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现货延续上探,盘面仍是震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:07
丙烯日报 | 2025-08-28 策略 单边:中性;PDH丙烯供应预期收紧,下游补库积极,然涨价后下游利润承压,跟进或有限,继续关注装置动态。 跨期:无; 跨品种:无。 风险 韩国裂解装置去产能政策执行情况;原油价格波动;上游装置检修动态。 现货延续上探,盘面仍是震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面:丙烯主力合约收盘价6444元/吨(-23),丙烯华东现货价6500元/吨(+25),丙烯华北现货价6560元/吨(+90), 丙烯华东基差56元/吨(+48),丙烯华北基差116元/吨(+113)。丙烯开工率75%(+1%),中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR185美元/吨(-8),丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR95美元/吨(+1),进口利润-240元/吨(+36),厂内库存40320吨(+3470)。 丙烯下游方面:PP粉开工率40%(+1.29%),生产利润-190元/吨(-70);环氧丙烷开工率74%(+2%),生产利润-383 元/吨(-86);正丁醇开工率89%(+0%),生产利润141元/吨(-216);辛醇开工率92%(+6%),生产利润355元/吨 (-65);丙烯酸开工率70%(-5%),生产 ...
现货市场略有转暖,盘面延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:25
市场分析 丙烯日报 | 2025-08-27 现货市场略有转暖,盘面延续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面:丙烯主力合约收盘价6467元/吨(-24),丙烯华东现货价6475元/吨(+25),丙烯华北现货价6470元/吨(+15), 丙烯华东基差8元/吨(+49),丙烯华北基差3元/吨(+39)。丙烯开工率75%(+1%),中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR193 美元/吨(-1),丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR94美元/吨(-3),进口利润-276元/吨(-13),厂内库存40320吨(+3470)。 丙烯下游方面:PP粉开工率40%(+1.29%),生产利润-120元/吨(-65);环氧丙烷开工率74%(+2%),生产利润-383 元/吨(-86);正丁醇开工率89%(+0%),生产利润357元/吨(+21);辛醇开工率92%(+6%),生产利润420元/吨 (-10);丙烯酸开工率70%(-5%),生产利润428元/吨(-18);丙烯腈开工率73%(+1%),生产利润-595元/吨(-23); 酚酮开工率78%(+1%),生产利润-627元/吨(+0)。 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期,提振丙烯价格。韩国 ...
长鸿高科:技改项目落地叠加市场回暖,上半年营收同比增长16.25%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-27 08:39
二季度盈利明显修复,重点项目有序推进 据长鸿高科透露,今年上半年受整体宏观经济复苏较为缓慢、实体经济持续承压影响,公司经营业绩受 到冲击,利润水平同比出现较大幅度下滑。除宏观环境制约外,利润下滑主要源于子公司长鸿生物为提 升现有装置生产效率,于今年第一季度对PBT装置开展技术改造,较长时间的技改停工直接影响了当期 产量,加之去年同期基数较高,进一步加剧了本期同比数据的承压态势。 不过,随着经营环境改善,公司在第二季度迎来关键转折:一方面长鸿生物生产节奏逐步回稳,生产效 率显著提升;另一方面,二季度新材料市场呈现普遍回暖态势,汽车、电子等下游行业需求持续复苏, 直接带动特种合成树脂与高分子材料的市场需求增长。多重积极因素叠加下,公司第二季度归母净利润 成功实现环比扭亏为盈,盈利能力得到修复。 尽管阶段性利润有所下滑,上半年长鸿高科多个重点项目仍取得实质性进展。25万吨/年溶液丁苯橡胶 扩能改造项目二期及TPE黑色母粒技改项目已建成投产,新增产能正有序释放;长鸿生物扩能提质技改 项目按期完成,产品质量与产能利用率同步提升;黑色母粒项目产能已提升至11万吨/年;广东长鸿丙 烯酸产业园项目一期按计划推进,基础设施与主 ...
丙烯日报:下游需求跟进,丙烯维持偏强震荡-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:13
丙烯日报 | 2025-08-26 下游需求跟进,丙烯维持偏强震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面:丙烯主力合约收盘价6491元/吨(+21),丙烯华东现货价6450元/吨(+25),丙烯华北现货价6455元/吨 (-45),丙烯华东基差-41元/吨(+4),丙烯华北基差-36元/吨(-66)。丙烯开工率75%(+1%),中国丙烯CFR-日 本石脑油CFR193美元/吨(-3),丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR97美元/吨(+1),进口利润-263元/吨(+3),厂内库存40320 吨(+3470)。 丙烯下游方面:PP粉开工率40%(+1.29%),生产利润-55元/吨(+75);环氧丙烷开工率74%(+2%),生产利润-383 元/吨(-86);正丁醇开工率89%(+0%),生产利润336元/吨(+589);辛醇开工率92%(+6%),生产利润430元/ 吨(-18);丙烯酸开工率70%(-5%),生产利润446元/吨(-18);丙烯腈开工率73%(+1%),生产利润-572元/吨(+56); 酚酮开工率78%(+1%),生产利润-727元/吨(+0)。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期,提振丙烯价格 ...
卫星化学(002648):上半年业绩同比增长,新项目打开成长空间
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-25 09:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.93% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.896 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.61% increase [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 11.131 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.72% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 50.359 billion yuan in 2025, 60.967 billion yuan in 2026, and 74.925 billion yuan in 2027 [15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.072 billion yuan in 2025, 6.009 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.504 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2X, 9.7X, and 7.1X [12][15]. - The company has invested in a new project with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, which includes a 2.5 million tons per year α-olefin light hydrocarbon supporting raw material facility [12].
卫星化学(002648):1H25业绩稳健增长,看好α-烯烃综合利用项目建设
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-22 07:21
证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 22 日 卫星化学(002648.SZ) 公司 1H25 业绩稳健增长,看好α-烯烃综合利用项目建设 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 41,487 | 45,648 | 53,795 | 62,543 | 71,512 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 12.0 | 10.0 | 17.8 | 16.3 | 14.3 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 4,789 | 6,072 | 6,370 | 7,686 | 9,475 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 54.7 | 26.8 | 4.9 | 20.7 | 23.3 | | ROE(%) | 18.8 | 20.0 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 18.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄(元) | 1.42 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 2.28 | 2.81 | | P/E(倍) | 13.5 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 8.4 ...
丙烯日报:丙烯下游整体开工环比上升-20250822
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; supply-side device maintenance and restart changes frequently, combined with new device production capacity release, supply may still be relatively loose; downstream demand overall start-up recovery supports propylene prices in the short term [3] - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None 2. Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking has the expectation of capacity reduction, and the propylene futures price rebounds under the boost of macro sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total capacity, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of the total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2] - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the main PDH devices of Shandong Zhenhua and Jinneng are under maintenance, and the PDH devices of Tianhong and Xintai are restarted, and the PDH start-up rate decreases month-on-month; later, Wanhua Penglai PDH has the expectation of shutdown, and Jilin Petrochemical's new capacity is expected to be released, and the supply may still be relatively loose. Pay attention to the device maintenance situation after late August. The downstream start-up rate has rebounded overall except for acrylic acid. Among them, the start-up rate of octanol has rebounded significantly, the start-up rate of PP has increased slightly, and the start-up rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly. Later, the PP device of Jingbo and the acrylic acid device of Hongxin have the expectation of recovery. The short-term demand is supported, but the sustainability is questionable. Pay attention to the downstream stocking demand as the peak season approaches [2] - On the cost side, the crude oil price rebounds and fluctuates. Pay attention to macro trends such as geopolitical situations and the implementation of South Korea's cracking device capacity reduction policy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures include South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder start-up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start-up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]
韩国石化业去产能预期提振丙烯价格
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:42
丙烯日报 | 2025-08-21 韩国石化业去产能预期提振丙烯价格 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面:丙烯主力合约收盘价6446元/吨(+42),丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨(+0),丙烯华北现货价6390元/吨(-20), 丙烯华东基差-21元/吨(-42),丙烯华北基差-56元/吨(-62)。丙烯开工率75%(+1%),中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR201美元/吨(-4),丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR102美元/吨(+1),进口利润-228元/吨(-4),厂内库存36850吨(+2430)。 丙烯下游方面:PP粉开工率38%(+0.84%),生产利润-120元/吨(-10);环氧丙烷开工率73%(-1%),生产利润-747 元/吨(+33);正丁醇开工率88%(-1%),生产利润-204元/吨(+32);辛醇开工率87%(+10%),生产利润527元/ 吨(+14);丙烯酸开工率75%(-4%),生产利润463元/吨(+50);丙烯腈开工率72%(-2%),生产利润-510元/吨 (+42);酚酮开工率77%(+0%),生产利润-751元/吨(+0)。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期,宏观情 ...
供应宽松,丙烯偏弱震荡为主
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific ratings for inter - period and cross - variety [3] Core Viewpoints - Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to ample supply, insufficient downstream demand, and weak cost support. However, prices may be supported after late August due to potential supply - side maintenance and downstream demand restocking [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes charts of the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves charts of the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit of propylene, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [16][25][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - This part has charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section contains charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68]
丙烯日报:下游需求支撑有限,丙烯延续偏弱震荡-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Downstream demand support for propylene is limited, and propylene continues to fluctuate weakly. Shandong Zhenhua's main PDH unit and Xintai unit are under maintenance, briefly supporting a slight increase in Shandong spot prices. However, Wanhua's PO maintenance increases propylene supply in Yantai, and downstream resistance to high prices weakens the positive impact of maintenance, causing prices to fall from highs. In the future, Tianhong and Xintai's PDH units are expected to restart, and the new capacity of Jingbo's 280,000 - ton/year K - COT unit will be released, resulting in a relatively loose supply. Downstream start - up shows a mixed trend, with overall changes being small. Short - term demand support is limited, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand as the peak season approaches. The continuous weakening of crude oil on the cost side provides negative cost support [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [17][22][31] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures are about PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization [42][44][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69]