内容概况：随着制造业转型升级与新能源产业的快速发展，中厚宽钢带行业正迎来结构性增长机遇。制 造业设备更新政策持续落地，叠加新能源汽车、高端装备等领域对高强钢、耐腐蚀钢的增量需求，推动 中厚宽钢带应用场景向高端化延伸。同时，风电塔筒、光伏支架等新能源基建项目加速落地，进一步拓 宽了市场需求边界。2025年上半年，中国中厚宽钢带产量为1.14亿吨，同比增长4.47%。 相关上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）、鞍钢股份（000898）、河钢股份（000709）、华菱钢铁 （000932）、首钢股份（000959）、沙钢股份（002075）、方大特钢（600507）、马钢股份 （600808）、包钢股份（600010）、柳钢股份（601003） 相关企业：中国神华能源股份有限公司、晋能控股集团有限公司、山东能源集团有限公司、中国中煤能 源集团有限公司、陕西煤业化工集团有限责任公司、宝钢资源有限公司、国家能源投资集团有限责任公 司、中国华能集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司、中国大唐集团有限公司、中国华电集团有限 公司、中国建筑集团有限公司、中国中铁股份有限公司、中国铁道建筑集团有限公司、中国交通建设股 份有限公司 ...

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Since April, steel prices have been operating at low levels, with a focus on fundamental logic as the "tariff war" with the U.S. eases, but prices remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [1] - The steel price outlook is expected to be neutral to slightly bearish in the short to medium term, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, but its support for construction steel prices is limited, with national real estate development investment in the first quarter at approximately 1.99 trillion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [2] - New housing starts and completions have seen significant declines, with new starts down 24.4% and completions down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices from the construction sector [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In March, China exported 10.46 million tons of steel, with cumulative exports from January to March at 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while imports decreased by 11.3% [4] - The price advantage of Chinese steel and declining overseas crude steel production are contributing to continued export growth, although future exports may face pressure from rising international trade protectionism [4] Group 4: Production and Profitability - In March, China's crude steel production reached 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a high operating rate of 84.33% among steel mills, indicating strong production activity despite low prices [5] - Steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, which reduces the likelihood of voluntary production cuts, although some mills in Xinjiang have announced production reductions [5][6] Group 5: Product-Specific Trends - In March, rebar production was 18.61 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year, while the production of medium and heavy wide steel plates increased by 8.5% [7] - The production adjustments between rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to become more flexible in the coming months, influenced by export conditions [7]

Export Situation - In February, China's steel exports totaled 8.036 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%, with an average export price of $678.3 per ton, down 8.9% month-on-month [1] - The main exported steel products in February included coated sheets, medium-thick wide steel strips, hot-rolled thin wide steel strips, wire rods, and coated plates, accounting for 63% of total steel exports [2] - Among 22 major steel categories, 17 experienced a month-on-month decline in export volume, with significant drops exceeding 20% for several categories [3] Import Situation - In February, China imported 550,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.2%, with an average import price of $1,587.4 per ton, down 6.3% month-on-month [1] - The import volume of large section steel, rebar, hot-rolled narrow steel strips, and coated sheets saw significant reductions, while the import of steel billets increased substantially [5] - The overall structure of steel imports remained stable, but the scale continued to decrease, with notable declines in imports from major countries [7] Price Trends - The average import prices for most steel varieties showed a significant month-on-month decline, while some categories like medium and small section steel, bars, and wire rods experienced slight price increases [6] - The average export price for steel decreased significantly, with a notable drop in the export price of steel billets [8] Future Outlook - The total steel export volume increased year-on-year in January-February, but the total export value decreased, indicating a downward trend in export prices [8] - The steel export situation is expected to remain challenging, with poor order intake reported by major steel exporters after the Spring Festival [8] - Trade remedy investigations initiated against China by foreign countries could significantly impact steel exports, necessitating proactive responses from companies [8]

"坚持从供需两侧发力，标本兼治化解重点产业结构性矛盾等问题，促进产业健康 发展和提质升级。要优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组，推动落后低效 产能退出，增加高端产能供给。要优化市场监管，加强行业自律，共同维护公平竞 争、优胜劣汰的市场秩序。" 3月1日习近平总书记《求是》杂志发表文章《经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系》指出， "内卷式"竞争是市场资源配置功能受限的结果，破局要从"有效市场"和"有为政府"两个 维度着手。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期政策层面密集释放积极供给侧改革的信号。 2月10日国常会提出， "要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续深化供给侧结构性改革"。 3月6日五部委记者会国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示， "将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大 中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化"。 值得注意的是，近期政策表态对于供给侧问题的表述是 "重点产业结构矛盾"，而非"产能过剩"。 事实上，我国多数行业面临的结构性问题是低端产能过剩、高端产能不足。尤其是对于需求仍处于上行 周期的新兴产业来说，是否存在整体的"产能过剩"，还是个问号。 因此，本轮 ...