Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a potential "small spring" recovery in key cities during 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a new phase focused on stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, with a gradual release of pent-up demand expected as holiday factors dissipate [5][7]. - During the 2026 Spring Festival, key cities experienced typical seasonal low transaction volumes, with new residential sales in 21 major cities totaling approximately 100,000 square meters, showing a slight decrease of 2% compared to the previous year [4][7]. - Various promotional activities were launched by real estate companies during the holiday, contributing to a buildup of market momentum for the upcoming recovery [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - In Shanghai, new home sales increased significantly due to favorable policies and strong promotional efforts by developers [4][13]. - Beijing's core projects maintained high interest, while second-hand home viewings were affected by travel and returning home for the holidays [12][13]. - In Guangzhou, over 140 projects offered promotions, leading to increased visitor numbers, particularly from returning residents [14]. - Shenzhen saw over 30 new projects with substantial discounts and promotional offers, attracting interest from both local and Hong Kong buyers [14]. - Chengdu's market remained subdued, with limited new supply and a focus on promotional activities for returning home buyers [16]. - Wuhan initiated a "Warm Home" campaign to stimulate demand, but overall market activity was cautious [17]. - In Tianjin, the new home market focused on inventory digestion, while the second-hand market showed signs of recovery driven by school district demand [19]. - Zhengzhou's market saw increased activity due to promotional efforts and favorable weather conditions, with core areas performing well [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sale of a property in Xiamen at a significantly reduced price has sparked concerns about a potential collapse in the local real estate market, with many observers suggesting that Xiamen's housing prices have plummeted dramatically over the past few years [1][3]. Price Trends - A property in the "Lian Yue Li" community sold for 1.6 million yuan (approximately 160,000,000 CNY) at a price of 25,712 yuan per square meter, a stark contrast to the 4.436 million yuan (approximately 443,600,000 CNY) price for the same type of unit in June 2022, indicating a 65.8% drop in price [3]. - The average price of new residential properties in Xiamen has fallen to 39,383 yuan per square meter as of October 2023, down from previous averages of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan per square meter [9]. - The average listing price for second-hand residential properties has also decreased to below 35,000 yuan per square meter, currently at 34,978 yuan [9]. Market Dynamics - Xiamen's real estate market has been characterized by high prices relative to its economic standing, with the city ranking around 30th in GDP among Chinese cities, yet maintaining high property prices that are not reflective of its economic fundamentals [5]. - The price decline has been particularly pronounced in the island area, with some regions experiencing drops of over 20% from previous highs [11]. - Observers note that the lack of industrial development and economic drivers in Xiamen may lead to further declines in property values, with some predicting prices could drop to around 10,000 yuan per square meter in the coming years [13][14].

Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a significant adjustment in the real estate market, with only 6 cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices, the lowest since the implementation of major policies last September [1] - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties fell by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, highlighting a weakening effect of the "price for volume" strategy [1] - The area of new housing starts saw a substantial decline of 19.4%, further exacerbating market pessimism [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Cities - Shanghai stands out as the only first-tier city with a continuous month-on-month increase in new residential property prices for 10 consecutive months, with July sales reaching 31.4 billion yuan, where luxury properties contributed 41% of total sales [4] - In contrast, Beijing's market remains weak despite some luxury projects boosting sales, while Guangzhou has not seen any month-on-month price increases for 10 months, and Shenzhen continues to experience a widening decline [4] - Among 31 major second-tier cities, only Urumqi and Changchun reported month-on-month price increases, with cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou also facing declines [4] Group 3: Policy Responses - Despite efforts from central and local governments to stabilize the market, the response has been lukewarm, with policies such as expanding affordable housing supply in population inflow cities failing to reverse the downward trend [5] - Beijing's recent easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road did not address more impactful measures like core area restrictions or mortgage rates, leading to perceptions of passive rather than proactive policy adjustments [5] - The recovery of market confidence faces multiple challenges, including limited effectiveness of the "price for volume" strategy in the second-hand market and weak demand in the new housing market [5]