Core Insights - The top three real estate companies in Shenzhen for the first seven months of 2025 are Hongrongyuan, China Merchants Shekou, and Shenye Group, with sales of 14.26 billion, 8.92 billion, and 5.90 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The sales thresholds for the top 5, top 10, and top 20 companies are 5.81 billion, 4.31 billion, and 2.77 billion yuan respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][6] Market Performance - New home transactions have decreased, with approximately 2,660 new residential units sold in July 2025, down 18% from the previous month and 22% year-on-year [6][8] - The second-hand housing market has shown signs of recovery, with 4,656 transactions in July, remaining stable compared to the previous month [6][8] Inventory and Sales Cycle - As of the end of July, the inventory of new residential units in Shenzhen was 27,902, an increase of 2,241 units from June, resulting in an average sales cycle of approximately 8.4 months [8][10] Project Performance - There is significant differentiation among projects, with high-quality and competitively priced developments continuing to sell well. Notable projects include Zhongjian Pengchen Yunzhu, Jiayu Jiuxi, and Zhongzhou Yingxi [10][12] Land Market Activity - The land market is highly competitive, with a new record for land price set by China Merchants Shekou at 2.155 billion yuan for a residential plot in the Qianhai area, reflecting strong confidence in Shenzhen's core real estate market [12][13]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau announced the planned pre-sale of commercial housing for the third quarter of 2025, with 33 projects expected to enter the market, totaling a supply area of 1.3512 million square meters and 12,351 units [1] - Compared to the same period last year, there is a significant decline in commercial housing supply, with a drop of over 25% in both the number of projects and residential units [2] - The reduction in inventory is reflected in transaction data, with a year-on-year increase in pre-sale residential transactions, indicating a potential market recovery [3] Supply Overview - In Q3 2025, 33 commercial housing projects are set to be launched, with residential projects making up the majority at 31 projects, covering an area of 1.08 million square meters and 10,673 units [1] - The supply breakdown includes 2.51 million square meters of serviced apartments (129 units), 6.93 million square meters of commercial space (710 units), and 17.7 million square meters of office space (839 units) [1] - The main supply areas include Bao'an with 7 projects (3,364 residential units) and Guangming with 5 projects (1,702 residential units) [1] Year-on-Year Comparison - In Q3 2024, there were 44 projects with a total supply area of 2.0246 million square meters and 18,150 units, indicating a significant decrease in supply for Q3 2025 [2] - The residential supply area in Q3 2024 was 1.4912 million square meters with 14,955 units, showing a decline in both metrics in 2025 [2] - The downward trend in supply began earlier in 2025, with a notable reduction in the first half of the year [2] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the number of new residential units supplied was 13,877, down 28.6% year-on-year, with a supply area of 1.398 million square meters, reflecting a five-year low [2] - The average transaction price for new residential properties has decreased, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year, indicating price stabilization [3] - The reduction in interest rates, with a 45 basis point drop in both 1-year and 5-year LPR, has led to increased promotional efforts by developers, making home purchases more affordable [3] Future Outlook - The current market conditions present a favorable window for potential homebuyers due to policy easing and lower costs [3] - There is an expectation for further policy measures to stimulate market demand, alongside improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions [3]