Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313), highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth as core customer orders normalize, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and improved profitability by 2026 [1] Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends, particularly with Nike and Fast Retailing, are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's inventory in North America has normalized, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026; Fast Retailing projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well across regions [1] - Other customers are also expected to see healthy order growth, with PUMA currently in a stabilization phase [1] Product Categories - The leisure category is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 expected to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1] Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2] - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter Indonesia [2] Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional sportswear is expected to continue growing, providing long-term order support for the company [3] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance collaboration with leading sports brands, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [3]

Group 1: Product Potential and Innovation - The company is focusing on the development of oatmeal and composite products, which have shown high growth and consumer acceptance [1] - The company plans to continue launching new health-oriented products, including traditional Chinese medicine and wellness items [1] - There is an emphasis on enhancing the leisure attributes of oatmeal products to expand into more casual consumption channels [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company is recognized as the leading oatmeal brand in China, with a strong brand influence and consumer trust [2] - A diversified product matrix is being developed, including innovations in oatmeal milk, protein powder, and oatmeal porridge [2] - The company maintains a comprehensive online and offline sales network, with a strong presence in e-commerce, holding the top position in the oatmeal category [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - The company expects a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, supported by a favorable market outlook for the oatmeal industry [2] - The company is actively managing raw material costs and optimizing supply chain efficiency to mitigate cost pressures [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Position and Industry Trends - The company holds the number one position in the Chinese oatmeal market, with both online and offline sales leading the industry [5] - The breakfast food market in China is valued at approximately 100 billion, with oatmeal showing faster growth [5] - The market share of the top three companies in the oatmeal industry in China is around 51%, indicating room for increased concentration compared to Japan (82%) and the USA (66%) [5]