报告共计：28页 量子计算：一场静悄悄的革命，正如何改变未来算力格局 当经典计算机的算力提升逐渐逼近物理极限，一场基于量子力学原理的算力革命正在全球范围内加速酝酿。量子计算，这个曾 被视作遥远未来的概念，如今已从实验室步入产业化初期，成为各国科技竞争的战略制高点。它凭借其潜在的指数级算力优 势，有望重塑从药物研发、材料科学到金融建模的众多领域，开启一个全新的计算纪元。 今天分享的是：2025量子计算行业深度：行业概况、发展趋势、产业链及相关公司深度梳理 从概念到现实：多路径竞逐下的产业萌芽 量子计算的核心在于利用量子比特的"叠加"与"纠缠"特性，实现远超经典计算机的并行处理能力。当前，全球技术路线呈现多 元化探索格局，主要分为超导、离子阱、光量子、中性原子及半导体等路径。其中，超导路线凭借较高的保真度、较好的扩展 性以及与现有半导体工艺的兼容性，在工程化和产业化进展上暂时领先。谷歌、IBM等国际科技巨头在该路线上已实现从量子 优越性演示到纠错突破的关键里程碑。与此同时，离子阱、光量子等路线也在特定性能指标上展现独特优势，共同推动着技术 向更稳定、更可靠、规模更大的方向演进。 全球竞速：中美领跑，生态构建成为关 ...

近期，在一场关于《天工开物》的圆桌讨论会上，有学者将这部中国17世纪的工艺百科全书与人工 智能大模型DeepSeek联系起来，称其为"400年前的DeepSeek"。这一跨越时空的链接，为更好读懂今日 中国创新成势的文化土壤和历史滋养提供了启示。 循文化的根基才能辨识当今的中国。在国际社会普遍认为中国对世界未来影响将不断上升的今天， 从文明视角切入，形成一种更客观准确的中国观，尤具现实意义。历史上，中华民族的大量创新成果不 断沿着丝绸之路等交流通道传向全球。《天工开物》就是一个典型例证。该书传入欧洲后广泛流传，记 载其中的多项技术受到重视与借鉴。有学者称，"宋应星如果被请到产业革命前后的英国，可能拿到多 项专利"。 今天，开放包容、互惠共享，成为中国创新的鲜明特征。"中国接下来将主导什么领域""中国是否 会赢得创新竞赛"……一些西方媒体在报道中国创新时，常带有浓浓的危机感和博弈色彩，究其原因， 仍是在以自身的思维定式看中国。如今，中国创新发展的每一步，都彰显着"立己达人、兼济天下"的开 放胸怀。DeepSeek大模型坚持开源路径，嫦娥六号月背采样任务搭载多国科学载荷，"中国天眼"向全球 科学家开放观测申请，" ...

近年来，一系列现象级创新产品的问世，让中国创新频频成为国际舆论场的焦点，悄然间改变着世人看 待中国的眼光。这一中国观的变化来之不易。近代中国积贫积弱，国家蒙辱、人民蒙难、文明蒙尘，以 至于世界对古老中华文明的认识也不免失真。其中，所谓中国"不懂创新"就是一种影响颇远的误读。 今天，开放包容、互惠共享，成为中国创新的鲜明特征。"中国接下来将主导什么领域""中国是否会赢 得创新竞赛"……一些西方媒体在报道中国创新时，常带有浓浓的危机感和博弈色彩，究其原因，仍是 在以自身的思维定式看中国。如今，中国创新发展的每一步，都彰显着"立己达人、兼济天下"的开放胸 怀。DeepSeek大模型坚持开源路径，嫦娥六号月背采样任务搭载多国科学载荷，"中国天眼"向全球科学 家开放观测申请，"中国的北斗"成为"世界的北斗"……中国一以贯之推动国际科技交流合作和开放共 享，让科技创新成果为更多国家和人民所及、所享、所用。 事实上，岁月长河始终闪耀着中华民族创新创造的熠熠光辉。5000多年文明发展进程中，中华民族为世 界贡献了大量科技创新成果，对人类文明进步影响深远。英国学者李约瑟在《中国科学技术史》中从A 到Z列举了中国古代传入欧洲等地 ...

近年来，一系列现象级创新产品的问世，让中国创新频频成为国际舆论场的焦点，悄然间改变着世人看 待中国的眼光。这一中国观的变化来之不易。近代中国积贫积弱，国家蒙辱、人民蒙难、文明蒙尘，以 至于世界对古老中华文明的认识也不免失真。其中，所谓中国"不懂创新"就是一种影响颇远的误读。 事实上，岁月长河始终闪耀着中华民族创新创造的熠熠光辉。5000多年文明发展进程中，中华民族为世 界贡献了大量科技创新成果，对人类文明进步影响深远。英国学者李约瑟在《中国科学技术史》中从A 到Z列举了中国古代传入欧洲等地的26项重要发明，表示"26个字母用完，但还有很多例子"，充分肯定 中国的创造精神。 循文化的根基才能辨识当今的中国。在国际社会普遍认为中国对世界未来影响将不断上升的今天，从文 明视角切入，形成一种更客观准确的中国观，尤具现实意义 近期，在一场关于《天工开物》的圆桌讨论会上，有学者将这部中国17世纪的工艺百科全书与人工智能 大模型DeepSeek联系起来，称其为"400年前的DeepSeek"。这一跨越时空的链接，为更好读懂今日中国 创新成势的文化土壤和历史滋养提供了启示。 "问渠那得清如许，为有源头活水来。"传承中华优秀传 ...

Core Viewpoint - Future industries are leading the technological revolution and represent a strategic high ground in global competition, encompassing areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biomanufacturing, and aerospace technology [1] Summary by Categories Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is the core engine driving the development of future industries, with breakthroughs in disruptive technologies being essential for progress. For instance, the "Nine Chapters No. 3" quantum computing prototype developed by the University of Science and Technology of China can solve Gaussian boson sampling problems one quintillion times faster than the fastest supercomputer globally, positioning China as a leader in the quantum computing sector [2] Policy Support - Policy support is crucial for the development of future industries, which are characterized by high investment, long cycles, and significant uncertainty. The Central Committee's recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasize the need for forward-looking layouts in future industries and the promotion of sectors like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communications as new economic growth points [2] Capital Empowerment - Sufficient and diverse capital supply is key to accelerating the transition of technologies from laboratories to markets, thereby forming future industries. China has established a multi-tiered capital market system, including the main board, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, New Third Board, and regional equity markets, enhancing the capital market's ability to support technological innovation and high-level self-reliance [2] Talent Development - Talent cultivation is a lasting driving force for future industries, as competition fundamentally revolves around high-end talent. There is a growing need for interdisciplinary talent who understand both fundamental research and industrial applications. Cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou are implementing talent introduction policies to support core R&D personnel in future industries, with financial incentives of up to 500,000 yuan [3] Systematic Integration - The development of future industries is not merely a combination of the four core elements but requires a collaborative and integrated approach. For example, technological innovation provides value targets for capital empowerment, while policy support and talent development facilitate continuous breakthroughs in technological innovation [3]

Group 1: Quantum Computing Advantages - Quantum computing offers exponential growth in computational power compared to classical computing, which faces linear growth limitations [2][3] - Quantum tunneling in superconducting quantum computing avoids the bottlenecks faced by classical electronics at the nanoscale [4] - Quantum computing can address heat dissipation issues inherent in classical computing, allowing for more efficient processing [5] Group 2: Current Focus on Quantum Computing - Global investments in quantum computing have surged, with countries viewing it as a strategic priority [7] - The U.S. has identified quantum computing as a top research priority, marking 2027 as a critical turning point for industrial applications [8] - Recent export controls on quantum technology by developed nations indicate a significant shift in the industry [10] Group 3: Major Investments and Developments - NVIDIA has made substantial investments in leading quantum companies, signaling a shift towards commercialization in the quantum computing sector [12][14] - Quantinuum, backed by Honeywell, achieved a valuation of $10 billion after a $600 million funding round, indicating strong market confidence [14][52] - Bluefors has secured a significant order for helium-3, essential for quantum computing equipment, highlighting the growing demand for quantum technologies [14] Group 4: Quantum Computing Technology Paths - The six main technology paths in quantum computing include superconducting, trapped ions, photonic, neutral atoms, spin, and topological qubits, each with unique advantages and challenges [15][18] - Photonic quantum computing utilizes photons for information processing, offering long coherence times and room temperature operation, which reduces costs [21][23] - Neutral atom quantum computing has demonstrated rapid scalability, with Atom Computing announcing a prototype with 1,225 atoms, the first to exceed 1,000 qubits [29] Group 5: Major Players in Quantum Computing - IBM leads in superconducting qubits, with plans for a 2000-qubit system by 2033, focusing on error correction and high-performance computing integration [37][39] - Google is advancing in quantum error correction, achieving significant milestones with its Willow chip, aiming for a million physical qubit processor by 2030 [41] - Microsoft is pursuing a high-risk, high-reward strategy with topological quantum computing, recently releasing the Majorana 1 chip [42][44] - D-Wave has successfully commercialized quantum annealing, showing strong revenue growth and profitability potential [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant breakthrough in quantum computing, where a team led by Pan Jianwei successfully constructed a defect-free atomic array of 2024 atoms in just 60 milliseconds, setting a new world record in neutral atom systems [1][6][14]. Group 1: Research Achievements - The research team utilized AI technology to achieve a high degree of parallelism in rearranging atoms, overcoming previous limitations in traditional methods that restricted the scale of atomic arrays to hundreds of atoms [12][14]. - The system has achieved single-qubit gate fidelity of 99.97%, two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, and detection fidelity of 99.92%, matching the highest international standards represented by Harvard University [6][14]. - The results of this research have been published in the international journal "Physical Review Letters" and highlighted by the American Physical Society [4]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - The new rearrangement technique allows for the rapid reconfiguration of thousands of atoms, demonstrated through a video featuring Schrödinger's cat, showcasing the dynamic arrangement of rubidium atoms in a 230×230μm optical trap array [2][8]. - The research indicates that expanding the atomic array from 2024 to tens of thousands is feasible from a computational perspective, although practical implementation requires advancements in laser power and overall platform capabilities [14]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The article suggests that while the current advancements are significant, achieving a fully functional universal quantum computer may take an additional 10 years for large-scale applications like cryptography [14]. - The collaboration involves top teams in the quantum computing field, including the Shanghai Quantum Science Research Center and the University of Science and Technology of China [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights China's continuous innovation breakthroughs, marked by significant achievements such as the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier Fujian, the operational commencement of the world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant, and the commercial flight of the C919 aircraft [1][3]. - The innovation breakthroughs are attributed to a systematic strategic framework that enhances the efficiency of basic research transfer and transformation, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.68% and the proportion of basic research increasing to 12.3% by 2024 [3][4]. - The collaborative effort across society is emphasized, where government, enterprises, research institutions, and markets work in sync to drive innovation, exemplified by the continuous advancements in the electric vehicle industry, which has led to China maintaining the world's largest production and sales of new energy vehicles for ten consecutive years [4][6]. Group 2 - The sustainable supply of talent is identified as a key driver of innovation, with China having the largest total human resources and R&D personnel globally, producing over 5 million graduates annually in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [6][7]. - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, innovation is positioned as the core driving force for high-quality development, with a focus on strengthening basic research, enhancing collaborative innovation, and building a robust talent pipeline to ensure continuous innovation momentum [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the quantum computing industry, particularly focusing on the photonic quantum technology route [5]. Core Insights - Photonic quantum technology is one of the important routes in quantum computing, offering unique competitive advantages such as room temperature operation, long coherence times, and compatibility with existing fiber optic communication infrastructure [1][12]. - The research intensity in photonic quantum technology is high, with a gradually forming industrial ecosystem. As of September 2023, superconducting routes lead in patent applications at 51%, while photonic quantum routes account for 21% [2][16]. - Significant advancements have been made in both domestic and international research, with notable developments from companies like Xanadu and PsiQuantum, including the launch of scalable quantum computers [3][20][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Photonic Quantum as an Important Technology Route - Quantum computing, alongside quantum communication and quantum precision measurement, forms the three major fields of quantum information technology. It utilizes quantum phenomena to achieve information processing [9]. - The photonic quantum route is characterized by its ability to operate at room temperature and maintain long coherence times, making it suitable for distributed quantum computing networks [12][14]. 2. High Research Intensity and Industrial Ecosystem Formation - The photonic quantum computing industry includes four key segments: underlying support systems, photonic quantum computing prototypes, software, and application services. Major players include Xanadu and PsiQuantum [2][17]. - The development models of photonic quantum companies can be categorized into two types: full-stack development and hardware processor design [2][17]. 3. Accelerated Development of Photonic Quantum Technology - Companies like Xanadu and PsiQuantum have made significant progress in photonic quantum technology, with Xanadu planning to establish a quantum data center by 2029, deploying thousands of servers with 1 million qubits [3][20]. - In October 2023, China successfully built a 255-photon quantum computing prototype, "Jiuzhang 3," achieving a speed improvement of one million times over its predecessor [33]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovations in quantum computing and highlights key companies such as Guoshun Quantum and Hexin Instruments as core investment targets. It also recommends attention to quantum encryption communication companies [4][43].

Core Viewpoint - Quantum and photonic computing possess significant computational advantages over traditional computing, especially in the context of the exponential growth in computational reasoning demands driven by AI. The commercialization of quantum computing is expected to accelerate with advancements from leading global companies like Google and IBM, as well as domestic innovations such as Wukong, Nine Chapters No. 3, and Zu Chongzhi No. 3 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Quantum and Photonic Computing Advantages - Quantum computing utilizes quantum bits (qubits) and can achieve exponential speedup over classical computers in specific problems, such as large number factorization and quantum chemistry simulations. For instance, Google's Willow chip, equipped with 53 qubits, can compute in a dimension of 2^53 [3][11]. - Photonic computing offers higher information capacity, efficiency, and parallelism compared to traditional electronic computing, making it advantageous for solving complex problems [3][14]. Group 2: Technological Pathways - Various technological pathways for quantum and photonic computing are rapidly evolving, including superconducting quantum computing, photonic computing, ion traps, neutral atoms, semiconductors, and topological computing. Superconducting quantum computing is currently the most mainstream approach, with products from companies like IBM and Google [4][18]. - The development of quantum computing technologies is characterized by a competitive landscape, with significant advancements in superconducting, ion trap, and photonic technologies [18][19]. Group 3: Industry Developments and Collaborations - NVIDIA has launched a "Quantum Day" at its GTC conference, inviting CEOs from 12 quantum computing companies to discuss advancements and applications of quantum technology in AI. NVIDIA also announced the establishment of a quantum computing research lab in Boston, collaborating with top universities [3][7][9]. - Major companies like Google, IBM, and Microsoft are making significant strides in quantum computing, with Google focusing on superconducting quantum computing and recently introducing the Willow chip with 105 qubits [40][41][47][48]. Group 4: Domestic Innovations - The "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computer developed by the University of Science and Technology of China has achieved 105 qubits, demonstrating high fidelity in quantum operations [54]. - The "Nine Chapters" series, led by the University of Science and Technology of China, has made significant advancements in photonic quantum computing, with the latest prototype achieving control over 255 photons, setting a new record in quantum computing superiority [56].