人民财讯12月12日电，香港贸易发展局在最新的出口展望中预测，香港出口在2026年有望增长8%至 9%，延续2025年优于预期的表现。据预测，2026年的增长动力主要来自人工智能相关电子产品的强劲 需求。目前电子产品占香港出口总值逾七成。另外，香港贸易发展局公布2025年第四季出口信心指数调 查结果显示，现状指数(51.4)和预期指数(51.9)均保持在50点分水岭以上，显示出口有望持续增长。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港贸发局公布第四季出口信心指数调查，预期明年香港出口将同比增长8%至 9%，主要受惠人工智能相关电子产品的强劲需求。 范婉儿又指，中国内地出口至美国的商品将面的关税税率，相比之前有所减少。目前的额外税率，使许 多中国供应商，能够保持与东南亚同业相若的竞争力。 调查发现，53.2%受访出口商认为AI或新科技相关电子消费品需求上升，将成为推动明年业务增长主要 动力，目前电子产品占香港出口总值逾70%。 另外，季内香港出口信心现状和预期指数按季均出现回落，现状指数由第3季的53.3跌至51.4，预期指数 则由54.3降至51.9，但仍保持在50点以上的扩张区间，显示出口有望保持增长。 香港贸发局研究总监范婉儿表示，明年全球出口前景有望变得较明朗，主要受惠中美于11月达成贸易协 议，美国关税已不再是香港出口商明年关注的三大问题之一。 ...

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is attributed to increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic products, especially AI-related devices, seeing a quarterly trade increase of 7%, while electric and hybrid vehicles grew by 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing driven by green and technological transitions, particularly in renewable energy equipment and AI-related products [3] Group 3: China's Role - As the world's largest goods trader, China significantly influences global trade dynamics, contributing notably to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have propelled global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - China's investments in the new energy vehicle sector have boosted its manufacturing exports and increased its share in global automotive trade, while also enhancing trade ties with developing countries through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is driven by increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, global South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic product trade increasing by 7% quarter-on-quarter, and electric and hybrid vehicles seeing trade growth of 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing, especially in renewable energy equipment and AI-related electronics, supported by ongoing green and technological transitions [3] Group 3: China's Role - China, as the largest goods trader globally, plays a crucial role in shaping global trade dynamics, contributing significantly to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have bolstered global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - Investments in the new energy vehicle sector have enhanced China's manufacturing exports, increasing its share in global automotive trade, while also diversifying trade markets through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]