来源：第一财经 美联储立场能否缓和人工智能泡沫担忧。 上周美股持续承压，三大股指最大回撤一度超过5%，技术面发出强烈短期看空信号。 这种市场紧张情绪从一个月期隐含波动率攀升可见一斑，恐慌指数VIX触及近七个月高位。值得关注的 是，即使英伟达发布强劲财报且CEO黄仁勋发表乐观评论，但未能持续扭转负面势头。投资者仍对AI 龙头企业的上涨行情及其超出当前财务与生产能力的投资公告存疑。虽然在纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放 鸽派信号后，市场有所企稳，外界将继续权衡货币政策前景，若AI相关担忧持续发酵，风险资产恐难 实现有意义的反弹。 降息前景峰回路转 随着联邦政府结束停摆，官方经济数据开始逐步恢复披露。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，9 月就业报告 虽具滞后性，但仍能让人稍感安心 ——政府停摆前劳动力市场并未出现崩溃迹象，在一定程度上缓解 了8月就业数据下修带来的冲击。失业率上升至 4.4%，但这一增长并非全是坏消息 ——部分原因是劳 动力规模连续第二个月实现稳健增长。核心劳动年龄人口（25-54 岁）的劳动力参与率及就业人口占比 均保持稳定。 然而，数据披露回归正 ...

降息前景峰回路转 随着联邦政府结束停摆，官方经济数据开始逐步恢复披露。 颇受瞩目的9月非农就业人数新增11.9万人（市场共识预期为5.5万人），为 4月以来最佳表现，中断了6 个月平均增速连续五个月放缓的趋势。这一结果出炉之际，恰逢劳动力需求经历低迷期、且7-8月非农 就业数据累计下修3.3万人。不过，报告同时显示失业率攀升至4.4%（环比上升0.1个百分点），为2021 年9月以来最高水平，高于充分就业预估。 与此同时，截至11月15日当周，美国初请失业金人数从之前一周的22.8万人降至22万人，低于经济学家 预期的22.7万人；持续申领失业金人数从194.7万人升至195.7万人，创四年新高。 密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值从 50.3 升至 51.0，但仍为历史次低水平；经济现状指数暴跌12.8%，至 历史新低51.1。未来一年通胀预期从4.6%小幅回落至4.5%，连续三个月下降，长期通胀预期从3.9%降至 3.4%。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，9 月就业报告 虽具滞后性，但仍能让人稍感安心 ——政府停摆前劳动力市场并未出现崩溃迹象，在一定程 ...

上周美股持续承压，三大股指最大回撤一度超过5%，技术面发出强烈短期看空信号。 这种市场紧张情绪从一个月期隐含波动率攀升可见一斑，恐慌指数VIX触及近七个月高位。值得关注的 是，即使英伟达发布强劲财报且CEO黄仁勋发表乐观评论，但未能持续扭转负面势头。投资者仍对AI 龙头企业的上涨行情及其超出当前财务与生产能力的投资公告存疑。虽然在纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放 鸽派信号后，市场有所企稳，外界将继续权衡货币政策前景，若AI相关担忧持续发酵，风险资产恐难 实现有意义的反弹。 降息预期出现剧烈波动，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具数据显示，市场预期美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）12月降息25个基点的概率从此前的39%升至约70%。 预期转变源于纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams）的表态。作为美联储主席鲍威尔的亲密盟友，他 表示政策制定者有空间进一步降息，以支持正在降温的就业市场。"我认为当前货币政策处于温和限制 性区间，尽管相比近期行动前有所缓和，"威廉姆斯称，"因此，我仍认为近期有进一步调整联邦基金利 率目标区间的空间，使政策立场更接近中性水平，从而维持实现两大政策目标的平衡。" 施瓦茨向 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has optimized the ETF registration and listing review process, removing the requirement for a no-objection letter from the stock exchange for ETF registration [2] - Fund managers can now directly apply for registration with the CSRC for ETFs tracking mature indices, streamlining the process for product launch [2] Group 2 - Nvidia reported record sales of $57 billion for the October quarter, a 62% increase year-over-year, alleviating concerns about an AI bubble [3] - The company raised its revenue forecast for the current quarter to $65 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a delay in the release of the October employment report due to the government shutdown, which will now be combined with the November report [4] - This delay reduces the information available to the Federal Reserve for assessing economic conditions before its final policy meeting of the year [4] Group 4 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, leading to a suspension of trading for all three companies [5][6] - The suspension is expected to last no more than 25 trading days [6] Group 5 - The enthusiasm for entering the market continues to rise, with over 10,000 new private equity funds registered this year, primarily focusing on stock strategies [7] - Equity ETFs have seen significant net subscriptions, totaling approximately 484.69 billion yuan in November alone [7] Group 6 - Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have signed a strategic partnership agreement in artificial intelligence, focusing on semiconductor supply, AI infrastructure, and high-value investments [8] - This partnership aims to leverage the complementary advantages in energy resources and technology ecosystems to drive innovation and economic prosperity [8] Group 7 - The Dutch government has suspended an administrative order affecting the control of Nexperia by Wingtech, indicating ongoing developments in the semiconductor sector [10] - The situation has seen significant shareholder reductions recently, highlighting potential volatility in the company’s governance [10] Group 8 - The Chinese government is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with a projected deficit rate around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas for major projects [15] - Analysts predict that the economic growth will stabilize, with a focus on structural adjustments in supply and demand [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing investment interest in the Hong Kong technology sector, particularly through the Hang Seng Tech ETF, despite concerns over the "AI bubble" [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has seen a significant inflow of funds, accumulating 1.162 billion yuan this week, with a net inflow of 793 million yuan on November 25, marking a new high in the past nine trading days [1] - The fund's share has increased for seven consecutive trading days, reaching a total of 56.841 billion yuan, a record since its inception on May 24, 2021 [1][2] Group 2 - Among the 15 companies in the Hang Seng Tech Index that have reported their Q3 results, 14 achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and 11 reported year-on-year net profit growth, indicating strong performance [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, which the ETF closely tracks, includes 30 companies from various technology sectors, and its current price-to-earnings ratio is 21.84, which is lower than that of the Nasdaq and ChiNext indices, suggesting potential investment value [2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF is recognized as a key tool for investors looking to allocate resources in Hong Kong's technology sector, with over 220,000 account holders as of the latest mid-year report [2]