投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木期货低位运行，短期缺乏利多驱动 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-12 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木期货低位运行，短期缺乏利多驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 2026年1月5日-1月11日，中国13港新西兰原木预到船13条，较上周增加1条，周环比增加8%;到港总量约47.9万方，较上周增加7.05万方， 周环比增加17%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，12月29日-1月4日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为5.65万方，较上周减少3.09%。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，截至1月2日，国内针叶原木总库存为267万方，较上周增加13万方，周环比增加5.12%。 | | 估值 | 中性 | ...

到港增量、库存累库，原木现货企稳 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 基本面：供应端，新西兰受圣诞节假期影响发运阶段性下滑，但中国 13 港新西兰原木到港量 47.9 万方，周环比增 17%，山东到港 集中而江苏偏紧；1 月外盘价降至 110 美金 / JAS 方，贸易商春节备货带动外盘成交较好。需求端，建筑口料需求平淡，但山东集成材出 货走俏，13 港日均出库量 5.65 万方，周环比降 3.09%；建筑工地资金到位率回落，新项目占用资金及存量项目回款下滑影响采购。库存 端总库存 267 万方，周环比增 5.12%，辐射松、北美材库存增长，云杉 / 冷杉库存减少，山东、江苏等核心省份库存均有增加。 【逻辑分析】 价格方面，江苏 6 米原木因货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].