gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价高位下调，跨年涨势快，外盘多头减仓锁盈。国内铜市关注基本面变动，上海铜贴水50 元、精废价差扩至6000元，等待本周社库。伦铜关注实值期权仓量变动。前期2602期权组合策略仍 可持有。 【铝】 隔夜有色整体回落。开年资金助推沪铝冲击历史高点后回落，未能创造历史新高，短期走势和基本 面背离，有色整体波动率高，投机保持谨慎。吨铝利润飙升至8000元附近，铝厂卖出保值考虑参 与。 综合晨报 2026年01月08日 (原油) 当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库格局，从EIA、 IEA、OPEC三大机构平衡表预估情况来看, 2026Q1全球原油市场面临较大累库压力。美委局势难为油价反弹提供持续性的基本面支撑，反而美 国对委内打击目标在于快速实现政权更迭后接管委内石油资源，若后续制裁放松、外资重新进入委 内石油基础设施,则委内石油产量及出口面临增加可能。综上,油价主基调仍为供需宽松主导的中 枢下行趋势。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业 PM154.4好于预期和前值，上期所调整白银期货交易 ...

文｜每日人物 谢韫力 编辑 | Yang 2026年一开年，车厘子价格暴跌的话题就冲上热搜，"一天一个价"。多位水果商透露，与2024年年底相比，车厘子价格整体下滑了20%～30%。 价格快速下行的背后，是更早成熟的果子，沿着愈发密集、高效的运输网络涌入中国，但消费端的市场却较为冷清，难以消化如此庞大的到货量，不得不 降价。 不过，最新的消息传来，智利水果出口商协会更新了去年供应量预测，产量由增转减，"这意味着车厘子价格很可能即将稳定，甚至出现反转。" 但车厘子为何早熟、产量预测为何反复，很难有统一答案。一位真正去到智利的进口商认为，产量减少，自然环境不稳定，正一步步传导至经济体系，扰 乱每笔贸易，商人们也被裹挟其中。 降价最快的一年 走到精品水果货架区前，紫红色的果子堆积成小山，鲜亮诱人，看清价格后吴跃有些吃惊，JJ级五斤礼盒售价为160元（J是车厘子大小计量单位，J越多 果子越大），JJJ级五斤装209元，"换算下来只要30～40元一斤，比往年便宜多了。"同一片贵价水果区里，丹东红颜草莓2斤要129元，马来西亚猫山王榴 莲则普遍在200元以上一只，1公斤云南草莓礼盒也接近150元。 几天后，她再次打开那家 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation. Although steel exports are at a high level and macro - policies have a positive impact, the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the market [1]. - Iron ore: Volatility. The supply from Australia is rising while that from Brazil is falling, iron - water production is decreasing, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Coking coal: Weak volatility. The supply increase is limited, the actual market demand is insufficient, and the downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Coke: Weak volatility. The coke output is increasing, and the terminal consumption demand is average, with the impact of weather on transportation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Volatility. The cost is high, production is decreasing, demand is to be boosted, and inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatility. The cost is high, supply reduction is limited, and the market expectation is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (1.08% decline), and the position increased by 0.3 million hands. Spot prices declined slightly. In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. The cumulative export from January to November was 10771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [1]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (1.1% decline). Australian shipments rebounded, Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased, and inventories increased [1]. - **Coking coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (4.08% decline), and the position increased by 24153 hands. The supply increase was limited, and the actual market demand was insufficient [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1537 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (3.03% decline), and the position increased by 1550 hands. The coke output increased, and the terminal consumption demand was average [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract price of manganese silicon was 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The production cost was high, the weekly output decreased by 3.5% for 5 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises reached a new high [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5444 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. After the electricity price adjustment in November, the production reduction intention increased. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 6.0, and the 5 - 10 month spread was - 41.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 01 contract was 163.0, and that of the 05 contract was 157.0 [4]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3280.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The rebar's on - disk profit was 27.0, and the long - process profit was - 29.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 168.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][45]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director and Black Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - spot trading [55].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, base metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share markets had mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The four major index futures contracts declined, and the basis discount was repaired. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and suggest a wait - and - see approach, with a possible light - position short - put option strategy [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures mostly declined. The market sentiment is weak in the short - term, but there may be a rebound if the central bank's bond - buying scale exceeds expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 2603 contract cash - and - carry strategy [5][8]. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are analyzed. The long - term bull market in precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as central bank purchases and increased allocation of financial - attribute commodities. Short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by factors like Fed officials' divergence and economic data. Specific strategies are provided for each metal, such as holding silver long - positions and a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [9][11][12]. Commodity Futures Base Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - biased in the short - term, with 12 - month interest rate cut expectations and improving downstream demand. The mid - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports a rising price bottom [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a bottom - range oscillation. The supply shows signs of contraction, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. The price is expected to remain in the 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton range [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, with a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. The overseas supply risk and domestic weak demand are in a stand - off [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The cost is supportive, and the demand shows resilience, but high prices still suppress overall procurement [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the demand shows structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the squeeze risk eases slightly [24][27]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand in the South China region shows resilience [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The low - valuation and production cuts drive a small - scale recovery, but the overall upward drive is limited [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost support weakens, and the supply pressure remains high, with weak demand in the off - season [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market may have increased divergence, with a current situation of strong supply and demand and social inventory reduction [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The spot price stabilizes, while the silicon wafer and cell prices continue to fall [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range. The supply decreases, and the demand is not optimistic, with inventory accumulation pressure [44][45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to have a central - downward movement in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - rebar short - iron ore arbitrage [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to run weakly in the short - term. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is difficult to have an independent unilateral market without new macro - drivers [50][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand for replenishment weakens [53][57]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply increases, the demand weakens, and the inventory is moderately increasing [58][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate. There is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [60][62]. - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains, and it is necessary to pay attention to the logic of production capacity reduction [63].

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices are expected to remain low in the short term, with a potential for a slight rebound starting in July 2026, influenced by the ongoing culling of laying hens and seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 13, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.08 yuan per jin, while the feed cost per jin is 3.00 yuan, leading to a negative profit margin for producers [1]. - The average profit per jin of eggs has decreased to -0.20 yuan in November, down from -0.12 yuan earlier in the second half of the year, indicating worsening financial conditions for producers [1]. Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing increase in the culling of laying hens is expected to lead to a gradual decline in the number of laying hens, with projections indicating a significant drop to approximately 1.21 billion hens by December 2026 [3]. - A tightening supply, coupled with stable consumer demand, is anticipated to fundamentally alter the market dynamics, potentially alleviating the current weak price conditions for eggs and laying hens [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of prolonged low prices to a phase of slight price recovery, with the turning point for egg prices likely occurring around July 2026 [5]. - The timing and extent of the price rebound will depend on the concentration and duration of the culling process; a rapid and concentrated culling could lead to a quicker and more substantial price recovery, while a slow and dispersed culling would result in a prolonged recovery period [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Macroscopically, the expected end of the US government "shutdown" has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, providing some support for commodity prices. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products continued, but the slowdown in the decline of rebar inventory and the increase in hot - rolled coil inventory, along with the continuous decline in hot metal, have put pressure on steel prices. Currently, steel prices are near previous lows, and it is expected that the downward space is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations. Medium - term, pay attention to new macro - driving factors from mid - November to December [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, overseas markets focused on liquidity risks, with a phased increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The high - level US dollar index pressured commodities. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products slowed down, with rebar slightly reducing inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing. Steel prices fluctuated weakly under pressure [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. National rebar weekly production was 208.54 tons (down 1.91% week - on - week and 10.77% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 318.16 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and up 2.13% year - on - year). Rebar production from both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased [13][15]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate increased, while the electric furnace operating rate decreased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.13% (up 1.69% week - on - week and 0.84% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 67.03% (down 2.62% week - on - week and 4.37% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved slightly. Rebar profit was - 39 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 188 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 80 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. Rebar apparent consumption was 218.52 tons (down 5.89% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.64 tons (down 7.81% week - on - week and 23.09% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.3 tons (down 5.30% week - on - week and 1.48% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar de - stocking slowed down, with both factory and social inventories slightly decreasing. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased, with social inventory rising and factory inventory slightly decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the transactions of commercial housing and land both decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][50]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased periodically. The iron ore price index was 104.13 (down 2.23% week - on - week and up 2.96% year - on - year), the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2683.5 tons (down 5.66% week - on - week and up 0.39% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2741.2 tons (down 14.83% week - on - week and up 17.80% year - on - year) [53][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased month - on - month, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 234.22 tons (down 2.14 tons week - on - week and up 0.16 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.93 tons (up 0.24% week - on - week and 2.08% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.21 days (up 2.83% week - on - week and down 0.89% year - on - year) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory continued to rise, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventory increased slightly. The inventory at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons (up 2.45% week - on - week and down 2.50% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9009.94 tons (up 1.81% week - on - week and down 1.32% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.25 days (up 3.85% week - on - week and 12.74% year - on - year) [64][68]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines continued to decline, while Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level. The operating rate of coking mines was 83.76% (down 1.20% week - on - week and 6.71% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 37.61% (up 3.15% week - on - week and down 11.96% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.55 tons (up 52.78% week - on - week and 3.73% year - on - year) [70][74]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.25% (down 37.74% week - on - week and 34.35% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 88.42% (down 5.00% week - on - week and up 3.11% year - on - year) [75][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 22 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.31% (down 1.54% week - on - week and 1.61% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.99% (down 0.26% week - on - week and 1.87% year - on - year) [79][83]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory continued to rise, and coking plant inventory continued to increase. Coke port inventory decreased, and coking plant inventory remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price increase started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week and 10 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 270 yuan/ton year - on - year) [96][100]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar narrowed. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar slightly widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke widened [102][108].

Core Viewpoint - The property market in Guangzhou is experiencing significant price declines, particularly in previously popular developments like Lanting Shenghui, which has seen a nearly 60% drop in price per square meter, leading to substantial losses for investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Decline in Lanting Shenghui - Lanting Shenghui's price per square meter fell from 84,000 yuan to 37,000 yuan, representing a decrease of nearly 60% [1]. - In 2022, a 64-square-meter unit sold for 5.48 million yuan, with a price per square meter of 84,000 yuan, while recent transactions show similar units selling for only 256,000 yuan, or 37,446 yuan per square meter, indicating a loss of nearly 3 million yuan in value [4][5]. Group 2: Overall Market Trends in Guangzhou - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in September, Guangzhou's new home prices fell by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices dropped by 6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, indicating a widening decline in the second-hand market [6][8]. - During the National Day holiday, new home transactions in Guangzhou increased by 26.4% year-on-year, but the overall market showed signs of cooling, with a significant drop in second-hand home transactions [13][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Buyer Sentiment - The decline in buyer confidence is attributed to previous policy relaxations and current market conditions, leading to a cautious approach among potential buyers [14][19]. - Areas experiencing the most significant price drops include peripheral and suburban regions, where supply has outpaced demand due to slow infrastructure development [15][19]. Group 4: Characteristics of Affected Properties - Properties facing severe price corrections often have inherent issues such as poor location, inadequate amenities, and outdated designs, which are becoming more pronounced in a buyer's market [19]. - The market is witnessing a shift in buyer preferences, with younger buyers favoring newer properties with better access to transportation over older, less desirable units [17][19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Live Pigs and Corn" [1][2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Tian Jinlian [3] Group 2: Live Pig Market Market Performance - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,140 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 1.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [4] - Profit: As of October 10, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.26, down 0.18 week - on - week [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Group farms continued to increase supply, and although some retail farmers had the psychology of delaying sales, the overall market supply did not decrease [4] - Demand: After the holiday, demand declined, and market transactions were weak [4] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the live pig market is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of farmers and the performance of secondary fattening [4] Group 3: Corn Market Market Performance - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2601 contract closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [5] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2,308.43 yuan/ton, down 60.2 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] - Port: Prices at major ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all declined [5] Industrial Consumption - Deep - processing: From October 2 to October 8, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, an increase of 31,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Starch: The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons; the weekly output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up from the previous week [6] - Alcohol: The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the weekly production was 111,840 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 6.78% [6] Inventory - Processing Enterprises: As of October 8, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.334 million tons, an increase of 14.64% [6] - Ports: As of October 10, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 320,000 tons [6] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is gradually being listed, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased [7] - Demand: The operating rate of the industry is gradually increasing, and there is still an expectation of further improvement [7] - Outlook: In the short term, corn prices are still under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton on the futures market [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].