Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week's macro data is positive. Social financing and export data both exceeded expectations, and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached a new high for a single month in the past 10 years. The improvement in corporate credit and strong export performance indicate an economic recovery. The commodity market has cooled down, and the bond market has entered a relatively balanced range [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Continued to Improve, Corporate Credit Improved, and Exports Were Strong - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate was higher than expected, with loan components providing support and a significant improvement in corporate credit. New social financing in December was 22,080 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%. Corporate short-term loans were stronger than seasonal trends, and medium- and long-term loans improved year-on-year [9] - Exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the full-year increase was 5.5%, both significantly exceeding market expectations. The settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December reached the highest level for a single month since 2014, at 999.3 billion US dollars [2][9] - Historically, exchange rate appreciation is relatively beneficial to domestic assets. The central bank emphasized "preventing overshoot risks" in its recent statements [2][10] Commodity Market Pulled Back, and the Range of Rising Commodities "Narrowed" - Since the beginning of the year, commodities and equities have emerged in resonance, led by precious metals and non-ferrous metals. The Nanhua Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%. The market is mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and optimistic expectations for metals. The strength order is precious metals > non-ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > energy and chemicals [3][12] - After the Shanghai Stock Exchange raised the margin ratio for margin trading and the exchange introduced restrictions on some popular varieties, the commodity market cooled down. Only precious metals continued to rise, while the growth of non-ferrous metals slowed, and energy, chemicals, black metals, and agricultural products turned from rising to falling [3][14] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, there is an extreme style differentiation. Large-cap "value" varieties such as copper and aluminum are oscillating, lacking strong driving funds, while small-cap "growth" non-ferrous metals are highly elastic. Small metals are driven by supply factors, but their prices are volatile and difficult to sustain. Precious metals are mainly affected by geopolitical variables, with gold being less volatile than silver [3][16][19] Bond Market Entered a Relatively Balanced Range, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Differentiated Trends of Long-Term Bonds - Currently, the interest rate market has entered a relatively balanced range. The 30-year Treasury bond rate is around 2.3%, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate quickly returned to the central bank's desired range (around 1.85%) after a brief fluctuation [5][20] - For interest rate bonds, the short-term downward space is limited. Bond market sentiment has improved, and large banks have increased their purchases of 7 - 10-year bonds, which may indicate more policy easing. The profit of short-selling interest rate bonds has also decreased [5][20] - The strategy of short-selling local government bonds is attracting more attention, which may bring trading opportunities for widening spreads. The borrowing of local government bonds has increased, mainly due to concerns about supply and the narrowing of the spread between old local government bonds and old Treasury bonds [5][21] - For Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds, continuous buying is the key to the continuation of the market. Buying may come from dividend insurance and "fixed income +" accounts. However, for large institutional investors, the attractiveness of perpetual bonds is limited compared to equities at current levels. The allocation strength of "fixed income +" funds needs to be monitored [6][21]

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of redemptions for "perpetual bonds" and "subordinated bonds" issued by banks in 2020 has been observed since September, driven by banks' efforts to optimize their asset structures and improve capital adequacy in response to changing interest rate environments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Redemption Activity - As of September 25, 15 "perpetual bonds" have been redeemed, totaling 302.6 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than previous months [1][2]. - Notable redemptions include those by Bank of Communications and Dongying Bank, with redemption amounts of 30 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, at coupon rates of 4.59% and 4.80% [2]. - Predictions indicate that by September 30, at least 24 "perpetual bonds" will be redeemed, with a total redemption scale not less than 321 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The redemption of high-rate bonds is seen as a proactive measure by banks to enhance their capital structure and align with regulatory guidance, ultimately strengthening their risk resilience [3][4]. - The current redemption trend may lead to a temporary reduction in the supply of "perpetual bonds," potentially causing price fluctuations, but it is expected to guide funds towards high-quality enterprises and lower financing costs for the real economy [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rates of the redeemed "perpetual bonds" range from 4.20% to 5.40%, while newly issued bonds this year have rates mostly between 1.88% and 2.90% [4]. - Banks' actions reflect their accurate predictions regarding market interest rate trends, as they seek to release funds for more profitable asset allocations during a declining interest rate cycle [4]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - In addition to redeeming "perpetual bonds," mid-sized banks are encouraged to strengthen their capital base through strategic investors or capital increases, and to utilize financial instruments like preferred shares and convertible bonds for better capital structure optimization [5].

二季度以来，商业银行二永债(二级资本债和永续债)发行规模明显增加，包括国有大行、股份行、城商 行在内的各类商业银行"补血"动作频频。数据显示，截至6月26日记者发稿时，今年以来商业银行二永 债发行规模合计突破8000亿元。其中，二季度以来发行量超6000亿元，环比增长260.82%。业内人士认 为，近年来，在商业银行盈利能力下降、利润留存补充资本空间缩窄的情况下，发行二永债可以通过外 源性渠道丰富资本金来源，提升经营的稳健性。(中证报) ...