【潮起潮落皆为势，低吸高抛方为智】 势者，顺之则昌，逆之则亡；金市沉浮，唯择势者胜。 周四晚间黄金上演冲高回落大跳水的行情，触及4801后冲高4907开始跳水，隔夜来到4655。美盘前公开给出回落4800附近直接多，行情回落两次触及反弹都 有不错的利润。隔夜实战4690精准抄底多，目前已经来到了4760，一大早迎来开门红，早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 回落4600附近多，深度回撤4400附近还是多 反弹4930-50区域不破轻仓试空 意外关注实时走势分析 昨日晚间这波暴跌主要是因为纳斯达克暴跌引发的市场流动性危机，叠加美联储鹰派预期、获利了结等等因素。今日晚间有非农数据，叠加周五行情易出单 边、变数较多，操作上更需谨慎对待。 日内还是回落做多为主，之前有说过这两日会出一个低点倒车接人，走势基本上符合预期。一直提醒大家不回调坚决不做多，谨慎是有原因的。下方支撑关 注4600附近，接近不破直接多，站稳这里黄金牛市趋势延续，上方目标剑指4800--4900-5000。下方跌破4400，空头趋势才会进一步延续。上方阻力短期关注 4930-50区域，不破轻仓试空。昨日的回撤大概率不会快速消化，黄金上涨之路或坎坷，切勿盲目追涨杀跌 ...

早上好，先来关注下美伊谈判。 中东多国紧急游说美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。据悉，此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的 担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消 会议。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于6日上午10点左 右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 当天稍早前，有伊朗官方消息人士称，原定于6日在阿曼举行的伊美谈判已经取消。该消息人士表示，取消会谈的原 因是美方对会谈施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会谈地点的问题。 受此影响，国际油价日内大幅波动。布伦特原油期货价格在周四凌晨1点30分猛然拉涨超3%后，又在4点左右显著回 落。截至发稿，布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.13%。 据央视新闻消息，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体11名民主党人3日致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟候任 美联储主席凯文·沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week's macro data is positive. Social financing and export data both exceeded expectations, and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached a new high for a single month in the past 10 years. The improvement in corporate credit and strong export performance indicate an economic recovery. The commodity market has cooled down, and the bond market has entered a relatively balanced range [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Continued to Improve, Corporate Credit Improved, and Exports Were Strong - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate was higher than expected, with loan components providing support and a significant improvement in corporate credit. New social financing in December was 22,080 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%. Corporate short-term loans were stronger than seasonal trends, and medium- and long-term loans improved year-on-year [9] - Exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the full-year increase was 5.5%, both significantly exceeding market expectations. The settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December reached the highest level for a single month since 2014, at 999.3 billion US dollars [2][9] - Historically, exchange rate appreciation is relatively beneficial to domestic assets. The central bank emphasized "preventing overshoot risks" in its recent statements [2][10] Commodity Market Pulled Back, and the Range of Rising Commodities "Narrowed" - Since the beginning of the year, commodities and equities have emerged in resonance, led by precious metals and non-ferrous metals. The Nanhua Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%. The market is mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and optimistic expectations for metals. The strength order is precious metals > non-ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > energy and chemicals [3][12] - After the Shanghai Stock Exchange raised the margin ratio for margin trading and the exchange introduced restrictions on some popular varieties, the commodity market cooled down. Only precious metals continued to rise, while the growth of non-ferrous metals slowed, and energy, chemicals, black metals, and agricultural products turned from rising to falling [3][14] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, there is an extreme style differentiation. Large-cap "value" varieties such as copper and aluminum are oscillating, lacking strong driving funds, while small-cap "growth" non-ferrous metals are highly elastic. Small metals are driven by supply factors, but their prices are volatile and difficult to sustain. Precious metals are mainly affected by geopolitical variables, with gold being less volatile than silver [3][16][19] Bond Market Entered a Relatively Balanced Range, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Differentiated Trends of Long-Term Bonds - Currently, the interest rate market has entered a relatively balanced range. The 30-year Treasury bond rate is around 2.3%, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate quickly returned to the central bank's desired range (around 1.85%) after a brief fluctuation [5][20] - For interest rate bonds, the short-term downward space is limited. Bond market sentiment has improved, and large banks have increased their purchases of 7 - 10-year bonds, which may indicate more policy easing. The profit of short-selling interest rate bonds has also decreased [5][20] - The strategy of short-selling local government bonds is attracting more attention, which may bring trading opportunities for widening spreads. The borrowing of local government bonds has increased, mainly due to concerns about supply and the narrowing of the spread between old local government bonds and old Treasury bonds [5][21] - For Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds, continuous buying is the key to the continuation of the market. Buying may come from dividend insurance and "fixed income +" accounts. However, for large institutional investors, the attractiveness of perpetual bonds is limited compared to equities at current levels. The allocation strength of "fixed income +" funds needs to be monitored [6][21]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4634.33 per ounce on January 14 but quickly retreated to around $4586, raising investor concerns about the potential end of the gold bull market [1][5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, both below analyst expectations [1][5] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also underperforming against forecasts [1][5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with a 27.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in March [1][5] Market Reactions - Despite the favorable inflation data for gold bulls, the market's reaction was mixed, indicating concerns about economic cooling and the Fed's cautious approach [2][6] - U.S. Treasury yields saw a mild decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.175% and the 30-year yield at 4.823%, but this did not translate into strong support for gold [7] - The breakeven yields for five-year and ten-year inflation-protected securities rose to 2.368% and 2.3%, suggesting that the market expects future inflation to be manageable, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [7] Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.3% to 99.18, bolstered by strong employment data from the previous week [3][7] - Following the inflation data release, the dollar initially dipped but quickly regained strength, enhancing its attractiveness against other currencies [3][7] - A strong dollar increases the holding cost of gold priced in dollars, pressuring international buyers and contributing to the price drop from record highs [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, indicating weakened rebound momentum, yet remain above the mid-range and short-term moving averages, suggesting a bullish advantage and potential re-entry opportunity for investors [1] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,495.54 per ounce, reached a daily high of $4,500.27, then encountered resistance and declined, recording a daily low of $4,423.39 before closing at $4,456.29, with a daily fluctuation of $76.88, ultimately down by $39.25 or 0.87% [3] - The decline was influenced by profit-taking at the $4,500 resistance level, but support buying and weaker-than-expected "non-farm payroll" data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside central banks of major Asian countries increasing gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month [3] Market Outlook - On January 9, gold opened slightly higher and experienced fluctuations, constrained by the previous day's decline and a strengthening U.S. dollar index; however, the outlook remains bullish for gold prices, with limited pressure despite the dollar's rebound nearing resistance levels [3]

Core Insights - Platinum futures reached the daily limit on December 23, 2025, marking the fourth time since its listing and have increased over 50% since then [3][8] Group 1: Market Performance - The strong performance of platinum group metals continues, supported by overall sentiment in the precious metals sector and capital rotation [5][10] - The market has entered a phase of high volatility and sensitivity following significant price increases and new highs [10] Group 2: Economic Factors - Despite a slightly cautious tone from Federal Reserve Governor Milan, expectations for long-term monetary easing remain unchanged, contributing to the investment logic for precious metals including platinum and palladium [5][10] - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide a backdrop for the demand for precious metals [5][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a strong performance, but there is a need to be cautious of potential market corrections due to overheating sentiment and profit-taking [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have surged, driven by macroeconomic liquidity and tightening supply in the physical market, with platinum futures reaching 568.45 CNY per gram and palladium futures at 508.45 CNY per gram, marking increases of 6.99% and 7% respectively [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties are key supports for the price increases of platinum and palladium [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of downward risk, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, which may further support the Fed's easing measures [2] - Inflation is gradually receding, with the core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap of 46.4 tons by 2025, providing upward momentum for prices [3] - The palladium market has shifted to a state of oversupply, with expectations of a further increase in surplus to approximately 16.9 tons by 2026, which may exert downward pressure on prices [3] - The demand for platinum is supported by its applications in hydrogen energy and stable industrial uses, despite structural impacts from electric vehicle developments [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current price increases of platinum and palladium reflect strong macroeconomic expectations, but there is a risk of rapid corrections if market sentiment shifts [3][4] - The ongoing adjustments in the EU regarding the ban on fuel vehicles may improve future demand expectations for platinum and palladium [2] - In the absence of clear negative factors, precious metals are expected to maintain strength in the short term, although their volatility remains relatively low [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, maintaining levels near the highest point since October 21, driven by reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets due to overall optimism in global stock markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's adjustment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to support gold prices, with the dollar index dropping to a two-month low, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in certain regions are limiting the downside for gold, bolstering bullish sentiment [1] - The recent Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is a core driver of gold's price movements, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected in December and a forecast indicating only one more rate cut by 2026 [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has confirmed a breakout from a two-week trading range, with resistance levels identified between $4245 and $4250, indicating a clear bullish signal [2] - The daily oscillators are in a positive range and not yet overbought, suggesting further upward potential for gold prices [2] - Support levels have shifted, with the previous resistance area now acting as potential support between $4220 and $4218, and further support at $4200 and the $4170-$4165 range [4] Group 3: Price Levels - The immediate resistance level for gold is at $4300, with potential to advance towards the $4328-$4330 range upon breaking this level [4] - Sustained upward momentum could challenge the historical high of $4380 set in October, with a confirmation of an upward trend if gold remains above the $4400 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but are expected to strengthen further if they can break through current resistance levels [1][10]. Market Performance - On December 9, gold opened at $4190.42 per ounce, reached a low of $4170.19, and a high of $4221.09, closing at $4208.07, with a daily fluctuation of $50.9 and a gain of $17.65, or 0.42% [1][10]. Market Outlook - On December 10, gold opened strong, supported by buying interest and a weaker dollar index, but market movements are limited as investors await guidance from the Federal Reserve [2][12]. Influencing Factors - Factors such as potential tariff reductions by Trump, positive U.S. employment data, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are influencing gold prices. Optimism regarding future Fed rate cuts is providing support for gold despite a stronger dollar [4][12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that market caution ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting is keeping gold prices in a range. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices post-announcement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to continued central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [5][14]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, but December's momentum is weakening. Gold needs to break above $4400 to open further upside potential. Weekly indicators show reduced bullish momentum, while daily charts suggest a mixed outlook with key resistance at $4265 and support levels around $4200 and $4180 [7][16][17]. Trading Guidance - For trading, key support levels for gold are noted at $4200 and $4180, with resistance at $4230 and $4255. Silver support is at $60.40 and $59.40, with resistance at $61.50 and $62.00 [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing fluctuations and is currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for further upward movement, but it must break through the current trendline resistance to avoid a pullback [1][5]. Market Performance - On December 9, gold opened at $4190.42 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4170.19, and then rebounded to a high of $4221.09 before closing at $4208.07, marking a daily increase of $17.65 or 0.42% with a trading range of $50.9 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Factors such as Trump's potential tariff reductions on high-priced goods and positive U.S. employment data have strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. However, ongoing buying support and trader optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts have limited the dollar's upward momentum, providing support for gold [3][5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand, further supporting gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations of a hawkish rate cut, which has led to a slight increase in the dollar index and a continuation of gold's fluctuating adjustments [5]. - It is anticipated that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, but the focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's tone post-meeting, which may convey a hawkish signal to stabilize the dollar while maintaining flexibility for future actions [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows a strong rebound in November, recovering most of October's losses, which enhances the bullish outlook for future highs. However, December's momentum appears weaker, with a need to break above $4400 to open further upward space [6][8]. - Weekly indicators suggest a decrease in bullish momentum, but the main chart remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating potential for renewed strength. Short-term support levels are being monitored for bullish entry points [8][10]. - Daily trends indicate that gold remains in a fluctuating pattern, with short-term advantages for bulls, but direction remains unclear. Key resistance levels are at $4265, while support is noted around $4200 or $4180 [10][11].