Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for stock price appreciation in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and a net profit of 1.766 billion yuan, up 100.52% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to successful leasing strategies and the strong performance of emerging businesses, particularly Chinagoods and cross-border payment services [1][2]. - The company has seen significant cash inflow and contract liabilities, with operating net cash inflow reaching 9.605 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 20 times [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, a 23.07% increase, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, up 48.45% [1]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 23.146 billion yuan, 28.965 billion yuan, and 34.766 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.792 billion yuan, 6.053 billion yuan, and 6.955 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 26.47%, reflecting a 4.53 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. Emerging Business Growth - The emerging business segment, particularly the Chinagoods platform and cross-border payment services, is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with transaction volume exceeding 27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 35% [2]. - The integration of AI capabilities and the establishment of a closed-loop ecosystem for trade and payment services are anticipated to enhance service offerings and market competitiveness [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][2] Core Views - The company has entered an expansion phase driven by the opening of new markets, enhancing its trade service capabilities. The third quarter saw accelerated performance with revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, up 100.52% year-on-year [1][2] - The company benefits from the global digital trade center that commenced its recruitment work in June, leading to increased entrance qualification fees and steady rental growth in its core business. The cross-border payment business also contributed significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 27 billion yuan, a growth of over 35% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11.30 billion yuan, net profit of 2.68 billion yuan - 2024: Revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, net profit of 3.07 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 20.72 billion yuan, net profit of 4.69 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 27.49 billion yuan, net profit of 7.03 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 33.60 billion yuan, net profit of 8.39 billion yuan [3][15] - The company’s gross margin improved to 45.41%, an increase of 15.31 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-margin entrance qualification fees and cost optimization [1][2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 9.605 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2021.98% year-on-year, benefiting from the collection of fees from the global digital trade center and sales from commercial properties [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 22.3, 14.9, and 12.5 respectively, reflecting an upward revision in net profit forecasts due to the opening of the global digital trade center [2][3] - The estimated EBIT margin is expected to improve from 15.90% in 2023 to 30.48% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][15]