Core Insights - The overall performance of the Shenwan basic chemical sector showed year-on-year recovery in the first half of 2025, with total operating revenue reaching 1,124.03 billion yuan, up 3.02% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.72 billion yuan, up 4.43% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The sectors with the highest revenue growth include fluorochemicals, modified plastics, civil explosives, other chemical raw materials, and adhesives and tapes [1][2]. - The sectors with the highest net profit growth include pesticides, fluorochemicals, potassium fertilizers, food and feed additives, and adhesives and tapes [1][2]. Underperforming Sectors - The sectors that faced significant performance pressure in the first half of 2025 include organic silicon, viscose, soda ash, and nylon inorganic salts [2]. Market Trends and Data - During the week of August 25 to August 29, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 2.71%, while the Shenwan petrochemical index fell by 0.57%, underperforming the market by 3.28 percentage points. The Shenwan basic chemical index increased by 1.11%, also underperforming the market by 1.60 percentage points [4]. - The top five sectors by growth were fluorochemicals (8.35%), nitrogen fertilizers (6.17%), coal chemicals (5.59%), compound fertilizers (3.14%), and pesticides (2.01%). The sectors with the largest declines included other rubber products (-5.00%), coatings and inks (-3.64%), viscose (-3.28%), oilfield services (-3.11%), and carbon black (-2.99%) [4]. Price Trends - The price increases for the week included methyl acrylate (4.73%), nitric acid (4.32%), caustic soda (3.80%), butyl acrylate (2.46%), and formaldehyde (2.25%). The largest price declines were seen in hydrochloric acid (-26.67%), vitamin E (-4.62%), TDI (-3.82%), butanone (-2.93%), and urea (-2.05%) [5]. Investment Recommendations - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on sectors with elasticity and advantages. The domestic policy environment frequently emphasizes supply-side requirements, while overseas chemical companies are experiencing shutdowns and capacity exits due to rising raw material costs and Asian capacity impacts [6]. - In the short term, geopolitical tensions may increase uncertainty in overseas chemical supply. However, China's chemical industry has a clear competitive advantage, with significant cost advantages and technological breakthroughs, positioning it to reshape the global chemical industry landscape [6]. - Recommended sectors include organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes, with key companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Dongcai Technology, Junzheng Group, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Runtu Co. [6]. - The food additives industry is expected to expand due to new consumption trends and regulatory support, with a focus on companies that emphasize technology and product differentiation, such as Bailong Chuangyuan and Jinhwa Industrial [7]. - The domestic self-sufficiency rate for new chemical materials is approximately 56%, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic substitution, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-end engineering plastics [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 建筑材料 上海地产优化政策出台，但仍需更多政策落地 2025 年 8 月 25 日至 8 月 29 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 2.02%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 3.21%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 2.52%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 4.90%，装修建材（SW）下跌 4.52%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-2.63%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-20.15 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周上海六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》， 包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住 房房产税等政策，按《通知》规定，沪籍居民家庭和沪籍成年单身人士， 在外环外购买住房不限套数；在外环内限购 2 套住房。非沪籍居民家庭和 非沪籍成年单身人士，自购房之日前在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得 税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数；自购房之日前在本市连 续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 1 套住房。 根据 wind 统计，2025 年 7 月地 ...

从资本市场看，涨幅前五名的化企分别为震安科技上涨53.11%、飞鹿股份上涨33.16%、奇德新材上涨 30.05%、宏和科技上涨23.25%、金煤B股上涨21.35%；跌幅前五名的化企分别为上纬新材下跌13.12%、 唯科科技下跌10.89%、新亚强下跌10.59%、中欣氟材下跌10.38%、九鼎新材下跌9.15%。 上周，国际原油价格偏强运行。截至8月22日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货(WTI)主力合 约结算价格为63.66美元/桶，较8月15日上涨1.37%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主力合约结算价 格为67.73美元/桶，较8月15日上涨2.85%。 从现货市场看，涨幅前五名的产品分别为维生素B1上涨12.82%、维生素D3上涨7.14%、百草枯上涨 6.56%、工业级碳酸锂上涨4.90%、丙烷上涨4.84%；跌幅前五名的产品分别为液氯下跌48.51%、盐酸下 跌8.29%、丁基橡胶下跌7.79%、丙烯酸甲酯下跌7.33%、丙烯酸丁酯下跌6.13%。 中化新网讯 上周(8月18日—22日)，化工指数与石油指数全线上扬。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计上涨3.29%、化工机械指数累计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.93% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.896 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.61% increase [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 11.131 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.72% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 50.359 billion yuan in 2025, 60.967 billion yuan in 2026, and 74.925 billion yuan in 2027 [15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.072 billion yuan in 2025, 6.009 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.504 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2X, 9.7X, and 7.1X [12][15]. - The company has invested in a new project with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, which includes a 2.5 million tons per year α-olefin light hydrocarbon supporting raw material facility [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Satellite Chemical, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in ethane prices, which may help restore profitability in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain and enhancing its facilities, with significant investments in high-value products [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.72% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 2.35 percentage points to 19.33%, and the net profit margin fell by 2.16 percentage points to 10.55% [8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.0%, 10.5%, 9.6%, and 23.0% for the years 2024 to 2027, respectively [4]. Price Target and Valuation - The target price for Satellite Chemical is set at 23.04 yuan, based on a relative valuation method using a 12x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]. - The current market price is 18.63 yuan, indicating potential upside [4]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the ethane supply is returning to normal, which may lead to a more favorable cost structure for the company [8]. - The company is also expected to benefit from the completion of its alpha-olefins project, which has a total investment of 26.6 billion yuan [8].

中原证券近日发布基础化工行业月报：2025年7月份中信基础化工行业指数上涨4.51%， 在30个中信一级行业中排名第13位。子行业中，改性塑料、聚氨酯和民爆用品行业表现居 前。主要产品中，7月份化工品价格下跌态势继续延续。2025年8月份的投资策略，建议继续 关注受益反内卷政策的农药、有机硅和涤纶长丝行业。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 产品价格跟踪:根据卓创资讯数据，2025年7月国际油价继续上涨，其中WTI原油上涨 6.37%，报收于69.26美元/桶，布伦特原油上涨7.28%，报收于72.53美元/桶。在卓创资讯跟 踪的319个产品中，103个品种上涨，上涨品种较上月有所下降，涨幅居前的分别为TDI、三 氯甲烷、炼焦煤、棕榈仁油、脂肪醇，涨幅分别为43.29%、32.79%、32.56%、25.78%和 22.37%。177个品种下跌，下跌品种环比提升。跌幅居前的分别是丙烯酸甲酯、丙烯酸丁 酯、苯胺、丙烯酸乙酯和MIBK，分别下跌了24.08%、10.61%、9.30%、9.22%和9.02%。总 体上看，基础化工产品价格下跌态势继续延续。 行业投资建议:维持行业"同步大市"的投资评级。随着化工行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "in line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [7][5]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry index rose by 4.51% in July 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 0.77 and 0.96 percentage points, respectively [10][7]. - The report suggests continued focus on the pesticide, organic silicon, and polyester filament sectors, which are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The basic chemical industry index has increased by 41.50% over the past year, ranking 14th among 30 major industries [10][7]. - In July 2025, 26 out of 33 sub-industries saw an increase, with modified plastics, polyurethane, and civil explosives leading the gains at 16.69%, 14.01%, and 12.09%, respectively [11][10]. Product Price Tracking - The report indicates a continued downward trend in chemical product prices, with 177 products showing a decrease in July 2025 [7][11]. - Notable price increases were observed in TDI, trichloromethane, and coking coal, with respective rises of 43.29%, 32.79%, and 32.56% [7][11]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights the launch of a three-year action plan by the China Pesticide Industry Association to combat issues like hidden additives and illegal production in the pesticide sector [29][30]. - A significant investment of 2.32 billion yuan by Shandong Haihua in Inner Mongolia's largest natural soda ash mine is noted, aimed at optimizing product structure and expanding development space [34][35].

投资分析意见：考虑油价中枢下行以及新材料项目推迟，我们下调2025 年盈利预测至62亿（原值为69 亿），维持2026-2027 年盈利预测77、94 亿，对应PE 估值为10X、8X、7X。我们继续看好公司C2 板块 的成长性与C3 板块的景气修复，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：项目进度不及预期，油价大幅波动，乙烷丙烷价格大幅上涨。 25Q2 油价下行导致C3 业绩有一定承压。受Q2 油价回落影响，C3 下游产品盈利也有所下降，产品价差 方面，我们计算25Q2 丙烷制丙烯、丙烯酸、丙烯酸丁酯价差分别为68美元/吨、2038 元/吨、2509 元/ 吨，环比分别-35 美元/吨、-357 元/吨、-718 元/吨，盈利有所收窄。此外，公司二季度对PDH 装置进行 常规检修，费用有所提升。展望未来，"反内卷"下丙烯景气存在较大修复空间，叠加下半年高分子乳 液、EAA、精丙烯酸等新产能放量，C3 盈利有望逐步提升。 中美贸易影响下，新材料项目进度有所放缓。根据规划，2025 年下半年公司预计将有4万吨EAA、16 万吨高分子乳液、15 万吨SAP、8 万吨新戊二醇和10 万 吨精丙烯酸产能逐步落地，带动业绩提升。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 showed a revenue of 11.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.7% [7] - The decline in Q2 performance is attributed to falling oil prices, which narrowed product price spreads, maintenance costs from PDH unit repairs, and a decrease in operating rates due to tariff impacts. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.56%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in C3 profitability in the second half of the year, driven by new production capacities in high polymer emulsions and other products [7] - The new materials project has faced delays due to US-China trade tensions, but the company expects to gradually increase production capacity in the second half of 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 6.2 billion yuan from the previous 6.9 billion yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 7.7 billion yuan and 9.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 52.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.6%. The net profit forecast is 6.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.4% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.9% [6]

近期，丙烯酸相关装置密集投产。7月21日，巴斯夫宣布其湛江一体化基地丙烯酸及酯区首批装置完成 机械竣工，标志着这一重大化工项目进入调试与启动阶段。而今年上半年，万华蓬莱40万吨/年丙烯酸 丁酯装置已经投产，巴斯夫湛江项目投产后将进一步加剧丙烯酸行业市场竞争。业内人士认为，丙烯酸 行业密集的投产行为或引发行业迈入技术溢价时代。 供应压力升级 产能加速释放，市场数据已显示出丙烯酸供需失衡的隐忧。 从产业链角度看，丙烯酸以丙烯为原料，其下游包括丙烯酸酯、超吸水性树脂(SAP)、丙烯酸酯橡胶、 高性能材料等领域。丙烯酸丁酯作为丙烯酸下游的核心配套产品，需求主要集中在涂料、胶黏剂、纺织 助剂等下游领域。 据买化塑研究院监测数据显示，2025年上半年，胶带母卷产量虽有所增加，对丙烯酸丁酯需求形成一定 支撑，但丙烯酸乳液需求却表现欠佳。尤其令人担忧的是出口市场，2025年上半年中国丙烯酸丁酯出口 量12.32万吨，较2024年减少13.42%。2025年上半年，丙烯酸丁酯市场均价为8711元/吨，较去年同期下 跌5.99%。 展望下半年，王琨认为丙烯酸市场供需博弈会持续。主力下游丙烯酸丁酯方面，开工率相对稳定，因其 主要下 ...