来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF炼金师） 资金层面，险资等中长期资金配置需求的持续释放，有望为红利资产带来稳定的资金流入。近年来，险 资在港股市场的布局显著加速，2024年已在二级市场合计举牌20次，涉及多个港股上市公司。与此同 时，保险资金长期投资的试点也在加快推进，政策引导下，权益类基金的规模和占比有望提升，这也预 示着红利低波动资产将成为中长期资金主要的增配方向。 在资产内部结构方面，港股红利的股息率显著优于A股。数据显示，截至9月18日，恒生高股息指数的 股息率达到了6.14%，而中证红利指数的股息率则为4.86%。即使考虑到红利税，港股红利资产的实际 收益仍然优于A股同类资产。此外，央企在股息吸引力上表现尤为突出，恒生中国央企指数的股息率在 过去三年维持在5%以上，远高于国企和民企。 针对国新港股通央企红利ETF的投资分析，该ETF通过追踪中证国新港股通央企红利指数 （931722.CSI）来为投资者提供配置港股央企红利资产的渠道。该指数的构建选取了分红水平稳定且股 息率较高的央企上市公司，反映了港股通范围内具有高股息率的央企整体表现。 自2020年以来，国新港股通央企红利的累计收益率为37.2%，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that by Q2 2025, the global trade environment will be increasingly complex, with escalating tariff conflicts and geopolitical risks. However, domestic advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, are driving progress in the tech industry, while some sectors are beginning to recover from a downturn [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The advanced manufacturing sector is in the process of bottoming out, with capital expenditure showing a continuous decline for six consecutive quarters, but signs of improvement in profitability are emerging [2][3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector continues to exhibit high prosperity, supported by industry trends and policy backing, with the electronic industry performance on the rise due to overseas demand [2][3]. - The cyclical industries are experiencing significant performance differentiation, with some sectors like non-ferrous metals showing high return on equity (ROE) while others like coal and construction are still facing negative growth [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector may have reached its bottom, with a narrowing decline in revenue and net profit, and ROE beginning to recover from low levels [3][4]. - The financial and real estate sectors show structural differentiation, with non-bank financials recovering while real estate continues to decline [3][4]. Group 2: Profit Structure and Trends - A-share profits are increasingly concentrated in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with Q2 2025 net profits totaling 4.83 trillion yuan, where financial real estate accounts for over 50% and cyclical industries contribute about a quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that industries with improved financial indicators are primarily in high-prosperity electronic sectors and those in the bottom reversal phase, while sectors like food and beverage and coal show deterioration across key financial metrics [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most industries are experiencing negative growth in employee numbers, indicating a continuous supply clearing process [5][6]. - The report notes that many manufacturing sectors are below historical supply cycles, with some industries like photovoltaic equipment and real estate showing low new capacity but high inventory levels [6][7]. - Demand-side indicators show that sectors with rising fixed asset turnover and high contract liability growth are primarily in military, electronics, and export manufacturing, indicating potential recovery in these areas [7][8]. Group 4: International Market Performance - Approximately two-thirds of industries with significant overseas revenue have seen an increase in their overseas income share, with many maintaining higher gross margins than their domestic counterparts [8][9]. - Industries with high overseas revenue are experiencing marginal improvements in their fundamentals, particularly in the TMT sector and some renewable energy areas [8][9]. Group 5: Dividend Trends - The mid-term dividend phenomenon continues, with banks announcing a total of 237.29 billion yuan in mid-term dividends, alongside significant dividends from sectors like oil and gas, telecommunications, and non-bank financials [9][10]. Group 6: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies sectors with potential for reversal opportunities, particularly in pharmaceuticals, banking, and AI applications, with a focus on those currently in a low price-to-book (PB) and low ROE state [9][10]. - The electric equipment sector is noted for its value proposition, with ongoing improvements in fundamentals and supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [10][11].

Group 1: Subsidy Analysis - Land subsidies for the industrial sector in 70 cities averaged 1.45 trillion annually from 2017 to 2024, accounting for approximately 1.3% of national GDP[1] - In 2023, tax incentives for the manufacturing sector's corporate income tax were about 730 billion, representing 0.56% of GDP[1] - The average industrial land price in 2024 was 497 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than residential land prices, creating a price gap that benefits industrial sectors[1] Group 2: Tax Burden Disparities - In 2023, the lowest tax burdens were in Guangxi (8.5%), Fujian (8.6%), and Hunan (8.7%), while the highest were in Beijing (34.5%) and Shanghai (33.4%)[1] - The tax burden in the eastern region was 16.4%, higher than the central (10.7%), western (12.4%), and northeastern (12.7%) regions[1] - The manufacturing sector's tax burden was 16.8%, with high burdens in finance, real estate, and heavy industries[1] Group 3: Industry and Regional Insights - In 2023, the automotive manufacturing sector in Hebei had a profit margin of 1.9% and a tax burden of 2.7%, indicating potential internal competition issues[1] - The electrical machinery sector in Shaanxi had a profit margin of 2.3% and a tax burden of 1.8%, suggesting similar competitive pressures[1] - The electronic equipment sector in Anhui reported a profit margin of -0.6% and a tax burden of 1.1%, highlighting challenges in profitability[1] Group 4: Transition in Government Behavior - Local governments are shifting from "race to the bottom" competition, characterized by lowering costs, to "race to the top," focusing on improving the business environment and innovation[1] - This transition is driven by pressures from the real estate market, changes in industrial policy, and tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption environments[1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading gains while the Shanghai Composite Index showed narrow fluctuations [1] - Gold concept stocks saw a collective surge, while large financial stocks underwent adjustments, with insurance stocks leading the decline [1] ETF Performance - The New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF reached a limit-up increase of 10%, while gold-related ETFs rose over 8% [2] - Specific ETFs such as the Gold Stock ETF and its variants showed significant gains, with increases ranging from 8.15% to 9.22% [2] Sector Analysis - Analysts suggest that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support commodity prices, including gold and silver, leading to a bullish outlook from several international financial institutions [3] - Conversely, the Nasdaq Technology ETF fell over 2%, and Hong Kong automotive-related ETFs dropped more than 1% [3][4] Automotive Sector Outlook - Brokerages indicate that the vehicle sales performance in 2024 is expected to exceed expectations due to the vehicle trade-in policy, with continued support for automotive consumption in 2025 [5] - The automotive sector is projected to enter a phase of high sales prosperity, driven by event catalysts and industry trends [5]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Upward Trends}}{\text{Total Number of Trends}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[27][28][31] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from deep learning algorithms processing historical trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but has mixed results in longer cycles[33][34][36] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.06%, Excess Return: -0.00%, August Excess Return: -0.45%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -0.41%[31] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.71%, Excess Return: 0.65%, August Excess Return: 0.32%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -4.35%[36] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor ranks industries based on GRU network outputs, which are calculated from historical volume and price data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant changes in rankings, indicating its sensitivity to market conditions[6][14][34] - GRU Industry Factor, Steel: 2.82, Building Materials: 1.72, Transportation: 1.3, Oil & Petrochemicals: 0.27, Construction: -0.46, Comprehensive: -1.87[6][14][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an update on the second quarter reports of various fund managers, highlighting their investment styles, strategies, and market outlooks for 2025. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers present two main contents in their quarterly reports: a review of past investments and future market outlooks [3][9] - Different fund managers have varying attitudes towards market conditions, influenced by their investment styles [5][6] Group 2: Investment Styles - **Deep Value Style**: Focuses on low valuation metrics such as low P/E and P/B ratios, investing primarily in financials, real estate, and energy sectors. Returns are derived from both earnings growth and valuation recovery [8][9] - **Growth Value Style**: Emphasizes companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term. This style is represented by well-known managers like Zhang Kun [14] - **Balanced Style**: Combines growth potential and valuation, seeking investments that are both good and cheap, often utilizing metrics like PEG [30][31] Group 3: Performance Insights - The performance of deep value funds has varied over the years, with notable periods of outperformance and underperformance [11] - Fund managers express concerns over market volatility and the impact of economic conditions on stock prices, indicating a cautious approach to investment [12][19] Group 4: Sector Allocations - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios based on market conditions, with a focus on sectors like technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, while being cautious about sectors facing headwinds [17][20][22] - There is a notable interest in AI and innovative sectors, with many managers increasing their allocations to these areas in anticipation of future growth [37][59] Group 5: Economic Outlook - Fund managers maintain a generally optimistic view on the long-term growth potential of the Chinese economy, despite short-term challenges [19][60] - The expectation of a recovery in domestic demand and the potential for significant investment opportunities in emerging sectors are highlighted as key themes for the upcoming quarters [68][69]

Core Insights - The three major dividend strategy ETFs performed well, with the China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) leading with a 0.70% increase, followed by the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) at 0.66%, and the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) at 0.57% [1][2] ETF Performance Summary - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) has a 5% dividend yield, focusing on undervalued sectors like banking and coal, highlighting its defensive value [2] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) offers a 6% high dividend yield, with over 60% weight in financial and real estate sectors, showcasing significant low volatility characteristics [2] - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) selects high-quality consumer and pharmaceutical companies based on ROE and other quality factors, balancing dividends and growth [2] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Experts suggest a "core + satellite" strategy, using the China Securities Dividend ETF as a base and combining it with the other two products to diversify risk and enhance returns [3] - All three products feature low fees and a monthly dividend mechanism, facilitating long-term holding [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant bullish momentum, with major indices collectively rising and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating a potential new bull market cycle [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in major indices, with nearly 4400 stocks gaining, reflecting strong market sentiment [1][6]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, with sectors such as brokerage, new energy, and healthcare leading the gains [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - Recent policy announcements, including the full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port and the expansion of cross-border asset management trials, have positively impacted the brokerage sector, contributing to the market's upward movement [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Politburo meeting will provide further guidance on future investment opportunities [5]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Historical analysis indicates that the A-share market is currently in a new bull market cycle, with comparisons drawn to previous bull markets in 2005 and 2015 [10][12]. - The current financing balance has exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan, suggesting that there is still room for growth compared to previous peaks [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as banking, insurance, and consumer goods, while also considering technology and healthcare for long-term growth potential [22][23]. - A balanced investment approach, including both undervalued blue-chip stocks and growth-oriented technology sectors, is recommended to navigate the current market conditions [24].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "攻守兼备红利50组合" (Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model adopts an active quantitative strategy with a "top-down" stock selection logic. It aims to identify high-potential stocks within dividend-related themes by leveraging a refined factor library and aligning with industry and thematic insights[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model focuses on dividend-related stocks, emphasizing a balance between "stability" and "growth" factors[15] 2. It selects stocks from a universe of high-dividend companies, incorporating both fundamental and thematic factors to refine the portfolio[14][15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed and periodically rebalanced to maintain alignment with the strategy's objectives[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong ability to generate excess returns over the benchmark, showcasing its robustness in balancing defensive and growth-oriented attributes[22] 2. Model Name: "央国企高分红30组合" (Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model targets high-dividend stocks within central state-owned enterprises (SOEs), emphasizing stability and defensive characteristics[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio is constructed by selecting 30 high-dividend stocks from central SOEs[15] 2. It prioritizes companies with consistent dividend payouts and strong financial health[15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed to ensure alignment with its defensive strategy[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing stable returns, making it suitable for risk-averse investors seeking consistent income[22] 3. Model Name: "电子均衡配置增强组合" (Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to achieve balanced exposure within the electronics sector, focusing on diversification and stability[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio selects stocks across various sub-sectors within the electronics industry[15] 2. It employs a balanced allocation strategy to mitigate concentration risks[15] 3. The portfolio is periodically rebalanced to maintain its diversified structure[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated positive excess returns over the electronics sector index, indicating its effectiveness in achieving balanced growth[32] 4. Model Name: "电子板块优选增强组合" (Electronics Sector Preferred Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying leading companies within mature sub-sectors of the electronics industry, emphasizing growth potential[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio targets mature sub-sector leaders with strong fundamentals and growth prospects[15] 2. It employs a factor-based approach to refine stock selection within the electronics sector[15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the sector[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved significant excess returns over the electronics sector index, highlighting its ability to capture growth opportunities[32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "攻守兼备红利50组合" - Excess return over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index: 4.76% (YTD 2025)[22] - Weekly excess return: 0.85%[22] 2. "央国企高分红30组合" - Weekly excess return over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index: 0.11%[22] 3. "电子均衡配置增强组合" - Excess return over the electronics sector index (YTD 2025): 2.40%[32] 4. "电子板块优选增强组合" - Excess return over the electronics sector index (YTD 2025): 5.83%[32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share market is driven by strong mid-year earnings reports, with many companies experiencing significant profit growth, leading to increased investor interest and stock price appreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of July 12, approximately 487 A-share companies have disclosed mid-year earnings forecasts, with a positive outlook rate of 57.7%, slightly higher than the same period last year [3]. - The non-bank sector shows a high positive outlook rate of about 90.9%, with companies like China Union and Huaxi Securities expecting over 1000% growth [3]. - The home appliance sector has a positive outlook rate of around 70%, with companies like Whirlpool and Sichuan Changhong reporting growth rates exceeding 50% [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Companies with strong earnings forecasts, such as Huayin Power, have seen their stock prices surge, with Huayin Power's stock rising 101.33% in July and achieving a 36 to 44 times increase in net profit [1][4]. - Other companies like Yudai Development are also experiencing significant stock price increases, with a forecasted net profit growth of 632% to 784% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - High-performing sectors identified include AI hardware supply chains, wind power, gaming, small metals, and non-bank financials, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [6][7]. - The second quarter's performance is expected to be strong in upstream industrial metals, wind power, and sectors with order fulfillment expectations, such as military industries [7]. - Historical data indicates that there have been nine structural market trends during mid-year earnings disclosures since 2010, with TMT sectors showing potential for recovery in August [7].