人民财讯1月9日电，据海南矿业（601969）消息，1月8日，马里布谷尼锂矿生产的3万吨锂精矿运抵海 南洋浦港。这批锂精矿将供应给洋浦新材料产业园的星之海锂盐厂，标志着海南矿业真正实现"自有优 质矿山+高品质先进加工产线"的一体化产业链闭环。该批锂精矿是海南全岛封关后，洋浦港首票以"零 关税"申报入境的新能源矿产。 ...

业绩增长主要源于：（1）镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产； （2）下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放，"产品领先、成本领 先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB钴价（标准级）均价为23美元/磅，环比 +45%；2025Q4国内碳酸锂均价8.8万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12万吨金属镍Pomalaa项目已开工，硫酸锂项目有望进一步降本 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 华友钴业于2026年1月5日公告2025年业绩预增公告，预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东净利润58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长40.8%-55.2%；实现归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益 ...

2026 年 1 月 6 日 公司研究 一体化产业链优势凸显，2025Q4 单季度净利润有望创历史新高 ——华友钴业（603799.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 要点 事件 :华友钴业于 2026 年 1 月 5 日公告 2025 年业绩预增公告，预计 2025 年实 现归属于上市公司股东净利润 58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长 40.8%-55.2%；实现归 属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益净利润 57-63 亿元，同比增长 47.6%-66%。 2025Q4 预计可实现归母净利润 16.3-22.3 亿元，中值为 19.3 亿元，环比+28%， 同比+70%。 点评： 业绩：印尼华飞镍项目投产，一体化产业链优势释放。业绩增长主要源于：（1） 镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产；（2） 下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放， "产品领先、成本领先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB 钴价（标准级）均价为 23 美元/磅，环比+45%；2025Q4 国内碳酸锂均价 8.8 万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12 万吨金属 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt has signed a binding memorandum of understanding with a well-known international client to supply 79,600 tons of ternary precursor products, enhancing its market share in the lithium battery new energy materials sector [1][4]. Group 1: Supply Agreements - The memorandum stipulates that Huayou Cobalt will supply a total of 79,600 tons of ternary precursor products through its subsidiary, with the actual supply to be confirmed in subsequent purchase agreements [4]. - This new agreement adds to the company's existing contracts, bringing the total supply for the year to 371,400 tons [6]. - Previous agreements include a framework contract with EVE Energy for 127,800 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials and contracts with LG Energy Solution for 76,000 tons of ternary precursors and 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, with a net profit of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [8]. - By the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 58.941 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.57% and 39.59%, respectively [8]. - The company's overseas market revenue accounted for 65% of total revenue, amounting to 24.193 billion yuan, which represents a 40.94% increase year-on-year [2][8]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Huayou Cobalt has established a comprehensive integrated industrial chain, enhancing its resource security and reducing costs through localized production in overseas markets [1][8]. - The company has expanded its partnerships with major international clients, including LG Energy Solution, and has become a strategic partner for various global automotive manufacturers [7][8]. - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt has more than doubled since the beginning of 2025, reflecting strong market confidence, with a current market capitalization of 117 billion yuan [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has indicated that rising sulfur raw material costs are being passed on to end prices, reflecting an upward trend in the prices of major phosphate chemical products [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average market price for 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate is currently 6553 yuan/ton [1] - The average market price for calcium hydrogen phosphate is 3842 yuan/ton [1] - The average market price for 55% fertilizer-grade monoammonium phosphate is 3614 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Company Operations - The company possesses an integrated industrial chain advantage, from phosphate mining to product production [1] - Overall production and operation remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313), highlighting its solid fundamentals and potential for revenue growth as core customer orders normalize, with expectations for the company to enter a phase of supply-demand imbalance and improved profitability by 2026 [1] Customer Trends - Recent improvements in core customer trends, particularly with Nike and Fast Retailing, are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2025 to 2026 [1] - Nike's inventory in North America has normalized, leading to a positive outlook for order recovery by 2026; Fast Retailing projects a 10.3% revenue growth for FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well across regions [1] - Other customers are also expected to see healthy order growth, with PUMA currently in a stabilization phase [1] Product Categories - The leisure category is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 expected to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1] Long-term Asset Investment - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2] - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in 2025 [2] - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter Indonesia [2] Industry Growth Potential - The demand for functional sportswear is expected to continue growing, providing long-term order support for the company [3] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance collaboration with leading sports brands, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as one of Asia's largest integrated knitwear manufacturers, is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2026, driven by improving trends among core clients such as Nike and Fast Retailing [1][2]. Client Trends - Recent improvements in Nike's operations and normalized inventory levels in North America suggest a strong order recovery, with expectations for healthy growth in orders by 2026 [1]. - Fast Retailing is guiding for a 10.3% revenue growth in FY2026, while Adidas continues to perform well, indicating strong order growth for the company [1]. - PUMA is currently in a transitional phase, with stable short-term orders anticipated, while other clients are expected to see healthy growth in order volumes [1]. Product Categories - The leisure category is projected to grow rapidly in 2025, with significant events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup in 2026 likely to accelerate growth in the sports category, although the proportion of leisure products may decrease compared to 2025 [1]. Long-term Capacity and Market Position - The company has consistently invested in long-term asset construction, leading to a unique integrated supply chain that is expected to enhance market share [2]. - By the end of 2024, the workforce is projected to reach 103,000, a 12% increase year-on-year, with further growth expected in 2025 [2]. - The company is expanding overseas capacity, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which currently account for over 50% of garment production capacity, with plans to enter the Indonesian market [2]. Industry Growth Potential - The global and Chinese sportswear markets are expected to benefit from increasing penetration rates, providing long-term order demand growth for the company [2]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its superior fabric development capabilities to enhance product collaboration with clients, strengthening competitive advantages [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 31.61 billion, 35.15 billion, and 39.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 11.2%, and 11.1% respectively [3]. - Gross margins are projected to improve, with estimates of 27.4%, 28.2%, and 28.3% for the same years, as efficiency gains from new hires offset initial cost increases [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.47 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.29 billion yuan, with net profit margins of 20.5%, 21.2%, and 21.2% respectively [3]. Investment Outlook - The company's stock performance has diverged from Nike's since Q2 2025, with expectations for a recovery in core client orders leading to a phase of capacity-driven growth and improved profitability in 2026 [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.4 times for 2026, with a reasonable target PE of 15 times, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt has signed a long-term product supply framework agreement with EVE Energy, focusing on supplying high-nickel ternary cathode materials for electric vehicle batteries, which is expected to enhance the company's position in the European electric vehicle supply chain [1][2] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates that from 2026 to 2035, Huayou's Hungarian plant will supply approximately 127,800 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials to EVE Energy's Hungarian facility, with an estimated supply of about 126,500 tons from 2027 to 2031 [1] - The agreement is part of a broader strategy to deepen cooperation with EVE Energy and strengthen Huayou's core competitiveness in the lithium battery new energy industry [1][2] Group 2: Previous Collaborations - Huayou Cobalt and EVE Energy have been strategic partners since 2020, collaborating on the development of cathode materials for large cylindrical batteries, which have now entered a significant production phase [2] - In addition to the agreement with EVE Energy, Huayou Cobalt has also signed a supply agreement with LGES for a total of approximately 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials from 2026 to 2030 [3] Group 3: Business Performance - Huayou Cobalt has reported strong financial performance, with revenue reaching 58.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year, both achieving historical highs for the same period [3] - The company has optimized its product structure, with a 17.68% year-on-year increase in the shipment of ternary cathode materials, and over 60% of shipments being high-nickel products [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper is set to distribute a mid-term dividend of 826 million yuan, marking its first mid-term dividend payout since 2012 [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper has cumulatively distributed cash dividends of 23.564 billion yuan since its listing, which is more than double its total equity financing amount [4][9]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of over 6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 20% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders has been consistently increasing since 2021, with cumulative net profit since listing amounting to approximately 81.653 billion yuan [5][11]. Dividend Distribution - The upcoming dividend will be distributed only to A-share shareholders, with a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share based on a total of 2.065 billion shares [8][10]. - This mid-term dividend is the second in the company's history since its A-share listing, with the last one occurring in 2011 [8][11]. Operational Strengths - Jiangxi Copper is the largest copper production base in China, processing over 2 million tons of copper products annually and also being a major producer of by-product gold and silver [4][14]. - The company has a complete integrated industrial chain and significant technological advantages, contributing to its cost advantages [14][16]. - The company has maintained a strong financial operation with robust debt repayment capabilities [6]. Resource and Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, Jiangxi Copper's owned resources include approximately 8.899 million tons of copper and 239.08 tons of gold [14]. - The company has a production capacity of 98.33 tons of gold and 1,000 tons of silver annually, along with 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper and 1.3 million tons of sulfuric acid [14][15]. Research and Development - Jiangxi Copper has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures rising from 4.793 billion yuan in 2021 to 6.012 billion yuan in 2024 [16].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the projected net profit for China Hongqiao (01378) at 25-27 years at 25.625/25.426/25.760 billion yuan, with a target price of 35.22 HKD based on a 12X PE for 2025, reflecting the company's strong dividend attributes and its unique position in the Hong Kong electrolytic aluminum market [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - China Hongqiao has a current alumina production capacity of 19 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons, benefiting from an integrated industrial chain that mitigates the impact of declining alumina prices [1] - The company has repurchased 1.87 million shares for 2.6 billion HKD in the first half of the year and plans to initiate a new round of share buybacks with a total amount not less than 3 billion HKD, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 45% for the past three years, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4%, indicating confidence in future growth and a focus on investor returns [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained, leading to a significant slowdown in production growth, while demand from sectors like automotive and power grids remains robust, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the global electrolytic aluminum market by 2026 [4] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to continue expanding, with the company's performance likely benefiting from the upward trend in electrolytic aluminum profits, offsetting any potential drag from the alumina segment [4]