杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 2025年行情已经收官。盘点全球资本市场的表现，多国股市延续了2024年的涨势。2025年在全球央行掀 起降息潮，释放充分预流动性的背景之下，全球股市多数出现上涨。在4月份特朗普关税政策的冲击之 下，全球股市一度出现大幅调整，甚至推动美股等多国股市陷入技术性熊市。 相对而言，A股和港股仍然处于历史平均估值之下，A股、港股特别是科技股的牛市还会延续。得益于 政策支持、外资流入以及居民储蓄向资本市场大转移，A股和港股在2026年将有望向上，预计上升 10%-20%左右。科技股依然会是投资主线之一；新能源、消费、白马股、军工有色等多个板块将会联 动，市场的赚钱效应明显提升，投资者的获得感增强。 2025年，A股市场呈现出哑铃型的结构，一方面是低估值、高股息的银行股大涨，带动指数向上突破 4,000点，另一方面就是科技成长股大涨，以人形机器人芯片、半导体算力算法、固态电池为代表的科 技股依然在2026年有进一步上升的机会。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，科技创新依然是重要主题 在2025年，传统板块，即哑铃的中间部分，几乎没有上涨，很多板块甚至出现下跌。在2026年，市场的 资金 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to end a two-month adjustment period and enter a new upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3400-point mark and trading volume increasing significantly [1] - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by US President Trump has positively impacted global capital markets, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices and a slight decline in gold prices [1] - The second quarter of the A-share market has shown a fluctuating trend, with the index oscillating between 3100 and 3400 points, and there is potential for a breakout in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The technology sector has seen a resurgence, particularly in humanoid robot chips, semiconductors, and autonomous driving stocks, indicating strong investor interest and alignment with national policy on technological innovation [2] - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to create significant demand through its wide application across industries, improving efficiency and potentially transforming business models [2] - Traditional consumer stocks, such as branded liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, and food and beverage products, are attracting long-term investment interest due to their stable performance and attractive valuations after years of adjustment [3] Group 3 - Many consumer goods companies are increasing their dividend payout ratios, with some distributing over 70% of profits as cash dividends, making them appealing to long-term investors [3] - The current market environment presents a good opportunity for value investing, especially when there are divergences in market sentiment [3] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]