Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing complexity of the market environment and the role of futures tools, particularly the introduction of log futures, as essential for enterprises to manage risks effectively [2][3] - A company, referred to as Company A, has adopted a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" model to stabilize production and manage risks, serving as a reference for similar enterprises [2][4] Market Environment - Log is a core raw material in the wood industry, widely used in construction, furniture, decoration, and pulp [3] - China is a significant player in the global wood market, leading in both consumption and imports, with New Zealand being the largest supplier, holding a 50% share [3] - Recent fluctuations in the real estate market have led to increased volatility in the log spot market, necessitating better risk management strategies for log enterprises [3] Company Strategy - Company A has established a long-term partnership with a New Zealand log supplier, securing procurement channels through long-term contracts [4] - The company faced challenges due to significant price fluctuations in the spot market, prompting a shift towards futures derivatives for risk hedging [4][5] Implementation Process - The futures risk management subsidiary designed a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" plan to optimize procurement costs for Company A [5] - Company A identified delivery profits by categorizing the logs and comparing them with the main contract prices, thus opening new profit avenues [6] Risk Management - The hedging process required dynamic tracking of basis changes and flexible strategy adjustments to minimize risks [7] - Company A addressed measurement standard discrepancies and exchange rate fluctuations to ensure effective hedging [7] Results - After implementing the hedging plan, Company A managed to procure logs at prices lower than the market rate, effectively reducing costs and stabilizing profits [8] - The company saved a total of 300,000 yuan in procurement costs, successfully mitigating the risk of price declines in the spot market [9] Industry Implications - The article emphasizes the shift of more enterprises towards using futures derivatives for risk management in response to changing market conditions [11] - The futures risk management subsidiary aims to enhance service quality and innovate tools to support enterprises in improving their risk resilience [11]

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 增加 5 元/方，江苏市场报 价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 810 元/ 方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 775 元/方，较上周 增加 10 元/方。欧洲材云 杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到6月22日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有30条，其中有 ...

【原木市场动态：现货持稳，期货震荡】山东日照 3.9 米中 A 辐射松原木现货价格为 750 元/方，较昨 日持平，较上周下跌 10 元/方。 江苏太仓4 米中 A 辐射松原木现货价格为 770 元/方，较昨日跌 10 元/ 方，较上周下跌 10 元/方。 2025 年 4 月，中国针叶原木进口总量约 218.46 万立方米，月环比减少 5.69%，同比减少 14.09%。2025 年 1 - 4 月，中国针叶原木进口总量约 796.88 万立方米，同比减少 8.81%。 2025 年 5 月 19 日 - 5 月 25 日，18 港针叶原木预到船 19 条，较上周增加 5 条，周环比增加 36%；到港总量约 42.1 万方，较上周增加 14.47 万方，周环比增加 52%。分港口看，山东预到 6 条船， 到港量约 23 万方，占比 55%，到港量周环比增加 135%；江苏预到 13 条船，到港量约 19.1 万方，占比 45%，到港量周环比增加 36%。分材种看，新西兰材预到 11 条船，到港量约 38.9 万方，占比 92%，到 港量周环比增加 72%；日本材预到 8 条船，到港量约 3.2 万方，占比 ...