Group 1 - The traditional sales peak season "Golden September and Silver October" has arrived, with developers actively preparing for new project launches and sales events [1][4] - In Shanghai, the first batch of pre-sale permits in September has a total supply area of 139,000 square meters and a total value of approximately 8.31 billion yuan, covering multiple hot areas [1][6] - In Beijing, the new housing policy has led to a noticeable increase in sales, particularly among clients who were previously hesitant, with some projects seeing sales volumes double [2][4] Group 2 - In Chengdu, over 1,500 new homes are expected to enter the market in September, with several notable projects being launched [7][8] - The luxury market in Shanghai remains strong, with the highest recorded new home price reaching 326,800 yuan per square meter [4][6] - In Shenzhen, the relaxation of purchase restrictions has significantly increased both the number of property viewings and sales, with a reported 30% increase in viewings and a 60% increase in sales volume following the new policy [9][10]

Core Insights - The traditional sales peak season "Golden September and Silver October" has arrived, with developers actively preparing for increased sales opportunities [2][5][12] - New housing policies have positively impacted market sentiment, leading to increased buyer interest and sales in various cities [4][6][12] Group 1: Market Activity - In Shanghai, the first batch of pre-sale permits in September totaled 139,000 square meters with a total value of approximately 8.31 billion yuan, covering multiple hot districts [2][9] - In Beijing, new housing policy implementation has resulted in a three-week consecutive increase in new home registrations, indicating a positive market response [4][5] - In Shenzhen, the first weekend after the new policy saw a 48% increase in property visits and a 60% increase in sales volume [12] Group 2: Developer Strategies - Developers are leveraging the "Golden September and Silver October" period to launch promotional campaigns, such as Vanke's "2025 Golden Autumn Quality Housing Festival" [11] - In Shanghai, the housing authority's direct promotion of new projects has led to increased buyer engagement, particularly in areas outside the city center [6][9] - In Beijing, developers are focusing on projects located in the outer ring, where the new policies have opened up opportunities for previously hesitant buyers [5][12] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Chengdu is expecting over 1,500 new homes to enter the market in September, with several notable projects set to launch [10][11] - In Shenzhen, the easing of purchase restrictions has allowed previously excluded buyers to enter the market, significantly boosting both viewings and sales [12] - The luxury market in Shanghai remains robust, with the Jinling Huating project setting a new record for new home prices at 326,800 yuan per square meter [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's new real estate policy, implemented on September 5, aims to stimulate the housing market during the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" by relaxing purchase restrictions, easing corporate buying, and optimizing credit conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy includes four main adjustments to purchase restrictions: 1. Residents with Shenzhen household registration or proof of tax and social security payments for one year can now purchase in a reduced area [1]. 2. Non-residents can buy two homes in non-restricted areas without proof of tax and social security payments [1]. 3. In Yantian District and Dapeng New District, there are no purchase qualification checks [1]. 4. Single individuals are treated as families for purchasing, allowing an additional purchase [1]. - Credit optimization means that housing loan interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, allowing financial institutions to set rates based on market conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Response - The first weekend after the policy implementation saw a significant increase in both property viewings and sales, with some projects reporting a 30% increase in viewings and 16 units sold in one weekend [2][4]. - However, the initial surge in activity did not sustain into the following weekdays, indicating a potential short-term spike rather than a long-term trend [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing and Discounts - Many projects continue to offer discounts, with prices ranging from 86% to 93% of the listed price, indicating ongoing competitive pricing strategies [3][4]. - For example, a 92.54 square meter unit at a project was originally priced at approximately 5.03 million yuan but was discounted to about 4.68 million yuan, translating to around 50,600 yuan per square meter [3]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - The secondary housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing a "volume increase and price stability" trend, with a notable rise in viewings by about 12% following the new policy [5][6]. - The number of second-hand homes with price increases reached 163, while those with price reductions exceeded 1,000, indicating a mixed market response [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new policy is a supplement to last year's measures and aims to boost market confidence during the peak sales season, with expectations of increased transactions in September [6][7]. - However, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain, as developers are cautious and primarily focused on maintaining cash flow through sales rather than increasing prices [7].

Group 1 - The traditional sales peak season "Golden September and Silver October" has arrived, with developers gearing up for increased activity in the real estate market [3][12] - In Shanghai, the first batch of pre-sale permits in September covers a total supply area of 139,000 square meters, with a total value of approximately 8.31 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [3][10] - In Beijing, the new housing policy has led to a noticeable increase in the number of visits to properties, with some new projects experiencing a doubling in transaction volumes [5][6] Group 2 - In Chengdu, over 1,500 new homes are expected to enter the market in September, with several notable projects set to launch [4][12] - In Shenzhen, the recent policy changes have significantly boosted both the number of property viewings and transactions, with a reported increase of 30% in viewings and 60% in sales volume [13] - The luxury market in Shanghai remains robust, with the highest recorded new home price reaching 326,800 yuan per square meter, reflecting strong demand in high-end segments [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustment in Shenzhen's real estate market, known as the "9.5 New Policy," aims to stimulate sales during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" by implementing differentiated controls and lowering mortgage rates [1][2]. Policy Changes - The "9.5 New Policy" was implemented on September 6, 2023, allowing for differentiated control measures in core areas like Futian and Nanshan, while non-core areas such as Luohu and Guangming have seen the removal of purchase limits [1]. - The policy also eliminates the distinction between first and second home mortgage rates, with the lowest mortgage rate now at 3.05% [1]. Market Response - Following the policy announcement, there was a significant increase in both property viewings and transactions over the first weekend, with some projects reporting a 30% increase in viewings and 16 units sold in one project [2][6]. - The overall visitations to new housing projects increased by approximately 48%, and transaction volumes rose by about 60% during the first weekend after the policy was enacted [6]. Pricing Trends - Despite the policy changes, many properties are still offering discounts, with reductions ranging from 86% to 93% of the listed price [3][4]. - For example, a 92.54 square meter unit at the Jiayu Jiu Xi project originally priced at approximately 5.03 million yuan is now available for about 4.68 million yuan, translating to around 5.06 thousand yuan per square meter [3]. Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The number of second-hand properties with price increases reached 163 on the first day of the new policy, marking a recent high, although the total number of discounted second-hand properties remains above a thousand [7][10]. - The second-hand market is characterized by a "volume increase and price stability" trend, with properties priced significantly below market value selling quickly [10][11]. Expert Analysis - Analysts suggest that the new policy serves as a supplement to last year's "9.30 policy," aiming to boost market confidence during the peak sales season [11]. - The cautious approach of developers, focusing on maintaining prices or reducing them to drive sales, reflects a careful market assessment [11].

Core Insights - The top three real estate companies in Shenzhen for the first seven months of 2025 are Hongrongyuan, China Merchants Shekou, and Shenye Group, with sales of 14.26 billion, 8.92 billion, and 5.90 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The sales thresholds for the top 5, top 10, and top 20 companies are 5.81 billion, 4.31 billion, and 2.77 billion yuan respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][6] Market Performance - New home transactions have decreased, with approximately 2,660 new residential units sold in July 2025, down 18% from the previous month and 22% year-on-year [6][8] - The second-hand housing market has shown signs of recovery, with 4,656 transactions in July, remaining stable compared to the previous month [6][8] Inventory and Sales Cycle - As of the end of July, the inventory of new residential units in Shenzhen was 27,902, an increase of 2,241 units from June, resulting in an average sales cycle of approximately 8.4 months [8][10] Project Performance - There is significant differentiation among projects, with high-quality and competitively priced developments continuing to sell well. Notable projects include Zhongjian Pengchen Yunzhu, Jiayu Jiuxi, and Zhongzhou Yingxi [10][12] Land Market Activity - The land market is highly competitive, with a new record for land price set by China Merchants Shekou at 2.155 billion yuan for a residential plot in the Qianhai area, reflecting strong confidence in Shenzhen's core real estate market [12][13]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau announced the planned pre-sale of commercial housing for the third quarter of 2025, with 33 projects expected to enter the market, totaling a supply area of 1.3512 million square meters and 12,351 units [1] - Compared to the same period last year, there is a significant decline in commercial housing supply, with a drop of over 25% in both the number of projects and residential units [2] - The reduction in inventory is reflected in transaction data, with a year-on-year increase in pre-sale residential transactions, indicating a potential market recovery [3] Supply Overview - In Q3 2025, 33 commercial housing projects are set to be launched, with residential projects making up the majority at 31 projects, covering an area of 1.08 million square meters and 10,673 units [1] - The supply breakdown includes 2.51 million square meters of serviced apartments (129 units), 6.93 million square meters of commercial space (710 units), and 17.7 million square meters of office space (839 units) [1] - The main supply areas include Bao'an with 7 projects (3,364 residential units) and Guangming with 5 projects (1,702 residential units) [1] Year-on-Year Comparison - In Q3 2024, there were 44 projects with a total supply area of 2.0246 million square meters and 18,150 units, indicating a significant decrease in supply for Q3 2025 [2] - The residential supply area in Q3 2024 was 1.4912 million square meters with 14,955 units, showing a decline in both metrics in 2025 [2] - The downward trend in supply began earlier in 2025, with a notable reduction in the first half of the year [2] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the number of new residential units supplied was 13,877, down 28.6% year-on-year, with a supply area of 1.398 million square meters, reflecting a five-year low [2] - The average transaction price for new residential properties has decreased, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year, indicating price stabilization [3] - The reduction in interest rates, with a 45 basis point drop in both 1-year and 5-year LPR, has led to increased promotional efforts by developers, making home purchases more affordable [3] Future Outlook - The current market conditions present a favorable window for potential homebuyers due to policy easing and lower costs [3] - There is an expectation for further policy measures to stimulate market demand, alongside improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions [3]