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45%单日暴跌!债市四天蒸发70%,优等生变灰犀牛,为何说它仍非恒大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 20:53
2025年12月1日下午3点,A股收盘的钟声并未带来片刻平静。 万科A股价定格在5.2元,单日再跌3.35%,创下近十年新低。 而真正的风暴发生在债券市场——代号"万科04"的万科境内公司债单日暴跌45%,同系列"万科06"跌超39%,短短四天内,万科债券整体跌幅已达70%。 资本市场用脚投票,将这家曾经的房地产"优等生"推至生死边缘。 这场暴跌并非突然发生。 就在五天前的11月26日,万科公告将于12月10日召开债权人会议,协商推迟偿还20亿元"万科MTN004"债券。 这是万科首次公开寻求债务展期,市场解读为违约风险升级的信号。 更令人不安的是,国际评级机构标普在四周内连续两次下调万科信用评级,从"B-"直降至"CCC-",并将其列入负面观察名单。 标普在报告中明确指出:"万科的债务义务目前存在未偿还或困境重组的风险。" 但11月2日一份《框架协议》暴露了支持限度的残酷现实:剩余借款额度仅约22.9亿元,且全部要求资产抵押担保。 这意味着深铁的支持已从"无限兜底"转向"有限纾困"。 万科的资金缺口远超想象。 2025年三季度财报显示,其有息负债总额达3629亿元,其中短期债务占比高达42.7%,而账上现金 ...
中报点评|万科地产:业绩承压,彻底化解风险仍需“以时间换空间”
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-25 10:09
Core Viewpoint - Vanke's financial performance is under significant pressure, with a notable decline in sales and increasing losses, despite efforts to improve liquidity through shareholder loans and inventory management [2][3][22]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Vanke achieved a contract sales amount of 69.11 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 5.389 million square meters, representing year-on-year declines of 45.7% and 42.6% respectively, the highest drop among the top 10 real estate companies [2][6][9]. - The company has increased efforts to liquidate old inventory, achieving sales of 17.6 billion yuan from completed properties and 18.3 billion yuan from pre-sold properties [6][9]. Financial Results - Vanke's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 105.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, with a net profit loss of 11.947 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% compared to the previous year [3][18]. - The gross profit margin was 6.59%, showing a slight increase, but still remains low, with significant losses from joint ventures and inventory depreciation [3][18]. Debt and Liquidity - As of August 22, 2025, Vanke's major shareholder has provided a total of 23.88 billion yuan in loans, helping to improve the company's debt structure [3][22][23]. - The company's total interest-bearing debt was 364.26 billion yuan, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.48, indicating ongoing liquidity pressure [3][27]. Diversification Efforts - Vanke's diversified business segments contributed significantly to revenue, with non-real estate related income reaching approximately 27.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%, accounting for 26% of total revenue [4][31]. - The company has been actively expanding its property management and logistics services, with notable growth in revenue from these sectors [31][32].