证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20251230 布局高息央企，静候红利风起——景顺长城 中证国新港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分 析 [Table_Summary] ◼ 长期价值：看好港股红利的底仓配置价值 1）配置视角：红利资产防御价值凸显。今年以来（截至 12 月 26 日，后 同），港股红利资产在市场波动中展现出极佳韧性，收益回撤比高达 2.4 倍。 2）政策视角：政策推动红利资产吸引力提升。2024 年至今，A 股上市公 司分红力度明显加大，政策支持为红利资产注入长期估值重塑动能。 3）资金视角：险资等长钱配置需求有望持续释放。险资为代表的中长期资 金基于负债端久期匹配与收益稳定的需求，将为红利资产带来长期稳定的 资金流入。 4）红利资产内部：港股>A 股：港股恒生高股息指数的股息率为 6.7%，经 税后的实际收益水平仍优于 A 股同类资产。央企>国企>民企：恒生中国央 企指数近 3 年股息率维持在 5%以上，股息吸引力高于国企、民企。 ◼ 中期机遇：明年下半年红利风格超额收益有望再起 ◼ 国新港股通央企红利价值投资分析 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 陈刚 1） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing attractiveness of Hong Kong dividend assets, particularly in the context of heightened market volatility, showcasing strong performance and long-term allocation value [1] - From a configuration perspective, Hong Kong dividend assets demonstrate remarkable resilience during market fluctuations, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index achieving a cumulative increase of 27.1% from the beginning of the year to September 18, despite a maximum drawdown of only 12.6%, significantly lower than that of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech [1] - Policy measures are enhancing the appeal of dividend assets, with increased dividend payouts from A-share listed companies and supportive government policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles," which emphasize constraints on companies with weak dividend intentions [1] Group 2 - The continuous release of medium to long-term capital allocation demand, particularly from insurance funds, is expected to bring stable inflows into dividend assets, with insurance capital accelerating its layout in the Hong Kong market, having made 20 stake acquisitions in 2024 [2] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong dividend assets is significantly higher than that of A-shares, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 6.14% compared to the CSI Dividend Index's 4.86%, indicating superior actual returns even after considering dividend taxes [2] - The Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF tracks the CSI Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index, which selects stable dividend-paying central state-owned enterprises, reflecting the overall performance of high dividend yield central enterprises within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2] Group 3 - Since 2020, the cumulative return of the Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF has reached 37.2%, outperforming core broad-based indices of A/H shares and similar products [3] - The ETF's constituent stocks are concentrated in resource-based industries, such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and transportation, with a lower proportion in financial and real estate sectors, highlighting its differentiated allocation value [3] - Overall, the Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF presents higher return potential and relatively low-risk characteristics, with a circulation scale reaching 4.92 billion yuan in recent months, indicating market recognition and interest [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong dividend assets, highlighting their resilience in market volatility and superior risk-return characteristics, with a return drawdown ratio of 2.2 times [1][10] - Policy support has significantly increased the attractiveness of dividend assets, with a notable increase in dividend payouts from A-share companies in 2024, enhancing the long-term valuation of these assets [1][18] - There is a sustained demand for long-term capital allocation from insurance funds, which are expected to continue flowing into dividend assets due to their stable returns and low volatility [1][23] Group 2 - The report focuses on the China Securities National Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, which selects high-dividend central enterprises from the Hong Kong Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3][36] - Since 2020, the National Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has achieved a cumulative return of 37.2%, outperforming major A/H indices and similar products [3][39] - The index is heavily weighted towards high-quality large-cap central enterprises in sectors such as energy and telecommunications, providing a distinct advantage over other indices [3][39] Group 3 - The Invesco Great Wall China Securities National Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF offers investors a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend sector, with a current circulation scale of 4.92 billion [4] - The ETF aims to closely track the underlying index, minimizing tracking deviation and error to achieve returns similar to the index [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong dividend stocks, highlighting their resilience amid market volatility and their role as a defensive asset class [1][14][20] - From a comparative perspective, Hong Kong dividend stocks offer a higher dividend yield than A-share counterparts, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 8.1% compared to the CSI Dividend Index's 5.8% [2][24][28] - The demand for long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is expected to continue supporting the allocation to dividend assets, providing a stable inflow of funds [3][33][34] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises focuses on high-dividend central enterprises, reflecting the performance of companies with stable dividend levels [4][39] - Since 2020, the cumulative return of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises has reached 35.0%, outperforming major A/H indices [5][40][41] - The index is heavily weighted in sectors such as energy and telecommunications, with a notably low exposure to financial and real estate sectors, allowing for differentiated investment strategies [6][46] Group 3 - The Invesco China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises ETF provides investors with a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend sector, aiming to closely track the underlying index [8]