Core Viewpoint - The South African Rand (ZAR) has shown a strong performance at the beginning of 2026, trading at approximately 16.51 ZAR per USD, benefiting from a weaker USD and various supportive domestic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South African Rand appreciated by about 12.4% against the USD in 2025, making it one of the standout performers among major emerging market currencies [1]. - Despite facing pressures from US trade and political policies, the Rand has remained relatively strong, with a measure of expected volatility reaching its lowest level since the turn of the century [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Key factors supporting the Rand's strength include its removal from the Financial Action Task Force's special scrutiny list in October 2025, a mid-term budget policy that gained market approval in November 2025, and an upgrade in South Africa's sovereign credit rating by S&P Global [1]. - The government's implementation of interest rate cuts in a low inflation environment has also contributed positively to market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Investec's chief economist, the Rand's performance is significantly influenced by USD fluctuations, with expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially boosting commodity prices, which would benefit commodity currencies like the Rand [2]. - However, the Rand remains a highly volatile emerging market currency, with risks of correction due to domestic policy changes or external shocks that could impact exchange rate trends and market expectations [2].

2025年市场波动中，新兴市场货币表现强劲，新兴市场外汇交易兴趣大增也成为亮点。而2026年美元疲 软趋势预计将持续，这将有利于新兴市场。对冲基金和银行外汇交易部门受益最大。 例如，作为长期以来在新兴市场中处于边缘地位的货币，匈牙利福林的交易量自美国总统特朗普于今年 1月上任以来已增长了一倍多。自他宣布大规模的"解放日"进口关税政策以来，交易者的兴趣更是与日 俱增。交易员、策略师和对冲基金表示，这些交易量的增加并非偶然现象;他们正在参与规模高达每天1 万亿美元的全球外汇市场交易。 今年，福林兑美元汇率已上涨约20%，创下近25年来最佳表现，成为2025年新兴货币表现最佳的货币之 一。从更广泛的层面来看，今年新兴市场货币的表现也相当不错：MSCI新兴市场货币指数在7月创下历 史新高，并有望实现自2017年以来的最佳年度表现，涨幅超过6%。接受机构调查的交易员、基金经理 和分析师大多预计这一趋势明年也将持续下去。 新兴市场货币表现强劲得益于美元波动性增强且持续走弱，这促使投资者重新审视对美元的投资敞口， 并对长期以来美元的强势和全球货币地位提出质疑。与此同时，他们正在押注一些发展中国家(从南非 到匈牙利)的经济价 ...

"你有没有注意到最近人民币的波动？有些人觉得它会继续贬值，但也有人认为，人民币保持相对稳定，反而是一个亮点。" 这是不少人最近谈论的一个话 题，尤其是在全球经济面临许多不确定性的时候。汇率问题总是能牵动不少人的神经，不管是普通消费者，还是在国际市场上有业务往来的公司，都在密切 关注着这些数字的变化。 11月25日，人民币对美元的中间价报在7.0847元左右，虽然美元的反弹趋势明显，但人民币并没有像往年一样大幅贬值，这一方面说明了国内经济的韧性， 另一方面也证明了中国政府在外汇市场上的调控能力。特别是在出口和资本流动方面，人民币的表现让很多人看到了它的抗压能力。 其实，人民币的汇率走势并不是单纯受到美国经济政策的影响，它的稳定也和中国一系列宏观经济策略有关。比如，外汇储备的管理、资本流动的管控，都 在一定程度上限制了人民币的剧烈波动，让它在全球货币市场中保持了一定的稳定性。尤其是在美元指数反弹的情况下，人民币并没有跟随贬值，反倒能够 稳住阵脚，这对于那些依赖出口的企业来说，无疑是一大利好消息。 美元的强势回升，是最近汇率市场中的一个大热点。随着美国加息预期的升温，美元指数一路走高，成为市场关注的焦点。然而，尽管 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research anticipates that risk assets will receive stronger support, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen until 2026, despite market volatility due to uncertainties surrounding AI valuations, investment returns, and earnings growth [1] Group 1: US Dollar Outlook - The positive outlook for the US dollar is primarily based on significant AI capital expenditure plans in the US, which could have transformative impacts on the economy, geopolitics, and competition [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, tariff risks are easing, and fiscal stimulus measures are advancing, contributing to a positive momentum for the dollar expected to last until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Even if risk sentiment deteriorates further, there is still potential for the dollar to appreciate against the yen, while high-beta emerging market currencies may face vulnerabilities [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies experienced a slight decline as traders processed signs of progress in Ukraine peace negotiations while awaiting more insights on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell slightly, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and Colombian peso [1] - The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase amid low trading volumes as traders focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to solidify their bets on a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The index tracking emerging market stocks also experienced a slight decline, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the currency market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies continue their earlier upward trend, while stock market declines have narrowed due to comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari, which have put pressure on the dollar and boosted risk appetite [1] - The MSCI index, which measures emerging market currencies, rose by 0.2%, with the Colombian peso and South African rand leading the gains [1] - Similar stock market indices experienced slight declines, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].