人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 20260105 当前人民币升值与过去几轮相比具有一些相似点和不同点。2017 年北向资金 大量流入，对核心龙头白马股拉动效应明显；2020 年至 2021 年，中国供应 链韧性凸显，大制造、新能源产业崛起；2022 年底至 2023 年初，则主要博 弈经济景气承压下的复苏反弹。 当前阶段更接近于 2020 年至 2021 年的状态， 有产业趋势支撑，但不同的是这次主导方式发生变化。过去外资边际影响力较 强，而这次并未看到外资在市场上起到很大作用。例如，从北向资金流入情况 来看，今年二、三季度并不明显，而港股表现也不如 A 股。因此，这次更多是 短线热点穿插逻辑，而非估值修复逻辑，更强调技术革命带来的产业机会，如 AI 基建应用、人形机器人等板块。 在当前环境下有哪些具体投资建议？ 近期人民币升值对市场有哪些影响，哪些行业和主题值得关注？ 近期人民币升值对市场产生了显著影响，特别是在节前和节后的交易日中，市 场成交额有所回暖，即使外资缺位，成交额仍能达到 1.9 万亿甚至 2 万亿以上。 这表明内资对市场的托底效应明显。在此背景下，有几个行业和主题值得关注： 首先是航空 ...

来源：仁桥资产 原标题：仁桥资产投资备忘录——2025 2025年，牛市如期而至，但这样的牛市似乎并不属于我们。恍然之中有一种时光倒流的错觉，仿佛一下 子又回到了2013-2015，2020-2021年时的光景，也许，这背后还是那周期的钟摆在支配着一切。不过我 想人应该是有能动性的生命，尽管我们改变不了周期，但经验和教训的不断累积还是可以让我们更精进 一些，哪怕只有一点点。对仁桥而言，牛市中的收益不足始终是我们需要正面的一个事实，这里面既有 思维缺乏想象力的原因，也有勤奋不够以及运气的因素，这其中有多少可以改变和迭代，又有多少属于 宿命和必然，其实我们也无法说清楚。在经历多个周期之后，说实话，我们不会贸然的去否定和总结， 更不敢大刀阔斧的去行动和改变，我们唯一持续在做的，就是在不断告慰自己，接受不完美的事实，但 同时给思想和策略打开一点点口子，让我们向着可能更合理的方向迈出一小步，在稳定中做优化，正所 谓山高万仞，只登一步。 回顾2025年全球的股票市场，毫无疑问，这应该是全球投资人收获的一年，可谓是皆大欢喜。无论是主 要的发达市场指数，美欧日韩澳；还是多数的新兴市场指数，印度、巴西、越南、印尼、墨西哥等，都 ...

以下文章来源于宇观策略 ，作者张宇生 宇观策略 . 光大策略张宇生团队感谢您的支持 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 报告摘要 12月A股、港股出现分化 12月A股主要指数普遍上涨。受政策利好催化、市场风险偏好回暖等因素影响，12月（截至26日），A股 主要指数普遍上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，12月份累计上涨了6.3%，而科创50涨幅最小，累计上涨了 1.4%。行业端分化明显，国防军工、通信、有色金属涨幅居前。相对而言，金融地产及消费等板块表现则 较差，如传媒、房地产、食品饮料、银行等。 12月港股市场走势震荡。12月受美联储降息预期波动、美股波动等因素影响，港股市场整体走势较为震 荡。截至2025年12月26日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生科技、恒生中国企业指数的涨幅 分别为2.4%、-0.2%、-0.4%、-1.8%、-2.4%。 A股观点：市场有望震荡上行 政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。一方面，历史来看，A股市场中几 乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红 ...

Core Conclusion - The market is closely watching whether the spring rally (including the year-end rally) has started, with the traditional definition requiring a rise of over 10% from the market low, a clear structural main line, and a solid support logic [1][2]. Group 1: Spring Rally Indicators - The A-share "Rally" Index, constructed by the company, is used to track the initiation of the spring rally, with a significant signal being when the index crosses above the zero line from negative territory [2][8]. - As of now, the index has risen from a low of -9.67% on December 17 to around -6%, indicating that the spring rally has not yet clearly started and is still in a consolidation phase [1][2][8]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of clear main lines despite the presence of various hotspots, suggesting a state of rapid structural rotation [4]. - The company emphasizes the need for the market index to stabilize above 4000 points, transitioning from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentally driven one before a clear upward trend can be established [3][4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Patterns - Historically, the spring rally typically occurs between December and February, with an average return of 10-15% during this period [14][21]. - The company notes that the majority of core indices have recovered to over 70% of their historical PE valuation percentiles, which constrains the potential for a significant year-end rally [19][21]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Rotation - The historical pattern shows that large-cap stocks tend to rise first during the spring rally, followed by small-cap stocks, with a rotation from cyclical value to technology and broader manufacturing and growth sectors [22][24]. - The company identifies that the cyclical value style has historically performed strongly in December to January, with a win rate of 70% since 2003, while growth styles tend to perform better in January [24].

全球资本市场的目光，正密切注视着香港恒生指数的脉搏。作为亚洲重要的市场风向标，其走势不仅反 映本地经济活力，更深度镶嵌于错综复杂的全球宏观图景之中。当前，驱动恒生指数的外部基本面因 素，正经历一场深刻而多层次的演变。 一、全球货币政策周期的历史性转向 过去两年间，为应对数十年来未遇的高通胀压力，以美联储为首的主要央行开启了激进的加息缩表进 程。高企的利率环境极大地压制了成长型股票的估值，并促使国际资本从新兴市场向美元资产回流，这 对以科技股和金融股为权重股的恒生指数构成了持续的压力。 然而，这一紧缩周期已步入尾声。市场普遍预期，美联储的货币政策正从"限制性"向"中性"乃至"宽 松"缓慢过渡。一旦降息周期确认开启，全球流动性环境将迎来拐点。对于港元与美元挂钩的香港市场 而言，美债收益率的回落将直接减轻本地资产的估值压力，并为恒生指数提供最关键的流动性支撑。国 际资本有望重新配置估值处于历史相对低位的港股市场，这将是未来指数上行的重要引擎。 二、地缘政治格局的再平衡与风险溢价调整 地缘政治已成为影响市场不可或缺的变量。中美关系的动态，以及全球供应链的重构趋势，持续为市场 注入不确定性。一方面，某些领域的摩擦会阶段 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dividend assets continue to show strong performance, with three major ETFs experiencing consecutive gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards dividend-focused investments [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - As of November 10, the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550), the CSI Dividend ETF (515080), and the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) have increased by 1.19%, 0.61%, and 0.60% respectively, marking six consecutive days of gains for the first two and four days for the latter [1] - The current prices for the ETFs are as follows: 520550 at 1.275, 159209 at 1.176, and 515080 at 1.646, with respective changes of 0.016 (1.27%), 0.006 (0.51%), and 0.011 (0.67%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The three ETFs have distinct characteristics: the CSI Dividend ETF focuses on undervalued high-dividend sectors like banking and coal, showcasing a nearly 5% dividend yield that highlights its defensive value; the CSI Dividend Quality ETF selects high-quality consumer and pharmaceutical companies based on ROE and other quality factors, balancing dividends with growth; the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF attracts funds with a 6% high dividend yield, with over 60% weight in financial and real estate sectors, demonstrating significant low volatility [2] - Experts recommend a "core + satellite" investment strategy, using the CSI Dividend ETF as a base and combining it with the other two products to diversify risk and enhance returns [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - All three products feature low fees and a regular dividend assessment mechanism, facilitating long-term holding [2] - Investors should be aware of the currency risk associated with Hong Kong products and the inherent limitations of dividend strategies regarding growth potential [2]

- The report mentions the construction of enhanced strategy ETFs, which are based on indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE STAR 50, and others. These ETFs aim to outperform their respective benchmarks through quantitative strategies and factor-based enhancements [23][24][35] - The construction process involves selecting stocks from the underlying index and applying quantitative models to optimize the portfolio. The models may include factor analysis, risk control, and return enhancement techniques. Specific formulas or methodologies are not detailed in the report [23][24][35] - Evaluation of enhanced strategy ETFs indicates that 18 out of 51 ETFs outperformed their benchmarks last week. Over the past year, 30 out of 33 ETFs achieved positive excess returns, showcasing the effectiveness of the strategy [23][24][35] - Testing results for enhanced strategy ETFs show varying excess returns. For example, the CSI 300 Enhanced ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.64%, while the CSI 500 Enhanced ETF achieved 1.42%. Over the past year, the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF delivered an excess return of 28.67%, and the Guozheng 2000 Enhanced ETF achieved 33.35% [24][35][36]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with major indices rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.92% [3] - Despite the index gains, trading volume has significantly decreased by 19.5%, indicating a "shrinking rally" pattern [4] Capital Flow Dynamics - There is a disconnect between rising indices and the reluctance of new capital to enter the market, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [5] - Recent developments, such as the resumption of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the approval of the "14th Five-Year Plan," have positively influenced market sentiment [6] Policy and Investment Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes investment in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and critical areas like quantum technology and solid-state batteries [7] - The policy direction aims to enhance technological independence and resource security, which could lead to significant investment opportunities in these sectors [7] Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing a stark divergence in stock performance, with certain sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals seeing gains over 25%, while financials and real estate lag behind [9] - The volatility in technology stocks indicates a short-term speculative environment, with significant capital inflows and outflows observed [9] Investment Strategies - With over 5000 stocks available, identifying reliable investment opportunities is challenging, leading to a preference for index funds [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the scale of passive index funds has surpassed 3.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.11% of A-share market capitalization [10] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market have rebounded, with a net inflow of 4.6 billion USD in September 2025, marking the highest monthly figure since November 2024 [12] - Projections indicate a potential 30% upside for A-shares by the end of 2027, driven by earnings growth and valuation re-rating [12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the potential for a significant style switch in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the strong performance of mainstream stocks in Q3 may not continue into Q4, indicating a high probability of style switching [1][9]. - Historical analysis shows that in bull markets driven by liquidity, style switching is more pronounced compared to fundamental-driven bull markets, which tend to have less volatility and fewer style changes [1][2]. - The report introduces an "A-share high-cut low" index, which indicates that low-positioned stocks are becoming more effective, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a "high-cut low" pricing process, characterized by high-positioned stocks declining while low-positioned stocks are rapidly rotating, indicating that a clear style switch has not yet formed [2]. - The mid-term style switch is highlighted, with a focus on the transition from value to growth stocks, marking the beginning of a new cycle in 2025 [2][24]. - Short-term observations indicate that the internal rotation of high and low-positioned technology stocks lacks clear patterns, relying more on industrial logic rather than trading sentiment [2][3]. Group 3 - The report discusses the relationship between A-share technology stocks and Hong Kong technology stocks, noting that the relative excess returns of the ChiNext index compared to the Hang Seng Tech index have peaked and are now declining [3][28]. - It highlights the difficulty in breaking through the high differentiation between technology and cyclical styles, with recent PPI stabilization making it challenging for these styles to diverge significantly [3][31]. - The report also mentions the convergence of M2 and social financing growth rates, indicating that large-cap stocks are currently outperforming small-cap stocks [3][36]. Group 4 - The report evaluates the potential transition from a "liquidity bull" to a "fundamental bull" in the fourth quarter, tracking signals related to geopolitical and economic cycles [3][4]. - It suggests that the upcoming APEC meeting and the end of the new round of US-China tariff exemptions may lead to a more stable internal and external environment, which is crucial for economic growth [4]. - The report anticipates that the true style switch may not occur until November, when low-positioned cyclical stocks could become the focus of investment strategies [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the past 15 years (2010-2024), the probability of large-cap style outperforming in October is relatively high, with a 67% chance of outperforming the broad market index [9][4]. - Value style has a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth style, with a 53% chance of outperforming the broad market index [9][4]. - The main drivers for significant style shifts in the fourth quarter typically include policy changes, disruptions in strong sector logic, or new developments that reinforce other sector logics [4][22]. Group 2 - In terms of liquidity, the report notes that the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 15,263 billion yuan in the week of October 6-12, with a future expectation of 10,210 billion yuan in reverse repos [26][29]. - The report highlights that the average weekly trading volume in the A-share market increased to 22,704.16 billion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [4][37]. - The net inflow of financing funds reached 473.1 billion yuan, marking a shift from previous net outflows [4][37]. Group 3 - The report identifies that financial real estate and TMT sectors have historically performed well in the fourth quarter, with financial style appearing superior in 4 out of the past 15 years [17][18]. - The report also notes that large-cap style has a higher occurrence rate, appearing in 9 out of the past 15 fourth quarters [18][21]. - The technology leader index has the highest probability of outperforming the broad market index at 62%, with an average return of 3.58% [21][22]. Group 4 - The report mentions that the market sentiment has shown increased trading activity in financing funds, with the proportion of financing transactions in the A-share market rising to 13.9% [46][48]. - The VIX index has increased, indicating a decline in market risk appetite, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also experiencing declines [48][49]. - The report highlights that the demand for funds has decreased, with no IPO financing in the week of October 9-10, and a reduction in planned share reductions by major shareholders [41][42].