2025 年 10 月 12 日 行业研究 MOFs：诺奖加持，产业化加速前景可期 ——基础化工行业周报（20251006-20251010） 要点 2025 年诺贝尔化学奖授予在金属有机框架材料领域有杰出贡献的三位科学 家。2025 年 10 月 8 日，瑞典皇家科学院宣布将本年度诺贝尔化学奖授予在 金属有机框架材料（Metal-Organic Frameworks, MOFs）领域做出开创性 贡献的三位科学家：北川进（SusumuKitagawa，日本）、理查德·罗布森 （RichardRobson，英国）、奥马尔·M·亚吉（Omar M.Yaghi，约旦裔美 国籍。这三位科学家通过其奠基性的工作，成功设计并合成了这种由金属离 子与有机分子自组装而成的高度有序的多孔晶体材料，为材料科学开辟了一 个全新的分支，并为解决全球性的能源、环境和健康问题提供了前所未有的 工具。 MOFs 性能优异，产业化想象空间巨大。MOFs 是一种由金属中心（离子或 簇）和有机配体（也称链接体）通过配位键连接，自组装形成的具有周期性 网络结构的晶态多孔材料。金属节点通常是过渡金属离子，如铜、锌、铁、 钴等，它们可以形成单个离子节 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-10-10 丙烷跌价明显，成本端拖累丙烯走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 单边：中性； 跨期：PL01-02逢高反套； 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动；上游装置检修动态；外盘丙烷价格波动 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6210元/吨（-110），丙烯华东现货价6290元/吨（-10），丙烯华北现货价6495元/吨 （+90），丙烯华东基差80元/吨（+100），丙烯华北基差285元/吨（+200）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR201美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR147美元/吨（+60），进口利润-381元/吨（-25），厂内库存 44910吨（+2000）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率39%（+2.01%），生产利润-210元/吨（-175）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润 -344元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润-289元/吨（-206）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润-98 元/吨（-14）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1034元/吨（+107）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-82 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-30 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6365元/吨（+0），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（-25），丙烯华北现货价6435元/吨（-15）， 丙烯华东基差-40元/吨（-25），丙烯华北基差70元/吨（-40）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR182美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（-10），进口利润-388元/吨（+61），厂内库存42910吨（+6560）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率35%（+1.46%），生产利润-65元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润-2元/吨（+9）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润-5元/吨（+61）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润909元/吨（+18）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-642元/吨（-17）；酚 酮开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-520元/吨（-200）。 市场分析 上游装置重启预期以及下游需求跟进不足，驱动近期丙烯现货偏弱运行，盘面亦低位震荡。供需基本面看，供应 端， ...

2025 年 09 月 28 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 仲逸涵 S0350525070003 | | | zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026 年）》，涤纶长丝行业去库 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 《工作方案》提出，2025－2026 年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长 5% 以上，经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创新能力显著增强，精细化延伸、 数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高，减污降碳协同增效明显，化工园区 由规范建设向高质量发展迈进。聚焦石化化工行业发展面临的新形势、 新挑战，《工作方案》围绕强创新、提效益、拓需求、优载体、促合作 等 5 方面部署 10 项重点任务。一是强化产业科技创新，提升有效供给能 力。 ...

丙烯周报 | 2025-09-28 主力PDH装置逐步回归，丙烯偏弱运行 市场要闻与重要数据 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6365元/吨（-7），丙烯华东现货价6350元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6450元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差-15元/吨（+27），丙烯华北基差110元/吨（-3）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR182美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（-10），进口利润-388元/吨（+61），厂内库存42910吨（+6560）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率36%（+1.91%），生产利润-115元/吨（+10）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润24元/吨（+7）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润16元/吨（-43）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润892元/吨（-14）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-625元/吨（-11）；酚酮 开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-320元/吨 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-26 丙烯供应回升，但下游备货需求仍欠佳 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6372元/吨（+15），丙烯华东现货价6330元/吨（-20），丙烯华北现货价6485元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差-42元/吨（-35），丙烯华北基差113元/吨（-15）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR189美元/吨（-9），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR91美元/吨（-2），进口利润-409元/吨（-1），厂内库存36350吨（+4640）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率36%（+1.91%），生产利润-125元/吨（+0）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润17元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润59元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润906元/吨（+39）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-624元/吨（+0）；酚酮 开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-320元/吨（-124）。 市场分析 供应端，上游装置重启带动开工上升，山东两套主力PDH装 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for cross - period, after maintenance returns, focus on PL01 - 02 short - spread trading opportunities at high levels; no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of propylene remains relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and the increase in new production capacity. The demand is supported at the bottom in the short term but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost side has support due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of international oil prices and external propane prices [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][8][10] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB, Japan's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][38] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [41][43][46][55][57][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the short - spread of PL01 - 02 when it rises to a high level; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure remains large due to the restart of upstream devices and the expected restart of major PDH devices, as well as the increased production of new capacities. The demand is mainly driven by short - term bottom support from pre - holiday stocking by downstream factories, but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has weakened as international oil prices have rebounded slightly but remain weak, and the price of external propane is relatively firm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][22][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [39][41][44][52][55][57][59] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to boost commodity prices, which may enhance the market sentiment for bulk chemicals [3]. - The basic chemical index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points, with a decline of 1.33% over the past week [1][13]. - Key sub-industries showing positive performance include food and feed additives (2.99%), civil explosives (2.96%), and rubber additives (2.41%) [1][14]. Market Trends - The basic chemical index decreased by 1.33% from September 13 to September 19, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44% [1][13]. - The top-performing sub-industries during this period were food and feed additives, civil explosives, rubber additives, spandex, and adhesives [1][14]. Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were liquid chlorine (40.00%), acrylic acid (4.17%), aniline (3.30%), acetic acid (3.17%), and washing oil (2.86%) [2][21]. - Conversely, the products with the largest price declines included hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (-100.00%), domestic vitamin E (-8.77%), and epoxy chloropropane (-5.32%) [2][21]. Industry Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that the current economic activity in the U.S. is slowing down, with employment growth also decelerating [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: refrigerants, chemical fibers, tire manufacturing, agricultural chemicals, and high-quality growth stocks [8][43]. - Specific companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., and Wanhu Chemical among others [8][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in chloromethane and isooctyl acrylate, suggesting a focus on new materials with substantial market potential [1]. - It recommends attention to Jiangshan Co., which is expected to benefit from rising glyphosate prices and has promising developments in innovative drugs [5]. - The DVA market is noted for its vast potential, with Daon Co. making key advancements in DVA products [5]. Industry Performance - In the third week of September, the chemical sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.33%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 1.31% [2][13]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector stands at 22.54 times, above the average PE of 12.20 times since 2015 [2][13]. Sub-industry Trends - Among the 31 sub-industries, 8 experienced gains while 23 saw declines. The top five gaining sub-industries included civil explosives (+7.72%) and modified plastics (+7.67%), while the top five declining sub-industries included carbon black (-5.25%) and other chemical raw materials (-4.74%) [3][17]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+22.93%), monochloromethane (+19.44%), and isooctyl acrylate (+7.47%) [4][22]. - The report also details the top five products with the largest price spread increases, including aniline spread (+17.56%) and ethylene spread (+13.17%) [4][34]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with ethylene glycol increasing by 25.67% and polyester chips by 11.98%, while epoxy propane saw a decrease of 10.44% [5][52].