Core Viewpoint - The recovery of prices is identified as the most critical logic supporting corporate profit improvement in 2026, which may also influence market styles [1]. Price Trends and Data Analysis - The first inflation data of the year validates the momentum of price improvement, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) reaching a year-on-year high not seen since August 2024 and a month-on-month high since October 2023 [1]. - The proportion of price-increasing subcategories in the comprehensive price database has risen to a relatively high level, indicating a strong correlation with the month-on-month PPI trends [1]. - Recent price increases are characterized by a broader range and richer clues, driven by international commodity price transmission, favorable policies, and trends in the technology industry [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The sectors with significant month-on-month PPI increases in January include non-ferrous metals, non-metallic mineral products (such as building materials), black metals, technology manufacturing, chemical fibers, and agricultural processing [4]. - The price increases in these sectors correspond with the high-frequency tracked price subcategories, indicating a robust link between input inflation and domestic price recovery [4]. Price Increase Clues - The proportion of subcategories with price increases over the past three months is at its second-highest level since 2016, only surpassed by the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the significant inflation period in 2021 [4]. - A detailed table shows various subcategories with significant price increases in January, such as oxygen pressure (62.5%), lithium concentrate (52.3%), and DRAM index (35.7%), indicating strong upward price trends across multiple sectors [6][7]. Future Outlook - The post-holiday period is seen as a critical window for validating price increases, with expectations for further price clues to emerge as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented after the March meetings [9]. - Historical data suggests that the first quarter is typically a key period for PPI acceleration during inflation cycles, indicating a potential for sustained price increases [9]. Sector Performance Expectations - The relative performance of sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), advanced manufacturing, and resource & infrastructure chains is expected to be strong post-Spring Festival, with higher win rates anticipated [10]. - A statistical analysis shows that industries with a positive correlation to PPI include chemicals, steel, building materials, transportation, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, among others [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market experienced increased volatility due to global risk asset fluctuations, a pullback in the global software industry, and controversies surrounding subsidies for tech giants [1] - Despite the volatility, the liquidity remains relatively abundant, with significant inflows from foreign and southbound investors driving strength in traditional sectors such as agriculture, food and beverage, and transportation [1] - Looking ahead, the peak earnings season for US tech stocks is nearing its end, and a decrease in precious metal volatility is anticipated, with potential catalysts in technology and consumer sectors around the Chinese New Year [1] Group 2 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, recommending holding stocks through the holiday period while focusing on semiconductor stocks, specialty consumer sectors with improving trends, real estate chains, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The mid-term allocation view remains unchanged, with a recommendation to accumulate resource stocks after stabilization and to overweight insurance and local Hong Kong stocks [1]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but includes detailed valuation metrics for various indices and sectors, indicating a mixed outlook based on historical percentiles [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant valuation metrics for various indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.5x and PB at 1.9x, indicating it is at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles respectively [2][5]. - The report identifies sectors with high PE and PB valuations, such as real estate, automation equipment, and electronics, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][7]. - The report tracks the mid-cycle economic conditions across various industries, noting price fluctuations in the photovoltaic and battery sectors, as well as trends in consumer electronics and financial services [2][3][6]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The CSI All Share PE is 22.5x, with a PB of 1.9x, positioned at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles [2][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 11.7x, PB is 1.3x, at the 61st and 41st percentiles [2][5]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, PB is 5.7x, at the 41st and 67th percentiles [2][5]. Industry Valuation - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include industrial metals and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - The white goods industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7]. Mid-Cycle Economic Tracking - In the new energy sector, the report notes a 9.2% decline in upstream polysilicon futures prices, while downstream battery prices increased by 3.4% [2][3]. - The semiconductor sector shows a 0.5% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, indicating positive momentum [3]. - The insurance sector reports a 7.4% year-on-year growth in premium income, although growth has slowed compared to previous months [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report details fluctuations in the steel and cement markets, with rebar prices down by 0.2% and cement prices down by 0.6% [3]. - In the consumer sector, pork prices have decreased by 5.2%, reflecting supply pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [3]. - The report also highlights a 50.9% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations, indicating strong growth in renewable energy [2][3].

Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a phase of oscillation and adjustment after an initial strong upward trend, with active trading but increased regulatory measures to temper speculation [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the market's future direction will depend on the strength of economic recovery and improvements in corporate earnings [1][4] - The current regulatory stance aims to prevent excessive market growth that could lead to bubble risks, promoting a high-quality "slow bull" market instead [1][2] Group 2 - Despite some technology stocks reaching historical high valuations, the overall valuation of A-shares remains at a neutral level, with the total A-share index P/E ratio at 23.5, lower than the S&P 500's 30.0 and Nasdaq's 42.0 [2] - Recent market trends show that small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks, driven by economic recovery and liquidity conditions favoring growth sectors aligned with national strategies [2][3] - The influx of liquidity from relaxed monetary policies and increased household deposits is expected to support the stock market, with a significant portion of deposits potentially shifting to higher-yielding financial products [3] Group 3 - The market is currently characterized by strong liquidity drivers, while the economic fundamentals are still stabilizing, indicating that improvements in corporate earnings and market style rotation are contingent on further domestic demand policies and clearer economic signals [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a phase of oscillation and adjustment after a strong upward trend, with future direction dependent on economic recovery and corporate profit improvement [1] - Analysts indicate that the recent increase in financing margin ratios aims to curb excessive speculation in the market, leading to a net outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs [1][2] - The current market is characterized by a strong performance of small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks, driven by economic recovery and liquidity conditions [2] Group 2 - The fiscal and monetary policies implemented at the beginning of the year have provided significant incremental liquidity to the market, with a high volume of maturing deposits expected to shift into higher-yielding financial products [3] - The cyclical industries are anticipated to experience a profit recovery cycle, particularly in sectors such as photovoltaics, generic drugs, and transportation, which will provide long-term positive drivers for the stock market [3] - Historical trends suggest that A-share bull markets are initially driven by risk appetite and capital inflows, followed by fundamental support, indicating that improvements in corporate earnings and market style rotation are still pending [4]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of January 23, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.7x and PB at 1.9x, positioned at the historical 83rd and 52nd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.5x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 58th and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.1x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 63rd and 37th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 38.9x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 71st and 63rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 51.5x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 74th and 61st percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 64.1x and PB at 3.0x, at the historical 79th and 71st percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 43.0x and PB at 5.8x, at the historical 42nd and 68th percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 180.4x and PB at 6.9x, at the historical 98th and 83rd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Defense and Military, Electronics (Semiconductors), and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Aquaculture and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, downstream spot prices continue to rise, while upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 10.8% [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt prices down by 3.7% and lithium carbonate prices up by 9.8% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.4%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 2.3% [3] - The DRAM price index increased by 3.0%, while NAND prices surged by 10.8% [3] Real Estate Chain - The average price of rebar fell by 1.3%, while iron ore prices decreased by 2.2% [3] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 17.2% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.5%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 2.1% [3] - Retail sales growth for 2025 is projected at 3.7%, with December's growth at 0.9%, below expectations [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 2.2% [3] - Heavy truck sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in December, with a total annual growth of approximately 26% [3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed up by 3.2% at $66.23 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 12.4%, indicating increased shipping demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market has experienced a cooling period despite previous strong performance, with significant net outflows from major ETFs and a need for attention on fund movements in the short term, while the long-term outlook for dividend stocks remains favorable due to their relative value and stability [1] - The recent market conditions have led to a rise in margin financing ratios and a notable net outflow exceeding 120 billion from the market, impacting large-cap stocks such as major telecom operators and oil companies [1] - The macroeconomic indicators, including inflation and social financing, are currently favorable for dividend stocks, and the divergence in market styles indicates a potential for recovery in the dividend sector [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Securities analysis indicates that the valuation of dividend stocks remains at historically low levels, reflecting the asset revaluation potential due to the appreciation of the RMB and their defensive value during economic structural transitions [2] - The Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF (515450) closely tracks the performance of the S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index, which measures the performance of the 50 least volatile high dividend yield large-cap stocks in the Chinese A-share market [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a low opening and a subsequent decline to 4080 points, followed by a V-shaped recovery back to 4100 points, indicating strong market resilience in digesting the "cooling" effects [1] - There are still opportunities for bullish investments, with funds shifting towards sectors with less resistance such as electric power, consumer goods, real estate, and transportation [1] - Recent outflows from broad-based ETFs, including the CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market, totaled over 200 billion yuan in the past week, reflecting a trend of capital withdrawal from these instruments [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Fund noted that the recent cooling of speculative market sentiment may not be negative, as it provides an opportunity for hesitant investors to enter the market, thus supporting the bottom and promoting sustained market performance [2] - During the dense pre-disclosure period of annual reports in late January, the market sentiment is expected to be cautious, and investors are advised to accumulate positions in large-cap value and growth styles, such as the CSI 300 ETF and the ChiNext 50 ETF, which have the lowest management fee rates in the market at 0.15% per year [2]