Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, logs showed characteristics of "stable spot prices, rising overseas prices, and falling inventories." Spot prices remained flat, while overseas CFR prices increased, pushing up the inverted import profit. Port inventories decreased, and the supply arrival volume dropped sharply, intensifying the short - term supply interruption risk. The demand side showed a "not - so - slack season" situation. Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend, but for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Taicang was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat week - on - week. - **Supply**: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs was 190,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 60%. The total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 2% [6]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend. However, for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply. Aggressive investors can slightly short against the previous high. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7][8] Core Logic Analysis - Not provided Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In July 2025, the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs decreased by 6 compared with June, and the total shipment volume decreased by 2%. The shipment volume to China increased by 5%. - From August 9 - 15, 2025, a total of 13 ships with 500,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters. - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the expected number of arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China was 7, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 53%. The total arrival volume was about 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 286,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 60% [16][17]. Log Inventory - As of August 8, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.52 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The North American log inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The spruce/fir inventory remained flat week - on - week. - As of August 8, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong decreased by 24,000 cubic meters compared with the previous period, that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 24,000 cubic meters, that at 3 ports in Fujian decreased by 28,644 cubic meters, that at 2 ports in Hebei decreased by 1,000 cubic meters, the inventory at Dongguan Port in Guangdong decreased by 5,000 cubic meters, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [20]. Log Demand - As of August 8, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong increased by 1.96% week - on - week, while that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 2.59% week - on - week. - As of August 12, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 58.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [25]. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Rizhao, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 5.06% year - on - year. In Taicang, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 780 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 3.70% year - on - year. In Rizhao, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and up 1.77% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/fir timber in the Shandong market was 1,750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,690 yuan/cubic meter [37]. - **Imported Log Costs**: In August 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 US dollars per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 euros per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The increase in overseas prices in August led to a decrease in traders' willingness to take delivery, and the actual transactions were average [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing complexity of the market environment and the role of futures tools, particularly the introduction of log futures, as essential for enterprises to manage risks effectively [2][3] - A company, referred to as Company A, has adopted a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" model to stabilize production and manage risks, serving as a reference for similar enterprises [2][4] Market Environment - Log is a core raw material in the wood industry, widely used in construction, furniture, decoration, and pulp [3] - China is a significant player in the global wood market, leading in both consumption and imports, with New Zealand being the largest supplier, holding a 50% share [3] - Recent fluctuations in the real estate market have led to increased volatility in the log spot market, necessitating better risk management strategies for log enterprises [3] Company Strategy - Company A has established a long-term partnership with a New Zealand log supplier, securing procurement channels through long-term contracts [4] - The company faced challenges due to significant price fluctuations in the spot market, prompting a shift towards futures derivatives for risk hedging [4][5] Implementation Process - The futures risk management subsidiary designed a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" plan to optimize procurement costs for Company A [5] - Company A identified delivery profits by categorizing the logs and comparing them with the main contract prices, thus opening new profit avenues [6] Risk Management - The hedging process required dynamic tracking of basis changes and flexible strategy adjustments to minimize risks [7] - Company A addressed measurement standard discrepancies and exchange rate fluctuations to ensure effective hedging [7] Results - After implementing the hedging plan, Company A managed to procure logs at prices lower than the market rate, effectively reducing costs and stabilizing profits [8] - The company saved a total of 300,000 yuan in procurement costs, successfully mitigating the risk of price declines in the spot market [9] Industry Implications - The article emphasizes the shift of more enterprises towards using futures derivatives for risk management in response to changing market conditions [11] - The futures risk management subsidiary aims to enhance service quality and innovate tools to support enterprises in improving their risk resilience [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the log market from multiple perspectives, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. It details the current situation of the log market, such as changes in supply from New Zealand, port inventory and shipment volume, and fluctuations in spot and futures prices, along with various price differentials and other price - affecting factors [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of June 22, 30 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 24 bound for mainland China and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 10 vessels are expected to arrive in June and 20 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - A detailed list of 30 vessels including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1348 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29,800 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 474,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 420,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 202,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2317 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 819 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 28 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 35 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 7 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Spot Price - For the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 755 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The price of the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 810 yuan per cubic meter, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter to 775 yuan per cubic meter. European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4][20]. - The prices of downstream construction timber, such as 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter radiata pine, and 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter white pine/spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous week, but decreased compared to four weeks ago [22]. 3.4.2 Price Differential - Multiple price differentials are presented, including regional differentials between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine), and differentials between tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 20 +) [23][52]. 3.5 Other - As of the week of June 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,521 points, a 168 - point (-9.9%) decrease from the previous week. The related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 636 points, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure and reached a new stage low. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.172, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased slightly by 1% to 1.651 [6][55].

Core Viewpoint - The wood market is experiencing stability in spot prices while futures are fluctuating, with a notable decrease in import volumes and ongoing challenges in the market due to weak demand and increased port inventories [1] Price Trends - The spot price of 3.9m A-grade radiata pine logs in Rizhao, Shandong is 750 RMB/m³, unchanged from yesterday but down 10 RMB/m³ from last week [1] - The spot price of 4m A-grade radiata pine logs in Taicang, Jiangsu is 770 RMB/m³, down 10 RMB/m³ from yesterday and also down 10 RMB/m³ from last week [1] Import Volumes - In April 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs are approximately 2.1846 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 5.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.09% [1] - From January to April 2025, total imports of softwood logs are about 7.9688 million cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.81% [1] Shipping and Port Activity - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, 18 vessels carrying softwood logs are expected to arrive at 18 ports, an increase of 5 vessels week-on-week, with a total arrival volume of approximately 421,000 cubic meters, up 14.47% from last week [1] - In Shandong, 6 vessels are expected, with an arrival volume of about 230,000 cubic meters, accounting for 55% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 135% [1] - In Jiangsu, 13 vessels are expected, with an arrival volume of about 191,000 cubic meters, accounting for 45% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 36% [1] Material Types - For New Zealand timber, 11 vessels are expected with an arrival volume of approximately 389,000 cubic meters, accounting for 92% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 72% [1] - For Japanese timber, 8 vessels are expected with an arrival volume of about 32,000 cubic meters, accounting for 8% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 85% [1] Market Outlook - The main contract closed at 777.5 RMB/m³, down 2.5 RMB/m³ from the previous day, indicating a weak market sentiment [1] - Downstream processing plants are showing a need for inventory purchases, and with recent declines in spot prices, there is a short-term improvement in inventory turnover [1] - The overall expectation is for spot prices to stabilize, but the terminal market remains sluggish, with ongoing challenges from weakened real estate demand and increased port inventories [1] Strategy Recommendations - The overall sentiment in the spot market is stable but slightly weak, suggesting a cautious approach [1] - Short-term futures are experiencing significant declines, with risks related to basis inversion and delivery size discrepancies, indicating potential for valuation adjustments [1] - Aggressive investors may consider positioning for long positions based on recent lows, while options strategies should remain observational [1]