectively, with different changes week - on - week [100][101]. - **Demand** - Ternary Materials: The weekly output was 18,100 tons, up 3.50% week - on - week; the inventory was 19,000 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week; the inventory days were 7.1 days, down 1.39% week - on - week [106]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly output was almost the same as last week; the inventory was 107,700 tons, up 0.95% week - on - week [106]. - Power Cells: The weekly output was 30.15 GWh, up 2.80% week - on - week; the output of lithium - iron - phosphate cells was 24 GWh, up 3.67% week - on - week; the output of ternary cells was 6.15 GWh, down 0.49% week - on - week [106]. - New - energy Vehicle Sales: On March 22, the weekly sales of new - energy vehicles were 210,000, down 26.32% week - on - week; the penetration rate was 58.5%, up 15.16% week - on - week [108]. - Energy Storage Cells: In February, the monthly start - up rate was 79.87%, down 10.84% month - on - month; the output was 56.07 GWh, down 11.03% month - on - month; the shipment was 58.86 GWh, down 11.70% month - on - month; the inventory was 32.2 GWh, down 5.85% month - on - month [108]. - **Inventory** - Social Inventory: The social inventory in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Sichuan was 39,300 tons, down 3.32% week - on - week [112]. - Sample Weekly Inventory: The total sample weekly inventory was 99,500 tons, up 0.62% week - on - week; the inventories of smelters, downstream, and others were 17,300 tons, 46,700 tons, and 35,500 tons respectively, with different changes week - on - week [112]. - Inventory Days: The total inventory days were 27.9 days, up 0.72% week - on - week [112]. - **Cost and Profit - raw Material Market** - Lithium Spodumene: The average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,136.6 US dollars/ton, up 0.23% week - on - week; the average price of lithium - spodumene (Chinese spot 5% - 5.5%) was 14,390 yuan/ton, down 0.83% week - on - week [115]. - Lithium Mica: The average prices of Li2O:1.5% - 2.0% and Li2O:2.0% - 2.5% lithium mica were 3,212 yuan/ton and 4,663 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend week - on - week [115]. - Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum Stone: The average prices of Li2O:6% - 7% and Li2O:7% - 8% phosphorus - lithium

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Sugar**: The external raw sugar is stronger than the domestic market. The sugar - making season in Inner Mongolia has ended, and the expected beet planting area is decreasing. Due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and cautious capital sentiment, the domestic spot price remains stable with average trading volume. In the short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern affected by geopolitics and the external market [3]. - **Cotton**: The short - term conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, increasing macro risks. The release of domestic quotas has increased short - term supply, leading to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, with low downstream inventory, fast finished - product destocking and good consumption performance, there is still support for cotton prices. The internal - external price difference has been repaired recently, and attention should be paid to the new - year planting intention report to be released by USDA next week [14]. - **Apple**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is progressing. The trading atmosphere of high - quality goods in the production area is good, and the market shows a two - tiered differentiation, with high - quality goods having stronger prices and ordinary goods being weaker. The inventory removal speed in cold storage has accelerated, and the shortage of delivery products for the 05 contract is prominent. The fundamentals and delivery logic provide dual positive support for the market [20]. - **Jujube**: The new - year planting season has not arrived yet, and the market focus is still on the demand side. Currently, the downstream sales are mediocre, and replenishment is light. Under the short - term geopolitical conflict, market funds are flowing, but the driving force for jujube is limited. With the overall loose domestic supply - demand situation, there is still pressure on the upside of jujube prices, and it may mainly fluctuate at a low level to build a bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On March 27, 2026, SR01 closed at 5634 with a daily increase of 0.12% and a weekly increase of 0.68%; SR03 closed at 5643 with a daily increase of 0.12% and a weekly increase of 0.88%; SR05 closed at 5464 with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.46%; SR07 closed at 5485 with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.4%; SR09 closed at 5487 with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.33%; SR11 closed at 5503 with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.35%. SB closed at 15.85 with a daily increase of 2.06% and a weekly increase of 1.41%; W closed at 459.6 with a daily increase of 1.21% and a weekly increase of 2.00% [4]. - **Basis**: On March 26, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 167, with a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly decrease of 27; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 307, with a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly decrease of 52. Similar data are provided for other contracts [9]. - **Import Price Changes**: On March 27, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4331, with a daily decrease of 68 and a weekly increase of 155; the out - of - quota price was 5497, with a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly increase of 202. Similar data are provided for Thai sugar imports [12]. Cotton - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On March 27, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 15930 with an increase of 30 and a rise - fall rate of 0.19%; cotton 05 closed at 15395 with a decrease of 25 and a fall rate of 0.16%; cotton 09 closed at 15530 with a decrease of 15 and a fall rate of 0.1%. The price of cotton basis was 1419 with an increase of 94; the spread of cotton 01 - 05 was 535 with an increase of 55; the spread of cotton 05 - 09 was - 135 with a decrease of 10; the spread of cotton 09 - 01 was - 400 with a decrease of 45; the flower - yarn spread was 6195 with no change; the internal - external cotton spread was 3475 with a decrease of 67; the internal - external yarn spread was 205 with an increase of 59 [15]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On March 27, 2026, AP01 closed at 8600 with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly decrease of 0.54%; AP03 closed at 8577 with a daily increase of 0.5% and a weekly decrease of 0.2%; AP04 closed at 9582 with a daily increase of 1.76% and a weekly increase of 1.78%; AP05 closed at 9967 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a weekly decrease of 7.03%; AP10 closed at 8767 with a daily increase of 0.96% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; AP11 closed at 8579 with a daily increase of 0.73% and a weekly decrease of 0.65%; AP12 closed at 8603 with a daily increase of 0.86% and a weekly decrease of 0.51. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.35 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 6.25 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.00%; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.5 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.3 with no daily or weekly change. The disk profit was - 949 with a daily decrease of 3.06% and a weekly decrease of 33.03%; the delivery theoretical price was 9800 with no daily or weekly change; the main contract basis was - 149 with a daily decrease of 16.76% and a weekly decrease of 75.85% [21]. - **Spread**: The spread of AP01 - 05 was - 1407 with a daily decrease of 3.17% and a weekly decrease of 27.44%; the spread of AP05 - 10 was 1262 with a daily decrease of 3.81% and a weekly decrease of 29.26%; the spread of AP10 - 01 was 145 with a daily increase of 2.84% and a weekly decrease of 6.45% [21][22]. Jujube - **Futures Spreads**: The report provides historical data on jujube futures spreads for different contract combinations (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) from 2022 - 2026 [29][31]. - **Price Trends**: The report shows the price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas (Aksu, Alar, Kashi) and main - selling areas (Hebei, Henan) from 2022 - 2025 [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market for plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, oil prices, and supply - demand dynamics. Geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as conflicts and attacks on oil facilities, have a significant impact on the global supply of raw materials, leading to price fluctuations in the L and PP markets [1][8]. - Economic indicators, such as the EuroCoin index, domestic car inventory warning index, and various price and production indices, also play a role in determining the market trends of L and PP. For example, changes in the EuroCoin index can have a positive or negative impact on commodities, while changes in the domestic car inventory warning index can affect the demand for related products [2]. - The profitability of MTO - made PP has shown significant changes, with some periods seeing a rise in profit margins, which can influence the production and market supply of PP [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: - The price of LLDPE in the L market has fluctuated, with some days showing price increases and others showing decreases. The price changes range from 50 - 250 yuan/ton, 500 - 800 yuan/ton, etc., depending on different dates. Market trading atmosphere is often cautious, with downstream factories having different levels of purchasing enthusiasm [1][4]. - The L主力2605 contract has also shown different trends, with some days rising and others falling. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it closed at 8683 points, down 235 points or 2.64% [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: - The domestic PP market price has also fluctuated, generally with narrow - range adjustments. The price changes are often around 100 - 150 yuan/ton, 300 - 600 yuan/ton, etc. The market sentiment is affected by factors such as production enterprise price adjustments and downstream demand [1][4]. - The PP主力2605 contract has similar trends to the L contract, with price fluctuations on different days. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it closed at 8900 points, down 214 points or 2.35% [1]. Important News - Geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as conflicts and attacks on oil facilities in the UAE, have led to disruptions in the global oil and petrochemical supply chains, affecting the prices of L and PP [1][8][17]. - Industry - related policies and announcements, such as the release of the "List of Products at Risk of Oversupply in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 Edition)" by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, have an impact on market expectations [59]. - The development of the logistics industry and the changes in the global economic situation also have an impact on the L and PP markets. For example, the decline in the ratio of China's total social logistics costs to GDP reflects the transformation of the logistics industry, which can affect the cost and demand of the L and PP industries [48]. Logical Analysis - Economic indicators, such as the EuroCoin index, domestic car inventory warning index, and various price and production indices, are used to analyze the market trends of L and PP. For example, a rise in the EuroCoin index is slightly positive for commodities, while a rise in the domestic car inventory warning index is slightly negative for commodities [2]. - The profitability of MTO - made PP, the inventory levels of L and PP, and the production capacity utilization rates are important factors in analyzing the market. For example, an increase in the profitability of MTO - made PP can lead to an increase in production and supply, while changes in inventory levels can affect market prices [4][5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: - For the L主力2605 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. - For the PP主力2605 contract, similar strategies are adopted, such as holding long positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach [1]. - **Arbitrage trading**: - The SPC L2605&PP2605 contract is used for arbitrage trading. Strategies include holding short positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach [2][5]. - **Options trading**: - In most cases, the reports recommend a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on February 27, 2026. Some commodities like tin and platinum rose, while others like alumina and propylene declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and most treasury bond futures also showed positive trends, except for the 30 - year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal changes. For example, the price of copper is affected by inventory and downstream demand; the price of lithium carbonate is influenced by supply reduction and market expectations; and the price of crude oil is closely related to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production plans [8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: It opened low and closed high. Supply is expected to be stable at a high level, with a slight decrease in February. Demand is weak as downstream factories have not fully resumed work, and high inventory suppresses prices. However, the weak dollar supports the price, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and was weak during the day. The supply is expected to decrease in February due to seasonal and holiday - related factors. The demand is relatively high, and the market has a "third lithium price super - cycle" expectation. However, domestic inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be in a consolidation phase [9][10]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: It fell by more than 3%. No detailed analysis provided in the report. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum rose by more than 5%, and palladium rose by more than 2%. No detailed analysis provided in the report. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron rose by more than 3%, and manganese silicon rose by more than 2%. No detailed analysis provided in the report. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may consider increasing production in April. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and the US - Iran negotiation results are uncertain. The US crude inventory has increased significantly. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a low level, with a decrease in production in February. The downstream is slowly resuming work, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to follow the oil price fluctuations, and an anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [12][13]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 is at a neutral - low level. The inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to shrink [14]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a neutral - high level, and the downstream开工率 decreased seasonally. There is new production capacity. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to shrink [16]. - **PVC**: The开工率 increased, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The price is under pressure but is expected to have limited decline due to policy and export expectations [17][19]. Coal and Fertilizers - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and rebounded slightly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream is in a slow recovery. The steel - mill emission reduction during the Two Sessions may affect short - term production, and the price is under pressure [20]. - **Urea**: It opened high and closed in the positive territory. The supply is stable, and the demand is mainly from agriculture. The inventory increased during the holiday but is expected to start decreasing after the Lantern Festival. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

Core Viewpoint - Baichuan Co., Ltd. (002455.SZ) announced an abnormal stock trading fluctuation, indicating that recent market supply and demand factors have led to an increase in the market prices of some of its main products, but the sustainability of these price fluctuations remains uncertain, making it difficult to predict the impact on the company's performance [1] Group 1 - The company reported a rise in market prices for some of its main products due to supply and demand factors [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the price fluctuations [1] - The company is unable to estimate the extent of the impact on its performance at this time [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's product prices are influenced by various factors, including market supply and demand dynamics and industry development trends [2] - The company will adopt appropriate pricing strategies based on actual market supply and demand conditions [2] - The company commits to disclosing relevant information in accordance with the requirements of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2]

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].

Report Core View - The economic ideas and market operation thinking in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" have important reference significance for today's futures investment transactions, and investors can improve investment success rate and return level by learning from them [5] Key Points Influence of National Policies on the Market - The national macro - policies in the futures market, like the state intervention in the salt and iron monopoly policy in the Western Han Dynasty, have a crucial impact on the market trend, such as reserve and import - export policies affecting commodity futures prices [2] Different Market Participants - In the futures market, hedgers are similar to producers or consumers in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" who want to ensure their own interests through a stable market, while speculators are like those who look for business opportunities in policy changes [3] Market Supply - and - Demand Relationship - Supply - and - demand relationship is a core factor determining price trends in futures trading, similar to the impact of salt and iron supply and demand on prices in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" [3] Investment Philosophy - In futures investment, investors should pursue both profit and market fairness and stability, and avoid excessive speculation. They should also maintain a rational and objective attitude and make comprehensive analyses [4]