洞察资源品超级周期的 投资密码——访中欧资源精选混合基金经理叶培培 市场始终处于动态演进中，在叶培培看来，投资框架与时俱进也非常重要。她认为，当前全球商品正处 于过去60年以来的第三轮超级周期，稀缺资源品价格维持高位的时间或将长于前两轮。为此，她在传统 PB-ROE框架的基础之上，融入新的考量因素。此外，行业的资本开支、供应链重构、战略收储等因素 都会影响到传统资源未来的供需平衡表 ◎记者 赵明超 "宏观因素涵盖人口、技术、政策等。其中，人口变化影响消费需求和劳动力供给，技术进步可推动产 业升级和新产品研发，政策导向可以决定产业的发展方向和速度。中观层面则聚焦库存情况、投资活 动、竞争格局等。具体来看，库存水平能反映市场的供需状况，投资活动引导产业的扩张及收缩，竞争 格局可以决定企业的市场份额和盈利能力。"叶培培说，在个股的选择上，则重点考察公司的激励机 制，以及在行业低谷期逆势布局、高峰期克制投资的逆向操作能力。 市场始终处于动态演进中，在叶培培看来，投资框架与时俱进也非常重要。她认为，当前全球商品正处 于过去60年以来的第三轮超级周期，稀缺资源品价格维持高位的时间或将长于前两轮。为此，她在传统 PB-RO ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a crowded trading sentiment, with a potential correction of 10% to 15% expected, similar to the market behavior observed from April to August this year. However, the long-term drivers for gold prices have not fundamentally changed, indicating a high ceiling for gold prices [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Short-term Market Dynamics - The gold market is currently characterized by an overheated trading sentiment, suggesting a potential correction of 10% to 15% [1] - This situation mirrors the market trends seen from April to August of this year [1] Long-term Price Drivers - The fundamental drivers for gold prices remain unchanged, with a high ceiling anticipated for gold prices [1] - The proportion of investable gold market capitalization relative to stock and bond portfolios is significantly lower than it was before the 1980s, indicating room for rebalancing towards dollar assets [1] Key Influencing Factors - The reversal of gold price drivers is closely tied to the weakening of the US dollar's credit [1] - Historical analysis over the past 60 years shows an inverse relationship between gold and US dollar credit [1] - If the US economy achieves a long-term strong recovery and fiscal balance, such as reducing the deficit rate below 4%, it could signal the end of a bull market for gold. Until then, the expectation is for gold to remain in a fluctuating upward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a potential 10-15% correction expected due to overheated trading sentiment, similar to the market behavior observed from April to August this year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The long-term drivers of gold prices have not fundamentally changed, indicating a high ceiling for gold prices [1] - The proportion of investable gold market capitalization relative to stock and bond portfolios is significantly lower than it was before the 1980s, suggesting room for rebalancing towards dollar assets [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The reversal of gold price driving factors is closely tied to the weakening of the US dollar's credit [1] - Historical analysis over the past 60 years shows an inverse relationship between gold and US dollar credit [1] - If the US economy achieves a long-term robust recovery and brings fiscal balance, such as reducing the deficit rate below 4%, the bull market for gold may come to an end [1] Group 3: Price Trend Outlook - Until a significant economic shift occurs, the outlook for gold prices remains within a fluctuating upward channel [1]