到港增量、库存累库，原木现货企稳 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 基本面：供应端，新西兰受圣诞节假期影响发运阶段性下滑，但中国 13 港新西兰原木到港量 47.9 万方，周环比增 17%，山东到港 集中而江苏偏紧；1 月外盘价降至 110 美金 / JAS 方，贸易商春节备货带动外盘成交较好。需求端，建筑口料需求平淡，但山东集成材出 货走俏，13 港日均出库量 5.65 万方，周环比降 3.09%；建筑工地资金到位率回落，新项目占用资金及存量项目回款下滑影响采购。库存 端总库存 267 万方，周环比增 5.12%，辐射松、北美材库存增长，云杉 / 冷杉库存减少，山东、江苏等核心省份库存均有增加。 【逻辑分析】 价格方面，江苏 6 米原木因货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the log market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory de - stocking slow and the fundamentals remaining loose. The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, but its valuation repair is restricted by the weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upside potential [5][6][39] - The report recommends three investment strategies: for single - side trading, go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities; for arbitrage, focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern. New Zealand's September shipment was 1.766 million cubic meters (+6%), and the first four - week departure in October was 1.34 million cubic meters, still 8% higher year - on - year. The full - month estimate was 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a new high for the year. The inventory of 13 domestic ports first increased and then decreased, reaching 2.94 million cubic meters at the end of the month, 22% higher year - on - year. The demand side was generally "lackluster in the peak season." The average daily port delivery was 61,600 cubic meters, a slight 1.4% month - on - month decrease and 11% year - on - year decrease. The real estate capital availability rate hovered at 59.6%, and the cumulative new housing starts were - 21%. The United States imposed a 10% - 25% tariff on softwood and cabinets starting from October 14, causing export orders in the Yangtze River Delta to decline [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, with the futures price significantly lower than the Shandong warehouse receipt cost and also in an inverted relationship with the duty - paid cost calculated from the November New Zealand radiata pine CFR quote. However, the valuation repair is restricted by the fundamentals, as port inventory remains high, supply pressure may continue to be released in November, and the demand side is lackluster in the peak season, with the average daily delivery volume declining year - on - year [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities. Arbitrage: Focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Options: Sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiata pine: The log market was "warm externally and cold internally," with prices showing a trend of "initially stable and then secretly decreasing." The domestic and imported radiata pine prices moved basically in sync, while the sawn timber prices declined continuously due to weak terminal demand. The cost of imports increased, leading to a sharp drop in domestic ship - booking willingness and a 40% month - on - month decrease in new orders at the end of October [11][12] - Spruce/fir: In October, the spruce - fir market was characterized by "external price concessions, rising spot prices, and stable sawn timber prices." The European suppliers lowered their quotes, but the depreciation of the RMB against the euro offset most of the decline. The spot prices rose due to the shortage of large - diameter timber at ports, and the sawn timber prices remained stable, with processing profits being better than those of radiata pine [13][16] 3.2.2 Futures Market Review - As of October 31, 2025, the main log futures contract LG2601 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a significant downward shift in the price center compared to the beginning of the month. It was mainly influenced by the reversal of policy expectations, the weak supply - demand pattern, and market sentiment changes [20] 3.2.3 Supply Increase and High Inventory - Overseas shipment: The New Zealand log departure volume remained high in October, but the growth rate slowed down marginally. The export was mainly targeted at China, accounting for over 75%, and the shipping cost fluctuations also affected the shipment rhythm [25] - Domestic arrival: The New Zealand log arrival volume in October showed a "low - then - high" pulsed rhythm. The total arrival volume in October was expected to reach 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a 20% increase from September, a new high for the year. The mismatch between high arrival and weak demand intensified the port inventory pressure [26] - Inventory change: The domestic log inventory in October showed a trend of "first accumulating and then decreasing," with the end - of - month total still higher than that at the end of September. Although there was marginal de - stocking in the middle and late October, the total inventory was still over 20% higher than the previous year, and the regional structure imbalance was still prominent [29] 3.2.4 Weak Real Estate, Low Delivery, and Weak Demand - Real estate demand: In October, the commercial housing transaction area declined month - on - month, and the new housing start - up willingness of real estate enterprises remained at a low level. The capital availability rate of construction sites was low, and the wood square orders decreased by about 15% year - on - year. The real estate demand for logs was basically flat month - on - month and decreased by 20% year - on - year, with limited seasonal recovery before the end of the year [33] - Log delivery volume: The port delivery volume showed a trend of "rising first and then falling." The average daily delivery volume in October was 61,600 cubic meters, lower than the September average and 11% lower year - on - year. The "high arrival + low delivery" situation continued, and the port de - stocking speed was much slower than in previous years [35] - Other demand and policy changes: The demand for furniture and packaging materials both weakened. The United States imposed tariffs on cabinets and softwood logs, causing a 20% - 30% decline in export orders in the Yangtze River Delta. The domestic "trade - in" subsidy had a concentrated release in September, and the furniture retail sales increased year - on - year but had limited incremental demand for logs. Policy factors such as US tariffs and EU anti - dumping measures suppressed external demand, while domestic fiscal support for forest tending was beneficial for long - term supply but had no short - term demand increase [36] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern in October, and the demand side was "lackluster in the peak season." The supply - demand imbalance led to slow inventory de - stocking. The LG2601 contract is undervalued relative to cost, but the weak supply - demand pattern restricts its upside potential. The recommended strategies are the same as those in the preface summary [39][40]