Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

乌克兰债券受和平进程拖累表现低迷 东欧邻国市场飙升 金十数据5月25日讯，由于特朗普促成和平协议的前景暗淡，乌克兰美元债券在2025年迄今给投资者带 来了超过10%的损失，为新兴和前沿市场中表现最差。而年初时由于对停火的押注，一些乌克兰债券价 格自去年8月重组以来几乎翻了一番，并提振了整个东欧市场。伦敦对冲基金Frontier Road转向企业债 券以规避地缘风险，美银虽维持超配建议但警告战事持续带来的"下行风险"，摩根士丹利预计冲突将延 续至2025年。"市场已回落至特朗普当选前水平，"安本投资董事Viktor Szabo指出。华沙、布拉格和布 达佩斯主要股指年内美元计价回报率均超30%，匈牙利福林、捷克克朗和波兰兹罗提领跑新兴市场货币 涨幅。但乌克兰2035年到期零息债券价格已从2月的70美分跌至50美分。 ...

乌克兰美元债券上涨3美分，2030年到期的债券报价为54.44美分。 ...