嘉友国际 20250827 摘要 佳友国际上半年营收 12.18 亿元，同比增长 13.94%，毛利 3.6 亿元， 同比增长 18.78%。陆港运营项目营收 3.09 亿元，同比增长 34.35%，毛利增长 40.43%。供应链贸易业务营收 25.34 亿元，同比 下降 24.13%，受焦煤价格下跌影响，但进口量同比增长近 70%。 蒙古主焦煤市场经历价格下跌后趋于平稳，预计将保持平稳回升状态。 佳友国际通过长协和股权投资锁定资源端价格风险，并灵活调整采购价 格，有效抵御了市场波动带来的影响。 佳友国际在非洲通过 PPP 模式建设陆港和道路，与刚果金签订协议，实 现日均 800 车次流量。赞比亚和恩多拉项目即将投产，上半年陆港项目 毛利增长 40%，基础设施建设支持大物流网络发展，促进当地经济增长。 佳友国际在刚果金打通重要物流通道，为非洲布局提供支撑，并与客户 和供应商建立紧密合作关系。赞比亚萨卡尼亚口岸预计 2026 年竣工， 莫坎博项目预计明年或后年初开始运营，提升区域矿业公司效率。 佳友国际在坦桑尼亚和纳米比亚扩展物流网络，推进港口及特殊经济区 项目和金湾物流园建设，计划连接更多港口，形成完整的通道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in the African land port project and a 40.4% year-on-year increase in gross profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year and 22.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year [1]. Business Structure - Supply Chain Trade: Revenue of 2.53 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 24.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 200 million yuan, down 63.9% year-on-year. The company imported nearly 3.6 million tons of coal from Mongolia, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% [2]. - Cross-Border Multi-Modal Logistics: Revenue of 1.22 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 360 million yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year. The company expanded its logistics services across multiple land ports [2]. - Land Port Project: Revenue of 310 million yuan in H1 2025, up 34.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 180 million yuan, up 40.4% year-on-year. The project is seeing steady growth in traffic and cargo volume [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 48.8% in H1 2025, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.8% based on the closing price of 11.38 yuan per share on August 26, 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.492 billion, 11.340 billion, and 11.973 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.206 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.711 billion yuan [5][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) - **Industry**: Coal and Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - Recent rebound in Mongolian coking coal spot prices by **20%** due to domestic safety and environmental regulations leading to reduced coal production, a **16%** decline in coking coal imports in Q2, and sustained high downstream procurement demand with weekly pig iron production stable above **2.4 million tons** [2][3] - Jiayou International's supply chain trading business benefits from rising coking coal prices due to a pricing time lag with upstream and downstream clients. Although long-term contract prices fell by **$7** in Q3, terminal sales prices continued to rise, indicating potential for significant improvement in profit per ton in Q3 [2][6] - Expected Q2 net profit for Jiayou International to decline by nearly **30%** year-on-year to **320 million yuan**, but showing improvement from Q1, indicating a potential bottom in performance [2][7] - Expansion plans include supply chain trading at the Ceke and Mandula ports, with expectations for growth in various African projects, including the Kasai project and the Zambia Sakanya project [2][8] Market Dynamics - Strong performance in the coking coal market attributed to: - Strict safety and environmental measures leading to reduced coal supply - Overall coking coal imports down **16%**, with Mongolian imports down **13%** - High downstream procurement demand, with stable pig iron production [5] - Positive policy developments and large-scale infrastructure investments boosting market expectations [5] Future Growth Predictions - Anticipated progress in multiple African projects over the next three years, including increased throughput at the Kasai project and the launch of the Zambia road project [4][10] - Expected improvement in supply chain trading profit margins and gross margins as coking coal prices stabilize and recover in the second half of **2025** [4][11] Cross-Border Logistics Development - Significant progress in cross-border logistics in Africa, managing over **1,000 vehicles** and establishing a network covering Southern Africa. Projected revenue growth of nearly **30%** and gross profit growth of nearly **50%** in the second half of **2024** [9] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Jiayou International increased its dividend payout ratio to **53.5%** last year, with a current dividend yield exceeding **4%**, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investors [12]

Core Viewpoint - 嘉友国际 achieved growth in key financial metrics such as revenue and net profit, but faced challenges in cash flow management and rising expenses [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue increased to 8,753,600,659.53 yuan in 2024, a growth of 25.14% from 6,995,259,911.88 yuan in 2023, driven by cross-border logistics and supply chain trade [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,276,417,070.88 yuan, up 22.88% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.31 yuan, reflecting improved profitability [3] Expense Management Summary - Sales expenses rose by 2.22% to 12,641,994.53 yuan, while management expenses surged by 94.61% to 221,504,015.24 yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of BHL and increased operational scale [4] - Financial expenses turned positive at 9,967,885.35 yuan, influenced by the consolidation of BHL and foreign exchange fluctuations [4] - R&D expenses grew by 21.65% to 27,323,004.06 yuan, indicating continued investment in innovation [4] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow decreased by 41.48% to 908,669,288.56 yuan, mainly due to increased inventory levels [5] - Investment cash flow showed a larger outflow of -1,217,790,012.63 yuan, a 125.73% increase, reflecting higher long-term equity investments [5] - Financing cash flow also increased its outflow to -546,853,894.23 yuan, up 194.96%, due to new short-term borrowings and increased dividends [5] Risk and Challenges - The company faces risks from macroeconomic fluctuations and intense market competition, which could impact operational performance [6] - Investment management risks arise from varying legal and operational environments across regions, necessitating strong integration and management capabilities [7] - Dependence on information systems for operational efficiency poses risks if not effectively maintained [9]