展望后市，经历了规模化提速、超额利润阶段后，行业迎来高质量发展阶段，盈利周期延长、波动减弱 或是当前阶段的主要特征，行业整体进入效率驱动盈利的良性发展轨道。 据发改委，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至6∶1以下，进入三级预警区间。为促进生猪市场平稳运行，近期 国家发改委将会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉储备收储。华储网公告称，8月25日中央储备冻猪肉收储1万 吨。 具体到 A 股市场，光大证券认为，重视生猪养殖行业"反内卷"进程，行业产能有望进入稳健高质量发 展的阶段，成本的不断优化以及产业整合兼并仍能为企业带来盈利增长，具备成本优势的养殖主体有望 实现长期盈利。 光大证券分析，此次猪粮比价进入三级预警区间，主要因供应与需求两端失衡。 来源：金融界 短期来看，中央冻猪肉储备收储 1 万吨，虽从体量上看相对有限，但能在一定程度上缓解生猪供给压 力，对市场情绪有积极引导作用。 "反内卷"驱动下，生猪产能调控政策持续出台。今年二季度以来，国家发改委等部门针对生猪行业持续 低迷及市场波动问题，出台了系列产能调控政策，核心内容聚焦于能繁母猪存栏量压减（将全国能繁母 猪存栏量再调减100万头左右）和二次育肥行为规范（杜绝生猪流入二次育 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase while demand enters a seasonal off - peak, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term trend is likely to be weak, with attention needed on the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies [9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 13,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,715 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,760 yuan/ton, a 0.47% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,240 lots to 160,443 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the national average price of三元hogs was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsty increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On June 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 146,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,900 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Enterprises were reducing weights and slaughtering normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] - **Policy Side**: On June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10][12] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [18] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [18] - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [18] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pork futures market shows a slight increase in prices due to government reserve policies, although the long-term supply-demand situation remains loose [1] Supply Side - The planned slaughter volume for June is 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from May's actual slaughter [1] - The number of breeding sows in sample farms is 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% increase month-on-month and an 8.57% increase year-on-year [1] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in the week ending June 13 is 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week [1] Demand Side - The average price of external three-yuan pigs is 14.23 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The utilization rate of fattening pens is 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The demand from slaughter enterprises remains weak, with a general order volume and low operating rates [1] Policy Impact - On June 11, the central government conducted a reserve auction for 10,000 tons of frozen pork, with transaction prices ranging from 20.3 to 20.8 yuan/kg [1] - The reserve policy is expected to stabilize pork prices and boost market confidence in the short term [1] - The futures contracts are currently trading at a discount to the spot market, indicating a short-term rebound due to the reserve policy, but long-term demand remains weak [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply continues to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [7]. - Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot. The current price increase is seen as a rebound, and in the medium to long term, it is affected by the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - fattening sales. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future reserve policies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 pig futures contract opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,217 lots to 166,443 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Policy**: On June 9, Huachu Network announced the notice of the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on June 11, 2025, with a purchase and storage volume of 10,000 tons. The final transaction price of No. 2 - 4 meat on the 11th was 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the pen utilization rate is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased. With rising temperatures, terminal demand has weakened, and slaughterhouse orders have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143,900 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 900 heads from a week ago [7]. - **Supply**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter weight remained high as farmers slaughtered normally and those who previously engaged in second - fattening actively sold their pigs due to the inverted price difference [7]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - In May, the average market sales price of 15KG piglets was 627 yuan/head, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [11]. - In May, the average national slaughter weight was 129.5 kg, a 0.6 kg increase from April, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [11]. - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, it was 2.5%, a 3.7 percentage - point month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the price of pig compound feed was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month and a 2% year - on - year increase [11]. - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg and a 4.38% decrease compared to 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg and a 5.9% decrease compared to 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [11].

Group 1 - The current supply-demand situation in the pig market shows a high enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding end, while demand remains weak, prompting the government to initiate pork reserve storage [1][2] - The National Pork Reserve policy serves as an important tool in stabilizing supply and prices in the pig industry, with the recent storage action being the first significant one this year [1][2] - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of June 10 was 14.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.8 yuan/kg since the May Day holiday, indicating a weak price trend due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] Group 2 - The government initiated temporary pork reserve storage due to continuous declines in pig prices and shrinking breeding profits, with the pig-to-grain ratio indicating a need for intervention [2][4] - The current breeding profit per pig is estimated at 80.10 yuan, a significant drop from over 400 yuan in the same period last year, highlighting the financial pressure on large pig enterprises and the impact on small breeders [4][5] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been implemented to support small breeders, with 17 projects launched this year, safeguarding 250,000 pigs against market price fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Farming Index showing a strong increase, driven by key stocks like Muyuan Foods and others, despite ongoing challenges in the market due to fluctuating pig prices and inventory pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) rose by 1.06%, with major stocks such as Shennong Group increasing by 6.69% and Muyuan Foods by 4.08% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) also saw a rise of 1.08%, closing at 0.65 yuan, with a two-week cumulative increase of 2.54% [1]. - The trading volume for the Livestock ETF was 215.17 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.64% [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - Muyuan Foods reported a significant increase in pig output from January to April, with production costs improving to 12.4 yuan per kilogram by April [2]. - The company has submitted an application for H-share issuance, which may enhance its global market presence [2]. - Despite a downward trend in pig prices, the industry remains profitable, supported by Muyuan's cost advantages and improved profit margins [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which has a current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 12.89, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 68.9% of its total weight, with companies like Haida Group and Muyuan Foods being significant contributors [4]. Group 4: Stock Performance Overview - The performance of the top ten stocks in the Livestock ETF shows varied results, with Haida Group declining by 2.09% while Muyuan Foods increased by 4.09% [6]. - Other notable performers include Wens Foodstuff Group, which rose by 3.05%, and New Hope, which increased by 1.57% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Huashu Network regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction indicates a planned auction of 10,000 tons on June 11, 2025, which reflects the government's strategy to manage pork supply and stabilize prices in the market [1] Group 1 - The central reserve frozen pork storage auction is scheduled for June 11, 2025 [1] - The auction will involve a total of 10,000 tons of frozen pork [1]