今天分享的是：麦肯锡：2025年全球氢能指南报告（英文版） 报告共计：54页 《2025年全球氢能指南报告》由氢能理事会与麦肯锡联合发布，基于全球氢能项目数据及超70家理事会成员企业 CEO的调研访谈，梳理了全球氢能产业首轮成熟清洁氢能项目的发展成果与经验，分析了产业现状、区域格局及 未来发展核心挑战。 目前全球清洁氢能已敲定的投资超1100亿美元，对应510个项目，较去年增长350亿美元，年复合增长率超50%， 已落地产能达600万吨/年，其中100万吨/年已投入运营，2030年潜在供应能力有望达900-1400万吨/年。产业正从 项目集中宣布期进入成熟化筛选阶段，过去18个月超50个项目公开取消，以早期可再生氢能项目为主，政策不确 定性、融资难题是主要原因。 区域发展呈现差异化格局，中国凭借顶层政策支持和国企布局，占据全球55%的可再生氢能承诺产能，电解槽部 署规模全球领先；北美依托低成本天然气和CCS基础设施，成为低碳氢能核心产区，以出口为主；欧洲是政策驱 动的需求中心，2030年清洁氢能需求占全球预期近三分之二，未来将逐步成为净进口地区；印度、中东等地区则 凭借资源优势，聚焦可再生氨生产与出口。 需求 ...

2026年，全球氢能产业将迎来一次以经济性和可持续性为核心标准的系统性"筛选"。 在经历政策密集出台与市场预期快速抬升之后，全球氢能产业正步入一个更为理性且更为关键的发展阶段。国际能源研究机构伍德麦肯 兹最新发布氢能市场展望报告指出，2026年将成为全球氢能产业由"政策愿景驱动"转向"政策与市场双轮驱动"的重要分水岭，真正具 备商业可行性的项目将加速落地，而缺乏稳定需求支撑、仅依赖政策预期的项目则可能陷入停滞甚至被迫调整。 在这一轮全球重估中，区域分化特征愈发显著——欧盟部分工业用氢目标面临现实修正，中东以出口为导向的大型项目承压前行，而具 备完整产业链、成本控制能力和持续投资能力的市场正逐步显现比较优势。伍德麦肯兹在报告中明确指出，中国已从早期的技术探索者 和示范推动者，转变为全球清洁氢能发展的关键驱动力量，其在规模化部署、成本下降和产业成熟度方面的进展，正在深刻影响全球氢 能产业的演进路径。2026年，全球氢能产业将迎来一次以经济性和可持续性为核心标准的系统性"筛选"。 增长逻辑改变 伍德麦肯兹指出，在经历了2024年的普遍乐观与2025年的现实调整之后，全球氢能产业正面临一次根本性再评估。202 6年， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the global clean hydrogen industry has transitioned from an initial hype phase to a more mature phase focused on practical implementation, driven by policy support and demand certainty [1][4][22] Investment and Project Scale - Global clean hydrogen investments have surpassed $110 billion, increasing by $35 billion from the previous year, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% [1][22][29] - There are over 1,700 clean hydrogen projects globally, with 510 projects having reached final investment decision (FID), under construction, or operational [1][22][29] - The cumulative committed capacity has reached 6 million tonnes per year (mtpa), with 1 mtpa already operational [22][31] Regional Development Disparities - China leads in renewable hydrogen electrolysis deployment, accounting for 55% of global committed capacity, with project sizes significantly larger than those in Europe and North America [2][39] - North America dominates low-carbon hydrogen production, holding 85% of global capacity, supported by low-cost natural gas and existing infrastructure [2][39] - Europe is expected to account for 65% of global policy-driven demand by 2030, although it currently relies on smaller domestic projects [2][41] Demand Dynamics - Traditional sectors such as refining and ammonia production currently dominate hydrogen demand, with 70% of the 360 mtpa of binding offtake secured in these areas [3][34] - By 2030, demand in key markets could reach 8 mtpa, with additional potential demand of 1,300 mtpa if infrastructure and cost reductions are achieved [3][34][25] Challenges and Success Factors - The industry faces challenges including high project cancellation rates, policy delays, and rising financing costs, with over 50 projects canceled in the past 18 months [3][23] - Successful projects typically exhibit six key characteristics, including strategic location, optimized capital expenditure, and strong policy support [3][4] Future Trends - The industry is expected to see a continued maturation of project pipelines, with a mix of successful project launches and the elimination of less viable projects [4][24] - Demand is anticipated to extend from traditional sectors to emerging applications, with policy implementation and infrastructure development being critical for growth [4][62]

Core Insights - The South Korean government is pushing for a complete shutdown of coal-fired power plants by 2040 and aims to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 68.8% to 75.3% by 2035 compared to 2018 levels [1][2] - The five major power generation companies in South Korea (South East, South, Central, West, and East Power) are transitioning from coal to renewable and clean energy sources, focusing on offshore wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Transition - South East Power aims to convert over 70% of its installed capacity to renewable energy under its "2040 Future Road" vision [2] - South Power has set a target of 20 TWh of carbon-free power and 3000 MW of energy conversion capacity in its "2035 Strategy" [2] - Central Power plans to achieve 30% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2035 and develop virtual power plants and long-duration storage [2] Group 2: Government Initiatives and Global Impact - The West Power aims to increase the share of renewable energy to 40% through its "RE4040" strategy [2] - East Power targets to raise carbon-free and low-carbon power generation to 17 TWh and achieve a 44% share of renewable energy by 2040, promoting hydrogen and ammonia fuels as coal alternatives [2] - The South Korean government is considering consolidating existing public enterprises and potentially establishing new renewable energy companies to enhance efficiency [2] - South Korea, as the world's seventh-largest coal power country, has joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), signaling a strong commitment to transition away from coal, which could enhance its international investment attractiveness and leadership role in the Asia-Pacific energy transition [2]

Core Insights - The global clean hydrogen sector is experiencing significant growth, with over 500 projects reaching maturity and attracting more than $110 billion in investments, marking a $35 billion increase from the previous year [1] - The industry has seen a 7.5-fold increase in announced hydrogen projects since 2020, indicating a maturation process where viable projects advance while less feasible ones are canceled [1][2] Investment and Capacity - Currently, the committed clean hydrogen projects have a total capacity exceeding 6 million tons per year, with 1 million tons already operational [2] - By 2030, the project reserves could support a clean hydrogen capacity of 9 to 14 million tons per year, despite potential delays and expected capacity losses [2] Demand and Market Dynamics - Approximately 3.6 million tons per year of clean hydrogen have been secured for binding procurement, with a potential demand of up to 8 million tons per year by 2030 as major markets clarify their policies [2] - China leads the world in hydrogen projects with a total investment of about $33 billion, accounting for over 50% of global renewable hydrogen production [2] Industry Confidence - Despite structural challenges, the industry remains optimistic about the future of hydrogen, with 74% of surveyed companies indicating stable or increased investment intentions over the past two years [2] - A significant 97% of companies believe hydrogen will be a key decarbonization solution for hard-to-abate sectors, and 83% expect continuous growth in the industry [2]

Core Insights - The global hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant project cancellations and delays due to insufficient demand, high costs, and strategic adjustments by companies [1][2][3] - Major developers are reassessing their commitments made during the industry's optimistic early phase, focusing on core businesses and reducing high-risk hydrogen investments [1][2] - Government support is crucial for bridging the cost gap and aiding early adopters in the hydrogen sector, as many projects rely heavily on subsidies and public funding [2][3] Group 1: Project Cancellations and Delays - Approximately 48% of the canceled hydrogen capacity, equating to about 6 million tons per year, is attributed to strategic adjustments by developers [1] - Lack of strong demand has led to 13% of project cancellations, with actual demand growth falling short of market predictions due to low willingness to pay and regulatory uncertainties [1] - The high costs associated with clean hydrogen indirectly contribute to insufficient demand and poor return rates, leading to project cancellations even when purchase agreements are in place [1] Group 2: Cost and Regulatory Challenges - Short-term cost reductions for hydrogen projects are unlikely, as the industry is still maturing and cost estimation remains in an exploratory phase [2] - Nearly 20 hydrogen projects have been canceled due to permitting issues related to environmental impact, land use, and water supply [2] - The complexity of large-scale infrastructure projects increases the likelihood of cancellations, particularly for electrolysis, which faces challenges in securing renewable electricity from the grid [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Government Support - The initial enthusiasm for clean hydrogen is giving way to a more cautious approach, with project cancellations and delays seen as a necessary phase for the industry to gain experience [3] - New projects continue to emerge in regions like India and China, indicating ongoing interest despite challenges [3] - Strong government support, real market signals, and clearer investment guidelines are essential for bridging the gap between policy ambitions and commercial viability in hydrogen projects [3]

Core Insights - The global clean hydrogen projects are facing significant cancellations and delays due to insufficient demand, high costs, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][4] - Strategic adjustments account for 48% of the canceled capacity, approximately 6 million tons per year, as developers reassess commitments made during earlier optimistic phases of the industry [2] - A lack of strong demand has led to 13% of project cancellations, with actual demand growth falling short of expectations due to low willingness to pay and regulatory uncertainties [2] Cost and Funding Challenges - Hydrogen project costs are unlikely to decrease in the short term, and the industry remains highly dependent on subsidies and public funding [3] - Current funding mechanisms for clean hydrogen projects are insufficient to support all announced projects in the short term [3] - Policy support, such as the EU's Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III), is crucial for building sustainable business models in the hydrogen sector [3] Project Development Risks - As hydrogen projects enter deep development phases, they may face cancellation risks due to permitting and related development obstacles [3] - Approximately 20 hydrogen projects have been canceled due to issues related to environmental impact, land use, and water supply [3] - The complexity of large-scale infrastructure projects increases the challenges associated with obtaining renewable clean electricity for electrolysis [3] Industry Transition and Future Outlook - The initial enthusiasm for clean hydrogen is giving way to a more cautious approach as the industry faces real challenges [4] - Despite project cancellations, new projects continue to emerge in regions like India and China, indicating ongoing interest in the sector [4] - Bridging the gap between policy ambitions and commercial viability requires strong government support, genuine market signals, and clearer investment guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in U.S. energy policy has led to a significant slowdown in the clean hydrogen sector, causing major companies to halt their projects and resulting in substantial financial losses [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Impact - Woodside, Australia's largest independent oil and gas producer, has officially canceled its clean hydrogen project in the U.S., incurring a loss of approximately $140 million [1]. - The hydrogen market in the U.S. is expected to remain sluggish for a considerable period, as stated by the head of McKinsey's hydrogen business [1]. - The U.S. government's declaration of a "national energy emergency" and the introduction of the "Big and Beautiful" Act signal a systemic shift in energy policy, prioritizing traditional energy sources over clean hydrogen initiatives [1][3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Viability - The termination of tax credits for hydrogen projects has severely undermined the economic feasibility of these initiatives, leading to heightened uncertainty within the related supply chain [1]. - The lack of policy continuity and market certainty is identified as a critical foundation for the development of clean hydrogen [2]. - The imposition of tariffs and the "Big and Beautiful" Act are expected to disrupt material supply for clean hydrogen projects, increasing costs for renewable energy projects and ultimately reducing green hydrogen production capacity [3]. Group 3: Global Context - Despite the global trend towards clean energy development, the U.S. appears to be diverging from this direction, which could hinder its ability to address climate change and promote energy transition effectively [3].

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a surge in global clean hydrogen investment, projected to reach $7.8 billion in 2025, a 70% increase from 2024 [1] - Investment growth in clean hydrogen is driven by two main areas: electrolysis projects expected to attract $6 billion and natural gas hydrogen production with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology projected to reach $1.8 billion [1] - The rise in hydrogen investment is supported by unprecedented policy backing and expanding market demand, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors like steel, chemicals, and heavy transport [2] Group 2 - If all hydrogen projects with final investment decisions (FID) are realized, global hydrogen production capacity could soar to approximately 7.5 million tons by 2035, nearly a 15-fold increase from current levels [2] - The hydrogen industry is expected to exhibit a "multipolar" characteristic, with Northwest Europe emerging as an innovation hub, supported by collaborative projects like the hydrogen pipeline between Germany and Denmark [2] - Despite the investment boom, the hydrogen sector faces challenges such as policy coordination, infrastructure deficits, and high technology costs, with a carbon price of over $140 per ton needed for CCUS blue hydrogen to compete with traditional hydrogen production [3]

Group 1 - Clean hydrogen plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero emissions in the Asia-Pacific region by 2050, particularly in high-carbon industries like steel, chemicals, and aviation [1][10][14] - The demand for hydrogen in the Asia-Pacific is projected to reach 67 million tons by 2030 and 235 million tons by 2050, with industrial sectors dominating the demand [1][11] - China and India are expected to account for 80% of the region's hydrogen demand, but domestic supply may not fully meet this demand, necessitating imports [1][11][14] Group 2 - The global hydrogen market is anticipated to reach $1.2 trillion by 2050, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 50% of this market [1][14] - Green hydrogen will be the primary supply form, expected to exceed 85% by 2030 and 95% by 2050, while blue hydrogen may play a transitional role [1][14] - The Asia-Pacific region will need to import 18 million tons of clean hydrogen and derivatives by 2030, increasing to 53 million tons by 2050, leading to a cross-border trade scale of $145 billion per year [1][14] Group 3 - An estimated $3.2 trillion investment is required in the hydrogen value chain over the next 25 years in the Asia-Pacific, with 52% allocated to renewable energy generation and transmission [2][25] - Australia is projected to be a major exporter, requiring over $300 billion in investments to meet regional demand [2][25] - Key factors for the development of hydrogen trade corridors include geopolitical stability, simplified foreign investment processes, and supply chain integration [2][28] Group 4 - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for the development of clean hydrogen in the Asia-Pacific, with $44.5 billion in policy support already announced [2][38] - Challenges include inconsistent certification standards, balancing blue and green hydrogen pathways, and coordinating cross-border pricing [2][41] - The experience of Europe in promoting hydrogen applications through carbon pricing and subsidies may provide valuable insights for the Asia-Pacific region [2][45] Group 5 - China is emerging as a leader in clean hydrogen, with a production capacity expected to reach 120,000 tons per year by 2024 and over 30% of global hydrogen stations [3][49] - The cost advantage in China's clean hydrogen production is driven by abundant renewable energy resources and significant electrolyzer manufacturing capacity [3][50] - The establishment of hydrogen trading platforms in regions like Shanghai aims to facilitate certification, pricing, and market circulation of clean hydrogen [3][52]