Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's medium and heavy wide steel plate production, with a reported output of 18.41 million tons in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of medium and heavy wide steel plates in China reached 132.435 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 4.4% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a robust market outlook for the steel industry in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the medium and heavy wide steel plate sector include Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Ansteel Co., Ltd. (000898), Shougang Co., Ltd. (000959), and others [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has released a market research report titled "2025-2031 China Medium and Heavy Wide Steel Plate Industry Market Research Analysis and Industry Demand Assessment Report," which provides insights into industry trends and forecasts [1] - The article emphasizes Zhiyan Consulting's expertise in providing comprehensive industry research reports and tailored consulting services to support investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a slight decline in China's medium and thick wide steel plate production in May 2025, while showing an overall increase in production for the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - In May 2025, China's medium and thick wide steel plate production reached 18.87 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [1] - Cumulative production from January to May 2025 was 94.694 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 4.8% compared to the same period in the previous year [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the production of medium and thick wide steel strips in China, with a reported production of 19.32 million tons in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative production of medium and thick wide steel strips reached 114.01 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 4.3% [1] - The article references several listed companies in the steel industry, including Baosteel Co., Ltd. and Ansteel Co., Ltd., indicating their relevance to the market analysis [1] Group 2 - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, emphasizing the credibility of the information presented [3]

Industry Overview - The medium and thick wide steel strip industry is experiencing structural growth opportunities due to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the rapid development of the new energy sector [1][8] - The production of medium and thick wide steel strips in China reached 114 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.47% [1][8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the medium and thick wide steel strip industry includes raw materials such as iron ore, coal, scrap steel, and electricity, as well as production equipment like blast furnaces and rolling mills [4] - The downstream applications encompass construction, machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, energy equipment, bridges, and the automotive industry [4] Market Dynamics - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase, with major producers like Rio Tinto and BHP expanding capacity, leading to a projected global output of 2.45 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [6] - The price of iron ore futures in China fell to 715.5 yuan per ton by the end of June 2025, a decrease of 13.27% year-on-year, which significantly reduced production costs for medium and thick wide steel strips [6] Key Enterprises - The medium and thick wide steel strip industry has a relatively high market concentration, with a few large enterprises dominating the market, such as Baosteel Group and Ansteel [12] - Baosteel is recognized for its advanced production technology and equipment, while Ansteel has a strong market share in various sectors including construction and machinery [12][14] Development Trends - The industry is shifting towards high-end and intelligent transformation, with a focus on high-strength and corrosion-resistant steel [18] - The green and low-carbon development trend is becoming mainstream, with expectations of a 15% reduction in carbon emission intensity through the adoption of hydrogen metallurgy and short-process steelmaking technologies [19] - The application of medium and thick wide steel strips in new infrastructure projects, such as rail transit and new energy vehicles, is expected to expand significantly [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing negative feedback expectations first and are in a low-level oscillation state [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); trading volume was 1,333,951 lots, and positions increased by 41,409 lots to 2,441,388 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%); trading volume was 452,531 lots, and positions increased by 23,289 lots to 1,537,114 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 30 yuan, 10 yuan, 10 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan, while those in Hangzhou and Tianjin remained unchanged, and in Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 14 yuan to 136 yuan, and that of HC2510 decreased by 9 yuan to 80 yuan. The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 increased by 4 to -14, and HC2510 - HC2601 decreased by 1 to -1. The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 5 to 136, and HC2601 - RB2601 increased by 10 to 132. The spot coil - rebar spread increased by 11 to -13 [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Weekly Data on May 29**: Rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 1.55 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 13.87 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons [4]. - **April Export Data**: In April 2025, China exported 1046.2 million tons of steel, basically the same as the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 3789.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, the export of primary products was 78.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.7%. From January to April, the cumulative export of primary products was 355.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 times. The main export varieties accounted for 52.9% of the total steel exports, and the main export regions were Southeast Asia and the Middle East [5]. - **Global and Domestic Production Data**: In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of crude steel (average daily output decreased by 0.3%), 19.82 million tons of pig iron (average daily output decreased by 0.4%), and 21.24 million tons of steel (average daily output increased by 1.9%) [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral state [5].

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Since April, steel prices have been operating at low levels, with a focus on fundamental logic as the "tariff war" with the U.S. eases, but prices remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [1] - The steel price outlook is expected to be neutral to slightly bearish in the short to medium term, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, but its support for construction steel prices is limited, with national real estate development investment in the first quarter at approximately 1.99 trillion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [2] - New housing starts and completions have seen significant declines, with new starts down 24.4% and completions down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices from the construction sector [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In March, China exported 10.46 million tons of steel, with cumulative exports from January to March at 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while imports decreased by 11.3% [4] - The price advantage of Chinese steel and declining overseas crude steel production are contributing to continued export growth, although future exports may face pressure from rising international trade protectionism [4] Group 4: Production and Profitability - In March, China's crude steel production reached 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a high operating rate of 84.33% among steel mills, indicating strong production activity despite low prices [5] - Steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, which reduces the likelihood of voluntary production cuts, although some mills in Xinjiang have announced production reductions [5][6] Group 5: Product-Specific Trends - In March, rebar production was 18.61 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year, while the production of medium and heavy wide steel plates increased by 8.5% [7] - The production adjustments between rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to become more flexible in the coming months, influenced by export conditions [7]

Export Situation - In February, China's steel exports totaled 8.036 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%, with an average export price of $678.3 per ton, down 8.9% month-on-month [1] - The main exported steel products in February included coated sheets, medium-thick wide steel strips, hot-rolled thin wide steel strips, wire rods, and coated plates, accounting for 63% of total steel exports [2] - Among 22 major steel categories, 17 experienced a month-on-month decline in export volume, with significant drops exceeding 20% for several categories [3] Import Situation - In February, China imported 550,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.2%, with an average import price of $1,587.4 per ton, down 6.3% month-on-month [1] - The import volume of large section steel, rebar, hot-rolled narrow steel strips, and coated sheets saw significant reductions, while the import of steel billets increased substantially [5] - The overall structure of steel imports remained stable, but the scale continued to decrease, with notable declines in imports from major countries [7] Price Trends - The average import prices for most steel varieties showed a significant month-on-month decline, while some categories like medium and small section steel, bars, and wire rods experienced slight price increases [6] - The average export price for steel decreased significantly, with a notable drop in the export price of steel billets [8] Future Outlook - The total steel export volume increased year-on-year in January-February, but the total export value decreased, indicating a downward trend in export prices [8] - The steel export situation is expected to remain challenging, with poor order intake reported by major steel exporters after the Spring Festival [8] - Trade remedy investigations initiated against China by foreign countries could significantly impact steel exports, necessitating proactive responses from companies [8]

"坚持从供需两侧发力，标本兼治化解重点产业结构性矛盾等问题，促进产业健康 发展和提质升级。要优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组，推动落后低效 产能退出，增加高端产能供给。要优化市场监管，加强行业自律，共同维护公平竞 争、优胜劣汰的市场秩序。" 3月1日习近平总书记《求是》杂志发表文章《经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系》指出， "内卷式"竞争是市场资源配置功能受限的结果，破局要从"有效市场"和"有为政府"两个 维度着手。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期政策层面密集释放积极供给侧改革的信号。 2月10日国常会提出， "要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续深化供给侧结构性改革"。 3月6日五部委记者会国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示， "将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大 中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化"。 值得注意的是，近期政策表态对于供给侧问题的表述是 "重点产业结构矛盾"，而非"产能过剩"。 事实上，我国多数行业面临的结构性问题是低端产能过剩、高端产能不足。尤其是对于需求仍处于上行 周期的新兴产业来说，是否存在整体的"产能过剩"，还是个问号。 因此，本轮 ...