首席点评： 连续 14 个月增加黄金储备 截至 2025 年 12 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33579 亿美元，环比上升 115 亿美元， 再创 2015 年 12 月以来新高；黄金储备规模为 7415 万盎司，环比增加 3 万盎司， 为连续第 14 个月增加。央行公告，1 月 8 日将开展 11000 亿元 3 个月期买断式 逆回购操作，连续第三个月等量续作。中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，全球制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，较上月微幅下降 0.1 个百分点，连续 10 个月运行在 49%-50%的区间内。美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。ADP 数据显示，美国企业 12 月私 营部门就业人数增加 4.1 万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。 重点品种：黄金、股指 贵金属：贵金属震荡整理。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 ...

中国人民银行副行长陆磊发文称，《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》从机 制上明确了数字人民币将从数字现金时代迈入数字存款货币（ Digital Deposit Money ）时代。特朗普暗示，他已经有了一 位心目中的美联储下一任主席人选，但并不急于宣布，可能会在 1 月宣布。特朗普承认，乌克兰领土问题实际上"仍未谈 妥"，顿巴斯地区的非军事化区划设等"棘手"问题尚待解决。日本央行 12 月政策会议纪要显示，多位委员认为该国实际利 率仍处于极低水平，暗示未来将继续加息。 重点品种：贵金属， 股指，铜 首席点评： 贵金属集体回调 股指 ： 美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指冲高回落，石油石化板块领涨，有色金属板块领跌，市场成交额 2.16 万亿 元。资金方面， 12 月 26 日融资余额减少 20.37 亿元至 25264.62 亿元。 2025 年 12 月 26 日国家发改委发表《大力推 动传统产业优化提升》，对钢材、石化等原材料产业实现供需平衡、结构优化。我们预计供给侧改革可能会推升大宗 商品的价格并带动资源型股票上涨。 12 月以来人民币兑美元加速升值， 12 月 24 ...

Market Overview - The market has shown significant divergence in asset performance, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 leading gains, while the Northbound 50 has seen notable declines, indicating a shift in investment strategies [2] - The performance of various sectors has varied, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics showing strong gains, while textiles, coal, banking, and transportation have lagged [2] - The current market is at a crossroads, entering a period of platform adjustment after a previous upward trend [2] Industry Trends - By 2025, China is expected to enter a new phase of risk asset revaluation, driven by increased economic pressure in the U.S. and internal changes in China that alter market participants' expectations [3] - The structure of the market is influenced by capital market ecology and industrial policies, particularly in the context of the "PRINCE" characteristics that future dominant industries should possess [3][6] - The profitability of industrial enterprises has shown a decline overall, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a 7.5% drop in profits, while private enterprises have seen a slight increase of 1.8% [5][6] Profitability Insights - The overall decline in profits among industrial enterprises suggests insufficient support for risk assets, which is a key reason for the lack of a complete shift in asset allocation trends [6] - The disparity in profitability between state-owned and private enterprises indicates a potential shift in the effectiveness of the "barbell strategy" in investment [6] Economic Indicators - The Citi Economic Surprise Index has turned negative since mid-August, indicating a divergence between actual economic performance and market expectations, which could affect investor confidence [7] - The nominal GDP comparison between China and the U.S. shows a widening gap, influenced by low prices and demand, which is critical for global asset allocation [8] - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, slightly below expectations, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing activity but still reflecting underlying economic challenges [9] Future Outlook - The focus on corporate profitability is essential as the market transitions into the next phase, with particular attention on leading companies as indicators of market changes [10] - The analysis will consider various factors, including entrepreneurial spirit, global supply chains, and growth cycles, to assess future profitability scenarios [10]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Sector Industry Overview - The real estate sector is currently viewed as having potential for a rebound due to previous underperformance compared to other sectors, making it a rational choice for investment at this time [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The market has experienced significant fluctuations since mid-April, with high-positioned sectors undergoing adjustments while lower-positioned sectors, including real estate, are expected to see a rebound [2]. - **Investment Style Shift**: The dominance of large-cap growth stocks is diminishing, while the disadvantages of large-cap value stocks are also decreasing. Real estate, categorized under large-cap value, is likely to attract more investor interest during upward cycles [1][2][4]. - **Technical Indicators**: The real estate index is near its annual moving average, indicating limited downward pressure and significant upward potential. The index has shown a positive performance recently, with a bullish market outlook [1][6][7]. - **Performance Comparison**: From April 8 to August 1, 2025, the real estate sector's growth of 13.2% was lower than that of non-bank financials (22.9%) and banks (16.1%), ranking 25th among primary industries, suggesting room for improvement [8]. - **Sector Differentiation**: The real estate industry has shown significant differentiation this year, with Shenzhen's property index stabilizing despite policy expectations not being met. Factors such as changing market expectations and liquidity injections are aiding valuation recovery [9]. - **Future Policy Expectations**: While current fundamentals and policy catalysts are not strong, significant policy announcements are anticipated in September and October, which could lead to a market rally similar to that seen in June and July [10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended investments include leading state-owned enterprises like China Resources Land, which are expected to perform well regardless of policy support, and companies with low inventory burdens like Jianfa International. Additionally, companies focused on commercial management are also suggested for long-term valuation recovery [12]. Other Important Insights - **Currency Impact**: The expectation of RMB appreciation is seen as a positive factor for A-shares, historically correlating with strong market performance during previous appreciation periods [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The recent increase in margin trading balances indicates a sustained bullish sentiment among investors, further supporting the case for investing in lower-positioned sectors like real estate [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the real estate sector, highlighting its potential for recovery and the strategic considerations for investors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if expectations for the appreciation of the Renminbi increase, investors may prefer Chinese government bonds, with trade negotiation outcomes being a key influencing factor [1][12] - The U.S. fiscal situation remains concerning, with a projected fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 6.28% in 2024, and estimates suggesting it could rise to 7% by 2026 [4][5] - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating aligns with previous actions by other agencies, indicating market unease regarding rising government debt levels [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in implementing preemptive rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, with a forecasted inflation rate of 3.5% in Q4, significantly above the current 2.4% [7][8] - Tariff policies are expected to have dual effects, potentially raising prices and suppressing economic growth, with inflation likely to manifest before economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar is expected to weaken against major currencies, with predictions of the euro reaching 1.20 against the dollar by year-end, as investors seek diversification away from U.S. assets [10][11] Group 3 - The Chinese bond market is gradually attracting more foreign investors, and while current yields are low, an increase in Renminbi appreciation expectations could enhance the appeal of Chinese government bonds [12]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that if expectations for the appreciation of the Renminbi increase, investors may show a greater preference for Chinese government bonds, with trade negotiation outcomes being a key influencing factor [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Luis Oganes, the global macro research head at Morgan Stanley, indicated that uncertainties arising from tariffs may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to implement preemptive rate cuts, thereby supporting the Euro and Asian currencies [1] - The ongoing internationalization of the Renminbi is gradually attracting more foreign investors to the Chinese bond market [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - Despite the current low yields on Chinese bonds, an increase in expectations for Renminbi appreciation could lead investors to favor Chinese government bonds [1] - Global investors may reduce their overweight positions in U.S. assets as a result of these dynamics [1]