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贝壳-W:营收稳健增长,经调整利润略超预期-20250516
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-16 07:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.4%, with adjusted net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [8] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) reached 843.7 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year, indicating stable revenue growth [8] - The report highlights a decline in gross margin by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin existing home business revenue and an increase in fixed salary costs [8] - The number of active stores and agents has expanded significantly, with active stores increasing by 29.6% year-on-year to 55,000 and active agents growing by 23.0% to 490,000 [8] - The new home business saw a transaction value of 232.2 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 53.0% year-on-year, with commission rates improving by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% [8] - The home decoration business is steadily growing, with profit margins increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 32.6% [8] - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 at 9.7 billion, 11.6 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 2.36, and 2.91 yuan, and adjusted PE ratios of 16.3X, 14.4X, and 12.3X [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 77.8 billion, 93.5 billion, 109.6 billion, 127.5 billion, and 147.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.20%, 20.16%, 17.30%, 16.30%, and 15.60% [1] - The company's net profit for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected at 5.9 billion, 4.1 billion, 6.6 billion, 8.5 billion, and 10.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 524.45%, -30.91%, 62.10%, 28.96%, and 23.48% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same periods are 9.8 billion, 7.2 billion, 9.7 billion, 11.6 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 244.70%, -26.41%, 34.53%, 19.73%, and 17.23% [1]