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IEA:全球氢能产业仍有望大幅增长
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-23 09:29
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects significant growth in the global low-carbon hydrogen industry by 2030, despite recent project cancellations and ongoing cost challenges leading to a nearly 25% reduction in announced project reserves [1] - The IEA's report indicates that the global low-carbon hydrogen production could reach 37 million tons by 2030, a decrease from the previous estimate of 49 million tons [1] - The IEA emphasizes that the growth of low-carbon hydrogen has not met the expectations set by the industry and governments due to high costs, demand uncertainties, and slow infrastructure development [1] Group 2 - By 2030, the capacity of operational, under-construction, or final investment decision (FID) low-carbon hydrogen projects is expected to grow more than fivefold compared to 2024, reaching over 4 million tons [1] - The number of projects that have completed FID has increased by 20% year-on-year, accounting for 9% of the total project reserves for 2030 [1] - The International Hydrogen Council reports that the capacity of low-carbon hydrogen projects with completed FID has surpassed 6 million tons per year, with over 500 projects receiving a total funding commitment of $110 billion [1] Group 3 - In 2024, global hydrogen demand is projected to approach 100 million tons, reflecting a 2% increase from 2023, consistent with overall energy demand growth trends [2] - The majority of hydrogen production is still derived from fossil fuels, consuming 290 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 90 million tons of standard coal in 2024 [2] - The IEA notes significant progress in the low-carbon hydrogen economy since 2021, with over 200 committed investment projects, highlighting hydrogen's importance in achieving climate goals and enhancing energy security [2] Group 4 - Despite short-term cost pressures, the IEA anticipates that by 2030, the cost gap between traditional and low-carbon hydrogen production will narrow due to declining technology costs and rapid renewable energy development [3] - The shipping industry is encouraged to invest in technology and infrastructure to support hydrogen-based fuels, with nearly 80 ports globally already possessing strong chemical management capabilities [3] - Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant hydrogen market, with potential low-carbon hydrogen capacity projected to reach 430,000 tons per year by 2030, up from the current 3,000 tons [3]