1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery-grade 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 755 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 755 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9-meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 855 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9-meter 30+ radiata pine decreased by 5 yuan/cubic meter to 780 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 9, there were 11 vessels departing from New Zealand in November, with 10 bound for mainland China and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2658 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 346,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 42,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's was about 254,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 55,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 214,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 15,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 2,125 points, an increase of 21 points (+1.0%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was recorded at 819 points, an increase of 1.1% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,451.38 points, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has recently remained around 99 - 100. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.098, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 9, 11 vessels departed from New Zealand in November, with 10 going to mainland China and 1 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8] - A table shows the detailed information of New Zealand log vessel schedules, including departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [9] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports (Lanshan, Taicang, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu) was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] - A table provides detailed inventory and shipment data of domestic main ports, including inventory and shipment volume at different time points and changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 14, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 788.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The main contract on the futures market rebounded this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads (in absolute value) tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 7 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 21.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter [18] 3.4 Other - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,125 points (+1.0% week-on-week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 819 points (+1.1% week-on-week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,451.38 points (+3.6% week-on-week). The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.098 (-0.34% week-on-week), and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50] - A table presents the changes in freight rates and exchange rates, including the Baltic freight index, container shipping index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and RMB, and the US dollar and New Zealand dollar, compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [49]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the log market, covering supply, demand, inventory, price, and cost aspects, and provides trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current log valuation is in a relatively weak range, short - term neutral. Spot prices are stable with some decline in radiata pine. The high New Zealand FOB price may be adjusted, providing limited import cost support. Short - term high inventory and weak demand suppress valuation, but price may stabilize due to factors like traders' price - holding intention, reduced arrivals next week, and restored US log imports. In the long - term, if demand remains weak and North American log supply increases, valuation may stay weakly stable. Further downward price space is limited [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: New Zealand log arrivals were 571,000 cubic meters this week, up 16% week - on - week, but expected to decrease next week. US log imports resumed on November 10, supplementing species like Douglas - fir. The New Zealand FOB price in November rose to $115 - 119, but high - price transactions were weak [3] - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of 13 ports was 62,800 cubic meters, down 2.48% week - on - week. Demand weakened but was above the annual average. Construction site fund availability was 59.82%, up 0.12 percentage points week - on - week, with better improvement in housing projects [3] - Inventory: Total inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, up 1.41% week - on - week. Radiata pine accounted for 82% and continued to accumulate. Inventory was concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports, with significant regional differentiation [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, mainly using range - bound operations [5] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Core Logic Analysis - The current log valuation is short - term neutral. Spot prices are stable with some decline in radiata pine. The high New Zealand FOB price may be adjusted, providing limited cost support. Short - term high inventory and weak demand suppress valuation, but price may stabilize due to traders' price - holding intention, reduced arrivals next week, and restored US log imports. In the long - term, if demand remains weak and North American log supply increases, valuation may stay weakly stable. The current price has reflected some negative factors, and further downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand recovery rhythm and FOB price changes [4] Group 6: Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log arrivals in 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9 were about 571,000 cubic meters, up 16% week - on - week, a recent high. Next - week arrivals are expected to decrease. New Zealand ports shipped 400,000 cubic meters on 10 ships this week, with 360,000 cubic meters on 9 ships to China. The recovery of US log imports on November 10 will increase North American log supply in the long - term. Currently, North American log inventory is 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09% week - on - week [12] Log Inventory - As of October 31, total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, up 1.41% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, showing an obvious accumulation trend. North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09% week - on - week. Shandong and Jiangsu ports had concentrated inventory [12][15] Log Demand - As of October 31, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports was 62,800 cubic meters, down 2.48% week - on - week, indicating weakening demand. Shandong's average daily outbound volume decreased by 9.89%, while Jiangsu's increased by 4.29%. As of November 4, construction site fund availability was 59.82%, up 0.12 percentage points week - on - week, but the improvement has not fully affected log procurement [21] Log Price - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.32% week - on - week and 7.41% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce in Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 9.26% year - on - year [27] Downstream Timber Price - The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [32] Import Log Cost - New Zealand's November FOB price was quoted at $115 - 119, up $1 - 2 from October. Most traders thought it was high, and a price cut was possible within the month [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].

基本面方面,原木市场基本面维持偏弱格局未变,基本面暂无明确利多驱动。旺季预期转弱,后期港口出库量回 落,港口呈将逐步呈累库趋势。整体看,虽然外商提涨带动估值提升,但需求清淡贸易商接货意愿不强,盘面提涨 后抛单压力较大。四季度新西兰原木进口呈季节性增长,当前原木市场库存维持300万方附近，库存端虽较往年高 位有所回落。但考虑需求下滑幅度同样较大,库存绝对水平并不低。四季度中旬旺季过后,原木或将再度季节性累 库。结合信息面与基本面情况，市场短期看空情绪加剧,重回弱势运行节奏。操作上投机端观望为主,中国的特别 港务费征收取决于美国301港口费是否取消,目前双方保持谨慎态势,关注后续谈判结果是否落地。 原木盘中急跌,后市走势几何? 2025/10/27 | | 周重廷 从业资格号: F03093821 | 程也 从业资格号: F03087739 | 刘高超 从业资格号:F3011329投 | 刘丽芳 从业资格号:F03110661 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 研 | 投资咨询号: ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Research Institute: ITC Futures Research Institute [4] - Author: Yang Lulin [4] - Date: October 15, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for Radiata Pine, 3.9m Medium A is priced at 760 yuan, 5.9m Medium A at 800 yuan, 3.9m Small A at 720 yuan, and 5.9m Small A at 760 yuan [5] - In Jiangsu, for Radiata Pine, 4m Medium A is priced at 770 yuan, 6m Medium A at 800 yuan, 4m Small A at 720 yuan, and 6m Small A at 750 yuan [5] Outer - market Quotes - The outer - market quote for 4m Medium A Radiata Pine is in the range of 115 - 117 dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a 2 - dollar increase from September's 113 - 115 dollars [5] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract price is 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 15.5 yuan from the previous period; LG2601 contract price is 820 yuan per cubic meter, down 3 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Product Prices - The price of 4000*50*100 wood squares in both Shandong and Jiangsu is 1270 yuan, with no change from the previous period [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Import Volume - In August 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 130.6 million cubic meters, North American timber was 10.1 million cubic meters, and European timber was 14.8 million cubic meters; in July 2025, the corresponding figures were 145.8 million, 10.6 million, and 16.6 million cubic meters respectively [5] Shipment Volume - From September 22 - 28 to October 6 - 12, the shipment volume from New Zealand to China decreased from 35 million JAS cubic meters to 34 million JAS cubic meters [5] Inventory - On October 10, the total inventory was 299 million cubic meters; Shandong's inventory was 189 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 88 million cubic meters [5] Demand - On October 10, the daily average outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters; Shandong's outbound volume was 3.44 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 1.79 million cubic meters [5] Group 4: Core View - After the holiday, the log fundamentals weakened slightly, with a slight increase in port inventory and a decrease in outbound volume, but the sustainability of this phenomenon needs further observation [5] - Log spot prices increased steadily, mainly driven by knot - free timber and laminated timber [5] - After a sharp decline, the log futures price is below the delivery cost line, and further short - selling is not recommended [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the transition of China's trade focus from scale expansion to quality and efficiency enhancement, with futures markets playing a crucial role in this transformation [1][15][18] - The rise of "Chinese futures" is enabling domestic companies to establish pricing power in international trade, moving away from reliance on international price indices [2][3][17] - The integration of futures tools into trade practices is enhancing negotiation efficiency and reducing risks associated with price volatility, thereby fostering a more collaborative environment between upstream and downstream partners [4][8][12] Group 2 - The application of futures in various sectors, such as chemicals and agricultural products, is leading to a significant shift in pricing strategies, with domestic futures prices becoming benchmarks for international transactions [5][6][10] - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative trading models, such as basis trading and rights trading, which allow for more flexible pricing and risk management tailored to specific needs [7][9][16] - The use of futures tools is helping to stabilize supply chains by providing mechanisms for price management and risk mitigation, thus enhancing overall resilience against market fluctuations [10][11][14] Group 3 - The transition from a focus on scale to value-driven trade is seen as essential for building a strong trade nation, with futures markets serving as a foundational infrastructure for this shift [15][18] - There is a growing recognition that participation in futures markets not only aids in risk management but also serves as a means to gain competitive advantage and influence in global trade [17][18] - The development of a robust network of trade companies is crucial for enhancing China's position as a trade power, with an emphasis on improving the use of futures and derivative tools in international trade [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, logs showed characteristics of "stable spot prices, rising overseas prices, and falling inventories." Spot prices remained flat, while overseas CFR prices increased, pushing up the inverted import profit. Port inventories decreased, and the supply arrival volume dropped sharply, intensifying the short - term supply interruption risk. The demand side showed a "not - so - slack season" situation. Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend, but for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Taicang was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat week - on - week. - **Supply**: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs was 190,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 60%. The total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 2% [6]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend. However, for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply. Aggressive investors can slightly short against the previous high. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7][8] Core Logic Analysis - Not provided Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In July 2025, the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs decreased by 6 compared with June, and the total shipment volume decreased by 2%. The shipment volume to China increased by 5%. - From August 9 - 15, 2025, a total of 13 ships with 500,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters. - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the expected number of arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China was 7, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 53%. The total arrival volume was about 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 286,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 60% [16][17]. Log Inventory - As of August 8, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.52 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The North American log inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The spruce/fir inventory remained flat week - on - week. - As of August 8, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong decreased by 24,000 cubic meters compared with the previous period, that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 24,000 cubic meters, that at 3 ports in Fujian decreased by 28,644 cubic meters, that at 2 ports in Hebei decreased by 1,000 cubic meters, the inventory at Dongguan Port in Guangdong decreased by 5,000 cubic meters, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [20]. Log Demand - As of August 8, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong increased by 1.96% week - on - week, while that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 2.59% week - on - week. - As of August 12, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 58.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [25]. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Rizhao, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 5.06% year - on - year. In Taicang, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 780 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 3.70% year - on - year. In Rizhao, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and up 1.77% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/fir timber in the Shandong market was 1,750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,690 yuan/cubic meter [37]. - **Imported Log Costs**: In August 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 US dollars per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 euros per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The increase in overseas prices in August led to a decrease in traders' willingness to take delivery, and the actual transactions were average [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing complexity of the market environment and the role of futures tools, particularly the introduction of log futures, as essential for enterprises to manage risks effectively [2][3] - A company, referred to as Company A, has adopted a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" model to stabilize production and manage risks, serving as a reference for similar enterprises [2][4] Market Environment - Log is a core raw material in the wood industry, widely used in construction, furniture, decoration, and pulp [3] - China is a significant player in the global wood market, leading in both consumption and imports, with New Zealand being the largest supplier, holding a 50% share [3] - Recent fluctuations in the real estate market have led to increased volatility in the log spot market, necessitating better risk management strategies for log enterprises [3] Company Strategy - Company A has established a long-term partnership with a New Zealand log supplier, securing procurement channels through long-term contracts [4] - The company faced challenges due to significant price fluctuations in the spot market, prompting a shift towards futures derivatives for risk hedging [4][5] Implementation Process - The futures risk management subsidiary designed a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" plan to optimize procurement costs for Company A [5] - Company A identified delivery profits by categorizing the logs and comparing them with the main contract prices, thus opening new profit avenues [6] Risk Management - The hedging process required dynamic tracking of basis changes and flexible strategy adjustments to minimize risks [7] - Company A addressed measurement standard discrepancies and exchange rate fluctuations to ensure effective hedging [7] Results - After implementing the hedging plan, Company A managed to procure logs at prices lower than the market rate, effectively reducing costs and stabilizing profits [8] - The company saved a total of 300,000 yuan in procurement costs, successfully mitigating the risk of price declines in the spot market [9] Industry Implications - The article emphasizes the shift of more enterprises towards using futures derivatives for risk management in response to changing market conditions [11] - The futures risk management subsidiary aims to enhance service quality and innovate tools to support enterprises in improving their risk resilience [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the log market from multiple perspectives, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. It details the current situation of the log market, such as changes in supply from New Zealand, port inventory and shipment volume, and fluctuations in spot and futures prices, along with various price differentials and other price - affecting factors [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of June 22, 30 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 24 bound for mainland China and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 10 vessels are expected to arrive in June and 20 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - A detailed list of 30 vessels including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1348 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29,800 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 474,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 420,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 202,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2317 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 819 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 28 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 35 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 7 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Spot Price - For the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 755 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The price of the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 810 yuan per cubic meter, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter to 775 yuan per cubic meter. European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4][20]. - The prices of downstream construction timber, such as 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter radiata pine, and 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter white pine/spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous week, but decreased compared to four weeks ago [22]. 3.4.2 Price Differential - Multiple price differentials are presented, including regional differentials between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine), and differentials between tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 20 +) [23][52]. 3.5 Other - As of the week of June 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,521 points, a 168 - point (-9.9%) decrease from the previous week. The related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 636 points, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure and reached a new stage low. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.172, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased slightly by 1% to 1.651 [6][55].