Summary of Key Points from 嘉友国际 Conference Call Company Overview - 嘉友国际 reported a revenue of 12.18 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.94% with a gross profit of 3.6 billion yuan, up 18.78% [2][3] - The company’s cross-border multimodal transport logistics services generated revenue of 12.18 billion yuan, a growth of 13.94% [3] - The land port operation projects achieved revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, increasing by 34.35% with a gross profit growth of 40.43% [2][3] Supply Chain Trade Business - Supply chain trade business revenue was 25.34 billion yuan, down 24.13% due to a 40% drop in the price of imported coking coal [2][3] - Despite the price drop, the import volume of coking coal increased by nearly 70%, and sales volume grew by over 15% [3] Market Conditions - The Mongolian coking coal market experienced extreme price drops in the second half of 2024, but is expected to stabilize and gradually recover [5] - Current inventory levels of Mongolian coking coal are normal, with approximately 200,000 tons domestically and 300,000 to 400,000 tons internationally [19] African Operations - 嘉友国际 is expanding its logistics network in Africa, with projects in Zambia and Ndola set to commence operations soon [6][8] - The company has established a daily traffic flow of 800 vehicles through a PPP model in the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] - The construction of the Sakanya port in Zambia is expected to be completed by 2026, enhancing efficiency for regional mining companies [7] Infrastructure Development - The company is building land ports and roads in Africa, which support the development of a large logistics network and promote local economic growth [6] - In Tanzania and Namibia, 嘉友国际 is advancing port and special economic zone projects, aiming to connect more ports for efficient logistics services [8] Strategic Partnerships - 嘉友国际 has acquired a well-known fleet to enhance its logistics network across Botswana, Zimbabwe, and other regions [4][9] - The company has signed long-term agreements with ETT and established equity cooperation with MMC to secure cargo volumes [10][11] Financial Management - 嘉友国际 maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with 53% in 2024 and expected to remain high in 2025 to reward shareholders [21] - The company emphasizes strict control over capital expenditures and relies primarily on self-funding for operations and investments [22] Risk Management - The company has implemented strategies to mitigate foreign exchange risks through localized operations and a professional currency conversion system [15][18] - 嘉友国际 focuses on long-term stability rather than short-term price fluctuations in the coking coal market [25] Future Outlook - 嘉友国际 aims to continue expanding its market presence and diversify its customer base while enhancing its core competitiveness through innovative business models [27][28] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the African market, particularly in logistics and infrastructure development [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in the African land port project and a 40.4% year-on-year increase in gross profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year and 22.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year [1]. Business Structure - Supply Chain Trade: Revenue of 2.53 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 24.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 200 million yuan, down 63.9% year-on-year. The company imported nearly 3.6 million tons of coal from Mongolia, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% [2]. - Cross-Border Multi-Modal Logistics: Revenue of 1.22 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 360 million yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year. The company expanded its logistics services across multiple land ports [2]. - Land Port Project: Revenue of 310 million yuan in H1 2025, up 34.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 180 million yuan, up 40.4% year-on-year. The project is seeing steady growth in traffic and cargo volume [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 48.8% in H1 2025, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.8% based on the closing price of 11.38 yuan per share on August 26, 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.492 billion, 11.340 billion, and 11.973 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion yuan [5][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) - **Industry**: Coal and Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - Recent rebound in Mongolian coking coal spot prices by **20%** due to domestic safety and environmental regulations leading to reduced coal production, a **16%** decline in coking coal imports in Q2, and sustained high downstream procurement demand with weekly pig iron production stable above **2.4 million tons** [2][3] - Jiayou International's supply chain trading business benefits from rising coking coal prices due to a pricing time lag with upstream and downstream clients. Although long-term contract prices fell by **$7** in Q3, terminal sales prices continued to rise, indicating potential for significant improvement in profit per ton in Q3 [2][6] - Expected Q2 net profit for Jiayou International to decline by nearly **30%** year-on-year to **320 million yuan**, but showing improvement from Q1, indicating a potential bottom in performance [2][7] - Expansion plans include supply chain trading at the Ceke and Mandula ports, with expectations for growth in various African projects, including the Kasai project and the Zambia Sakanya project [2][8] Market Dynamics - Strong performance in the coking coal market attributed to: - Strict safety and environmental measures leading to reduced coal supply - Overall coking coal imports down **16%**, with Mongolian imports down **13%** - High downstream procurement demand, with stable pig iron production [5] - Positive policy developments and large-scale infrastructure investments boosting market expectations [5] Future Growth Predictions - Anticipated progress in multiple African projects over the next three years, including increased throughput at the Kasai project and the launch of the Zambia road project [4][10] - Expected improvement in supply chain trading profit margins and gross margins as coking coal prices stabilize and recover in the second half of **2025** [4][11] Cross-Border Logistics Development - Significant progress in cross-border logistics in Africa, managing over **1,000 vehicles** and establishing a network covering Southern Africa. Projected revenue growth of nearly **30%** and gross profit growth of nearly **50%** in the second half of **2024** [9] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Jiayou International increased its dividend payout ratio to **53.5%** last year, with a current dividend yield exceeding **4%**, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investors [12]

Core Viewpoint - 嘉友国际 achieved growth in key financial metrics such as revenue and net profit, but faced challenges in cash flow management and rising expenses [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue increased to 8,753,600,659.53 yuan in 2024, a growth of 25.14% from 6,995,259,911.88 yuan in 2023, driven by cross-border logistics and supply chain trade [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,276,417,070.88 yuan, up 22.88% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.31 yuan, reflecting improved profitability [3] Expense Management Summary - Sales expenses rose by 2.22% to 12,641,994.53 yuan, while management expenses surged by 94.61% to 221,504,015.24 yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of BHL and increased operational scale [4] - Financial expenses turned positive at 9,967,885.35 yuan, influenced by the consolidation of BHL and foreign exchange fluctuations [4] - R&D expenses grew by 21.65% to 27,323,004.06 yuan, indicating continued investment in innovation [4] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow decreased by 41.48% to 908,669,288.56 yuan, mainly due to increased inventory levels [5] - Investment cash flow showed a larger outflow of -1,217,790,012.63 yuan, a 125.73% increase, reflecting higher long-term equity investments [5] - Financing cash flow also increased its outflow to -546,853,894.23 yuan, up 194.96%, due to new short-term borrowings and increased dividends [5] Risk and Challenges - The company faces risks from macroeconomic fluctuations and intense market competition, which could impact operational performance [6] - Investment management risks arise from varying legal and operational environments across regions, necessitating strong integration and management capabilities [7] - Dependence on information systems for operational efficiency poses risks if not effectively maintained [9]