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36氪精选:这个江西小山城,「烤」出300亿面包产业
日经中文网· 2025-10-11 04:00
编者荐语: 日经中文网与36氪开展内容交换合作。将精选36氪的精彩独家财经、科技、企业资讯,与读者分享。 以下文章来源于36氪 ,作者于精京 方婷 36氪 . 36氪是服务中国新经济参与者的卓越品牌和开创性平台,提供新锐深度的商业报道,强调趋势和价值,我们的slogan是:让一部分 人先看到未来。 江西帮正在悄悄统治着中国烘焙界。 文 | 于精京 编辑 | 方婷 图文无关(Reuters) 封面来源 | Reuters 一说起烘焙店,很多人脑海里的印象都是:精致门店,网红打卡,随手一拍就是INS风。无论怎么看,都跟江西这个内陆省份挂 不上钩。 请观看36氪原创视频 也欢迎关注36氪视频号 这一切是怎么发生的?故事要从1987年说起。 那一年,两个刚刚退伍的江西小伙,张协旺和洪涛,带着在部队期间学到的面包烘焙技术,回到江西老家开出了一家"鹭江面包 店"。 在那个面包还是稀罕物的年代,靠着洋气的定位和亲民的价格, 他们开业第一年就净赚了3万块。要知道,1987年的城镇居民人 均可支配收入才只有1002。 于是,做面包能发财的消息,像病毒一样在十里八乡炸开了锅。 在当年,做面包还是一个门槛很高的手艺,技术传男不传女 ...
中国商业联合会直播电商委副会长、网经社曹磊:电商就业促进面临的现实挑战与结构性困境
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 03:29
电商已成为推动就业增长的重要力量,为社会创造了大量高质量就业岗位,成为稳就业、促发展的关键 引擎。阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、唯品会、美团、滴滴、携程等电商平台不仅直接创造了大量就业岗 位,更通过产业链延伸、模式创新和区域协同发展,为不同群体提供了多元化的就业机会。对此,网经 社组织行业专家,独家策划了"史上最多大学毕业季 电商如何解锁就业密码?"。 对此,中国商业联合会直播电商委副会长、网经社曹磊接受数字经济新媒体&智库#网经社 独家专访。 电商助力就业面临的不足与难题 1.人才供需的结构性错配 电商行业存在显著的"有人没活干,有活没人干"现象。一方面,大量高校毕业生和求职者寻找电商岗 位;另一方面,企业却难以找到符合要求的专业人才。 课程与市场脱节:高校电子商务专业课程更新速度远跟不上行业发展。高校教材更新周期通常需要2-3 年,当学生还在学习传统电商平台运营策略时,市场已转向短视频直播、元宇宙购物等新形态。这导致 毕业生难以满足企业实际需求,许多学生不懂跨境支付流程、不熟悉海外仓等物流模式、不了解海外市 场准入标准。 复合型人才稀缺:企业急需既懂技术、又通商业、还了解法律的复合型电商人才,但高校培养的毕业生 ...
专家分享:钾肥、磷肥行业中长期趋势分享
2025-09-28 14:57
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industry trends, focusing on global supply and demand dynamics for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Insights on Potassium Fertilizer - **Global Supply and Demand**: - In 2024, global potassium fertilizer supply is expected to reach a historical high, primarily due to recovery in production from Canada, Russia, and former Soviet Union countries, although not fully back to 2021 levels [1]. - Global demand for potassium fertilizer is driven by price declines, government support, and increased soybean demand from South America [1][3]. - China's resource-type potassium fertilizer production is projected to grow slightly by 1.65% in 2024, with a significant increase of 15.6% in sulfate of potash (SOP) production [2]. - **Cost Trends**: - The global on-site cost for potassium fertilizer in 2024 is estimated at $128 per ton, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a slight increase to $131 per ton expected in 2025 [10]. - **Future Supply Projections**: - Global potassium fertilizer supply in 2025 is expected to remain stable or slightly lower than in 2024, with potential increases from Russia and Belarus [5][7]. - New potassium fertilizer capacity of 14.7 million tons is anticipated from 2025 to 2029, with approximately 40% of the investment coming from China [7]. - **Market Dynamics**: - High contract prices for 2025 are attributed to low inventory levels in overseas markets and operational impacts from major suppliers [11]. Key Insights on Phosphorus Fertilizer - **Demand Factors**: - The demand for phosphorus fertilizer is influenced by declining inventory levels and increased consumption in the renewable energy sector [3][12]. - Phosphate rock production is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with Hubei and Yunnan provinces contributing over 60% of the total production [13]. - **Supply and Capacity**: - New phosphorus rock capacity is projected to be close to 65 million tons from 2025 to 2029, but only about 30% of this is expected to be realized [14]. - Domestic self-sufficiency in phosphorus rock is around 98%, with imports becoming increasingly necessary due to production shortfalls [15]. - **Price Trends**: - Phosphate rock prices have surged since 2020, with high-grade resources nearing 1,000 RMB, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [19]. - Future prices are expected to stabilize between 800 to 1,000 RMB if new capacity does not meet expectations [21]. Additional Important Insights - **Environmental and Operational Challenges**: - Tailings pond backfilling is crucial for reducing subsidence risks, which can impact long-term potassium fertilizer production [6]. - The BHP Jansen Lake project has faced delays, pushing its production timeline from 2026 to mid-2027 due to budget overruns and extended timelines [9]. - **Market Outlook**: - The overall market for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers is expected to remain stable, with traditional demand patterns continuing, while renewable energy sector demand is anticipated to grow significantly [22]. - **Production Calculations**: - Phosphate rock production is calculated based on a standard ore content of 30%, with discrepancies noted between reported and actual production levels due to utilization rates [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industries, their current status, and future outlooks.
港股市场前景看好,政策与资金双重助力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 02:10
Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is showing unique investment value due to a combination of factors, particularly driven by policy support and capital inflows [1] - The Chinese government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy provide a stable environment for economic growth, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Recent policy measures announced by the Chief Executive of Hong Kong aim to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market vitality and providing investors with diverse investment options [1] Group 2 - There is a significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, indicating increased demand from mainland investors [1][2] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks has increased for foreign investors due to the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, making it a primary channel for allocating quality Chinese assets [1] - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains significantly lower than other major markets, providing potential investment opportunities, especially in the technology sector [2] Group 3 - The industry structure of the Hong Kong stock market is undergoing optimization, with a shift from a finance-dominated market to a more diversified one, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and information technology [3] - The rise of new economic forces allows investors to access emerging companies through the Hong Kong stock market, effectively diversifying market risks and reducing portfolio volatility [3] - The current environment in the Hong Kong stock market is favorable for various types of investors, whether they seek steady long-term growth or aim to capitalize on short-term fluctuations [3]
中國股票基金助捕捉A股港股增長機遇
光大新鸿基· 2025-09-15 07:05
Group 1: Market Trends - The market anticipates the U.S. to initiate a rate cut cycle this month, with expectations of a 25 to 50 basis point reduction to stimulate economic growth[1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm employment data revised down by 911,000 for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative monetary policy[1] - The Hong Kong stock market has recently performed well, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 26,000 points, reaching a nearly four-year high, and net inflows from northbound capital amounting to at least 10 billion HKD[2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - H-shares are expected to benefit more from U.S. rate cuts compared to A-shares, as they are more sensitive to monetary easing, which could enhance valuation and profit growth potential[3] - The Dachen China Flexible Allocation Fund focuses on industry leaders' fundamentals and future growth potential, holding approximately 70.7% in stocks and 25.7% in bonds as of July 2025[3] - Analysts are raising target prices for Hong Kong stocks, indicating significant upside potential in the market[2]
中国股票策略 - A 股情绪进一步降温;等待宏观和政策明朗-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Cooling Further; Awaiting Macro and Policy Clarity
2025-09-12 07:28
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Current Sentiment**: Investor sentiment in the A-share market has cooled, with a notable decrease in trading volume and turnover across various segments [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: The Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) has dropped, with weighted and simple MSASI decreasing by 14 percentage points and 16 percentage points to 112% and 106%, respectively [2][7]. - **Trading Volume**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, equity futures, and Northbound trading fell by 14% (to RMB 568 billion), 16% (to RMB 1,982 billion), 28% (to RMB 404 billion), and 21% (to RMB 132 billion), respectively [2]. - **Earnings Estimates**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2][5]. - **Macro Data**: August inflation showed some improvement, primarily driven by consumer goods trade-in, but food prices remain a drag on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4][5]. - **Export Performance**: August exports were resilient despite missing market expectations, attributed to competitive supply chains and a weaker trade-weighted RMB. However, exports are expected to moderate in the second half of the year [5]. Important Developments - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 5.2 billion from September 4-10, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 133.4 billion and USD 8.7 billion, respectively [3]. - **Policy Initiatives**: China is preparing to address a significant backlog of unpaid bills owed by local governments to the private sector, amounting to USD 1 trillion [5]. - **Geopolitical Monitoring**: Ongoing monitoring of geopolitical developments, particularly between the US and China, is crucial for understanding potential market impacts [15]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investor Behavior**: Investors appear to be taking profits and awaiting clearer signals regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and corporate fundamentals [5]. - **Earnings Deterioration**: A-shares have shown some moderated deterioration in earnings as the second quarter results season concludes [5]. - **MSASI Methodology**: The MSASI is based on nine metrics that gauge onshore sentiment, including margin transactions, new investor registrations, and A-share turnover [16][17][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, macroeconomic indicators, and significant policy developments.
港股医药板块延续调整,恒生创新药ETF(159316)逆势获超1亿份净申购
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-10 11:22
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing growth in revenue and a significant reduction in losses, driven by technological breakthroughs, accelerated internationalization, and policy support [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index fell by 2.0%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index decreased by 1.1% [1]. - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index and the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index saw declines of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively [1]. - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) recorded over 100 million net subscriptions throughout the day, marking four consecutive days of net inflow, with the latest scale reaching 2.5 billion yuan, a historical high [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - CITIC Construction Investment Securities forecasts that by the first half of 2025, revenue for Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies will continue to grow, with losses significantly narrowing [1]. - The valuation of the innovative drug industry is expected to rise substantially, reflecting an enhancement in global competitiveness [1]. - The sector's accelerated development is attributed to three driving forces: technological breakthroughs, internationalization, and supportive policies [1].
政策利好叠加产业突破,关注港股科技回调机会
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-04 05:49
Group 1 - The capital market policies have significantly increased in intensity over the past two years, focusing more on supporting technological development [1] - The reform direction of the capital market aims to optimize resource allocation and guide orderly flow of factors to serve the development of new productivity [1] - China's technological breakthroughs, represented by innovations such as large models, robotics, smart cars, and quantum computing, are driven by top-level policy design that continuously optimizes the innovation ecosystem [1] - Under strong policy support and industry collaboration, China is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in technology [1] - Milestone breakthroughs have been achieved in several key technology fields in China since 2024, with Huawei's Ascend chip performance nearing international leading levels and the smart car industry chain demonstrating strong competitiveness in the global market [1] - Companies like iFlytek (002230) have surpassed international counterparts in core capabilities of large models, while BYD (002594) has reversed its electric platform technology to international giants [1] - This "pressure-response-breakthrough" innovation paradigm is reshaping the global technology competition landscape [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) closely tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, covering leading tech companies such as Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, BYD, SMIC, and BeiGene [2] - The top five constituent stocks account for 57% of the ETF's weight, while the top ten account for 77%, indicating a high concentration and broad coverage [2] - The ETF provides a one-stop investment tool for investors to access leading Chinese technology enterprises across "software and hardware + new consumption + innovative pharmaceuticals + new energy vehicles" [2]
新材料投资逻辑:战略自主与市场规律的双重博弈
材料汇· 2025-08-31 15:02
Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is experiencing significant growth, with China's total output value expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, while facing structural challenges in high-end technology reliance [2][7]. Global Competitive Landscape and China's Positioning - The global new materials industry has formed a stable competitive structure with the US, Japan, and Europe in the first tier, holding absolute advantages in core technologies and market share. China, along with South Korea and Russia, is in the second tier, rapidly catching up but still heavily reliant on imports for high-end polymers and electronic chemicals [4][5]. Investment Drivers in New Materials - The investment logic in the new materials sector is based on a "demand-policy-technology" triangle model, where market demand, supportive policies, and technological breakthroughs interact to determine investment value and timing [10]. Market Demand - The rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle industry is driving diverse demand for new materials, with revenue in structural materials expected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year in 2024 [11]. - The semiconductor and display industries are creating a growing market for high-end electronic chemicals, with significant progress in domestic production of photolithography materials [12]. Policy Support - China has established a comprehensive policy support system for the new materials industry, including financial backing through the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which has seen 51 new materials companies raise over 43 billion yuan [13]. - The standardization efforts by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are crucial for promoting the industrialization of new materials [14]. Technological Breakthroughs - Domestic companies are making significant strides in high-end polymer materials, with breakthroughs in POE and PI production expected to reduce import dependency [16][23]. - Patent layout and intellectual property protection are critical for competitive advantage, with domestic firms strengthening their patent portfolios in key areas [17]. Investment Value in Specific Segments High-End Polymer Materials - High-end polymer materials are characterized by high import dependency, with POE and PI showing import reliance rates of 95% and 85% respectively, presenting clear investment opportunities for domestic production [20]. Carbon Fiber Materials - The carbon fiber sector is transitioning from capacity expansion to quality improvement, with a notable increase in the production of high-end T700/T800 grade products [25]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind power and aerospace applications is expected to grow, providing investment opportunities in companies that can produce high-performance products [27]. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is experiencing a "gradient replacement" trend, with varying levels of domestic production across different product categories, highlighting investment opportunities in companies that can meet the growing demand for high-purity materials [28]. Biobased New Materials - The biobased materials market is projected to grow significantly, driven by policy mandates and decreasing production costs, with a focus on biobased BDO and PA showing promising investment potential [35][36]. Superconducting Materials - The superconducting materials market is expected to reach $28 billion in 2024, with investment opportunities centered around high-temperature superconductors and their applications in energy and medical fields [38][39]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with investment opportunities in electrolyte materials and high-nickel cathodes, as the industry shifts towards higher energy density and safety [40][44].
豆神教育上半年增利又增收 销售费用激增189%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 15:24
Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, Dou Shen Education reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by policy support and flexible market promotion strategies [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 449 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.13% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.33% [1] Business Segments - Dou Shen Education's main business segments include: - Arts education services: 294 million yuan in revenue - Live e-commerce: 44.66 million yuan in revenue - Smart education services: 32.81 million yuan in revenue [1] Market Dynamics - The growth in performance is attributed to: - National policy support that aligns with diverse cultural education needs - The company's proactive response to industry changes and enhanced sales capabilities through modern online sales models [1] Cost and Cash Flow - Sales expenses surged by 189.83% to 197 million yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -116 million yuan, a decline of 1085.36% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market promotion expenses [2]