Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Log Weekly Report (LG)]: Log Futures Fluctuate Significantly Affected by Macroeconomic Sentiment [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] Group 2: Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - The supply factor is bullish. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters [4]. Demand - The demand factor is neutral. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week [4]. Inventory - The inventory factor is neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46% [4]. Valuation - The valuation factor is neutral. The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, within a reasonable range [4]. Investment View - It is more likely that the January FOB price of log futures will rise. At the same time, due to the impact of Christmas in New Zealand, the shipping volume has decreased, and it is expected to run bullishly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided. Risk focus: Domestic demand situation. Arbitrage: Not provided [4]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Review Futures Price Fluctuation - Log futures fluctuated significantly affected by macroeconomic sentiment. In the first half of the week, log futures increased in positions and declined affected by black building materials varieties, and decreased in positions and rose in the second half of the week. Some specifications in Jiangsu region increased, and the fundamentals were stable and improving [8]. Futures Position - Log positions were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,472 lots, a 1.4% increase compared to the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 11,610 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24% [15]. Spot Price - Log spot prices were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 680, 740, and 850 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 710, 760, and 940 yuan/m³ respectively. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 700, 770, and 800 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 770, 810, and 840 yuan/m³ respectively [19]. Group 4: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [24]. Shipping Volume - New Zealand's log shipping volume decreased. In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase compared to 1.892 million cubic meters in October. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [30]. Inventory - Domestic coniferous log inventory decreased. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.04% compared to the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.18% compared to the previous week [38]. Outbound Volume - The log outbound volume increased. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16.13% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.98% compared to the previous week [43]. Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of January 23, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,170 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 68.5 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 6 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week [46].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of logs is tightening, with spot prices remaining stable with a slight upward trend. The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation pattern. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and investors are recommended to go long near the previous low. Attention should also be paid to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs, while options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's log shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week due to the Christmas holiday but are expected to return to normal next week. China's port arrivals increased by 8% to 411,000 cubic meters, with concentrated arrivals in Shandong and limited arrivals in the South. Total inventory increased slightly by 0.75%, with inventory accumulating in the North and supply in the South remaining tight. On the demand side, the daily average outbound volume increased slightly by 1.77%, showing a strong - weak differentiation in overall demand [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation. The price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/cubic meter, supported by tight supply and factory winter storage, while the price in Shandong remained flat due to concentrated supply and inventory accumulation. The cost of the current round of ship - received logs has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in the February foreign quotation. The price of downstream wood squares in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu remained stable. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates with regional supply - demand differentiation and may stabilize next week to absorb the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, investors should go long near the previous low as log prices are stable with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs. For options, stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Log Supply**: In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, New Zealand's direct shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From the cumulative data of the past 4 weeks, the shipments decreased compared with the same period last month. However, next week's shipments from New Zealand ports are expected to return to normal. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 18% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 8% [18]. - **Log Inventory**: As of January 9, the total domestic log inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week. The inventory of radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce/fir changed by 0.44%, 20.00%, and - 7.14% respectively. In terms of provincial inventories, the inventories of Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hebei all increased [21]. - **Log Demand**: As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports increased by 1.77% week - on - week. The outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.29%. As of January 13, the sample construction site funds availability rate increased slightly, with the increase mainly driven by housing construction projects [25]. - **Log Price**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained flat week - on - week and decreased by 7.50% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased by 2.74% week - on - week and decreased by 7.41% year - on - year. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general spruce logs at Rizhao Port in Shandong remained flat week - on - week and increased by 10.48% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Wood Square Price**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1200 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. For 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. - **Imported Log Cost**: As of January 5, 2026, the January foreign quotation (CFR) range of New Zealand radiata pine logs is 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS square, with the main price at 110 US dollars/JAS square, a decrease of 2 US dollars/JAS square compared with December [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log futures are running at a low level, and the spot price shows signs of a certain bottom - rebound, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers overall [3][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 1 (8% week - on - week), and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters (17% week - on - week) [3] - **Demand**: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week [3][32][35] - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12% week - on - week) [3][31][32] - **Valuation**: The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, in a reasonable range [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The log futures have reached a reasonable range, but there is a lack of bullish drivers - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading and arbitrage strategies are not provided; attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The log futures fluctuated at a low level this week without a fundamental improvement. The total log futures contract positions were 15,862 lots as of January 9th, 2025, an increase of 6.15% from the previous week; the main contract positions were 11,930 lots, an increase of 4.8% [7][11] - **Spot Market**: As of January 9th, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained basically stable. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, both unchanged week - on - week [16][38] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. In November 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.7876 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 19.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.50%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 16.7954 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.84% [21] - **New Zealand Shipping Volume**: In December 2025, the number of departing ships of New Zealand logs was about 52, an increase of 3 month - on - month, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from October [26] - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.12% week - on - week; radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.56% week - on - week; North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, an increase of 42.86% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters [31][32] - **Outbound Volume**: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports increased by 3.58%, while that at Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.07% [32][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The log spot price has stabilized due to increased arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In the short - term, prices are likely to remain stable under the game of supply and demand, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of the expected increase in the FOB price in February and the recovery rhythm of terminal construction demand [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's shipments decreased due to the Christmas holiday, but the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 479,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17%. The arrivals in Shandong were concentrated while those in Jiangsu were tight. The January FOB price dropped to $110 per JAS cubic meter, and traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling led to good FOB transactions. On the demand side, the demand for construction timber was flat, but the shipments of laminated wood in Shandong were popular. The daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. The capital availability rate of construction sites declined, affecting procurement. The total inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%, with the inventory of radiata pine and North American timber increasing and that of spruce/fir decreasing, and the inventory in core provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu increasing [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, with both supply and demand being weak and cost support, aggressive investors can go long near the previous low. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Core Logic Analysis - The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: In December 2025, about 55 ships departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 6 ships, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from November. 42 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from November. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship (10,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships (300,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, an increase of 2 ships (80,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 8% increase from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, a 17% increase from the previous week [19] - **Log Inventory**: As of January 2, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.56%. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 42.86%. The spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 6.67%. The total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period, and the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 508,756 cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22] - **Log Demand**: As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3.58%, and the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 11.07%. As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points [26] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.33%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 730 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,160 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year increase of 10.48% [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,240 yuan per cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,800 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [36] - **Import Log Costs**: As of January 5, 2026, the January FOB (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].